Page 54 - 31DEC2019E-4

Undoubtedly, even
before going for the
general election Prime
Minister Boris Johnson
had set the date for
On the eve of EU Council meeting in victory, German Chancellor Angela
Brussels on December 12, the Council Brexit for January 31, Merkel offered her country’s close
president told the media persons: “We cooperation and friendship. However,
are ready. We have decided what are 2020 when the UK the French President minced no words
priorities.” would leave the EU; in warning the UK that the more the
latter opted to deregulate its economy
ECONOMIC CHALLENGES nevertheless, he still after the Brexit, the more it will lose ac-
Some British economists have opined needs to go through cess to the EU market. Russia has also
that Brexit movement has already cast sought a “constructive dialogue” with
its long shadow over country’s eco- Parliament. According Johnson government.
nomic growth and it is going to affect to some experts, the However, US President Donald
UK economy in coming years as well. Trump is sanguine about striking a “
It is also pointed out that the UK can default position, if no massive new trade deal with the UK
expect a further 3-4 per cent hit to its deal is passed, is that after Brexit; and in a recent tweet
GDP in the long-term once the country President Trump has said: “This deal
leaves the EU on January 31. EU is the the UK will leave it has the potential to be far bigger and
biggest trading partner of the UK and more lucrative than any deal that
latter’s departure from the EU market could be made with the EU Celebrate
entails the likelihood of making the UK out the probability of a protracted Boris,” Here the question is whether
confront new obstacles to its trade and recession under any Brexit scenario, the British Prime Minister will trust
also bear the brunt of increased tariffs many analysts opine that shrinking President Trump, especially in the
on imports. of fiscal resources could make the wake of trump’s trade wars with China
Some experts have warned of a task of the Conservative govern- and some of the EU member states. .
longer-term impact on FDI as well. ment cumbersome to implement its
While disagreeing with the optimism manifesto, especially in the realms of WAY AHEAD
of Boris Johnson of defining his new public services, tax cut, public spend- The road ahead is not smooth for Boris
relationship with EU and hammering ing, NHS, international aid, education, Johnson to tread on. Pressures on the
out a far-reaching trade deal, most infrastructure etc. British economy and post-Brexit fiscal
experts are skeptical about it because Cautioning against the euphoria strains could hamper his enthusiasm
such negotiations are prone to last for over slight jump in the currency in the of implementing his electoral prom-
years. Some analysts believe that what wake of mammoth mandate, currency ises in the immediate near future.
the UK will save from not contributing strategists aver that the surge would Undoubtedly, he has got a massive
annually to the EU budget the double be contained as the UK enters the new mandate; nevertheless, he has also to
of that it will lose in public finance in and equally challenging phase of nego- deliver on the promises as well.
the long run. tiating its prospective trading relation- Enthused by its massive victory
Referring to absence of knowledge ship with the EU prior to the end of after securing 48 seats, the SNP may
about future trade deals to be entered 2020. In other words, the Conservative push for a second independence refer-
into either with the EU or other coun- government will have to wrestle with endum to which the Conservative gov-
tries, some experts also mention about economic challenges in coming weeks ernment is opposed. During his initial
unknown shocks like banking crisis, along with Brexit. months in power, Boris Johnson is ex-
stock market crash, spike in oil prices pected to be bogged down with Brexit
that can pose serious challenges for IMPACT ON FOREIGN POLICY that has earned him such a resounding
the Boris government. Allusion is also The Brexit will be impacting the British electoral victory. Other priorities may
made to recent leak of Michel Barnier’s foreign policy both in the short-term be relegated to background for the
frank assessment that can hinder the as well as in the long-term. Negotiat- time being or given scant attention till
British move to enter into a compre- ing a settlement amicably in the realm the knot of Brexit is untied.
hensive trade deal with the EU by the of trade with the EU may not affect Massive mandate has tasked Boris
deadline of December 31, 2020. relations between the UK and leading Johnson with the herculean onus of
According to some economic ana- EU member nations like Germany and defining the UK’s future role in the
lysts, a no-deal Brexit could cost the UK France; nevertheless, no trade deal world and it also delineates a massive
some 6/7 per cent of GDP over the long in the post-Brexit phase could spell transformation of British politics that
run thereby culminating in cut in the obstacles for London to straighten its will reverberate through the country
quality of public services, increase in relations with EU member states. in coming years.
unemployment, depressed wages and Conveying her felicitation to Prime
diminution in investment. Not ruling Minister Boris on his resounding LETTERS@TEHELKA.COM

54