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aside the potential conflict between India and Paki-
stan whose chances are very slim, Pulwama attack
will definitely influence the general elections,” says
the political analyst Gull Mohammad Wani. “The
attack has disrupted the development and corrup-
tion-centric election discourse that was building up
so far. In its place, security, Kashmir and Pakistan
have hurtled to the centre stage. Let us see who seizes
the narrative on these issues”.
But Wani believes that Modi with his hardline
stance on Pakistan and Kashmir could still carry the
day. “BJP has so far deftly managed to shift the focus
of the debate on Pulwama attack away from the fail-
ure of its Kashmir policy to Pakistan. It has also used
the attack to further harden its policy and the poten-
tial action. It is to be seen how opposition spotlights
government’s own failure in J&K”.
However, influencing the upcoming election is not
the only major fallouts of the Pulwama bombing and
the subsequent events: they will cast a long shadow
on Indo-Pak relations and also determine the cen-
tre’s future approach to the worsening situation in
Kashmir.
“Also, Pulwama is also going to be a factor in how
world looks at the situation in Kashmir,” says Wani.
“But while the world condemns the growing violence
in Kashmir, it will also be worried about the turn the
situation is taking in the state and its implications for
the regional peace”.
IndIa-PakIstan tIes
US, UK and France The attack has plunged India-Pakistan relations to
have asked UN to their lowest low. India has taken a series of steps to
blacklist JeM chief
punish Pakistan apart from the military strikes. It
has withdrawn the Most Favoured Nation status
unilaterally granted to the neighbour. Also, the tariff
soon veered to the option of military response to on Pakistan’s exports to India has been raised up to
Pakistan. Prime Minister Narendra Modi too left no 200 percent. It has also decided to stop its share of
one in doubt on this score. He warned the perpetra- water to the country under Indus Water Treaty. India
tors and their supporters that “every drop of tear will will also renew its efforts to isolate Pakistan at the
be avenged”. In response Pakistan Prime Minister international level.Prime Minister Narendra Modi
Imran Khan also made it clear that his country will has also said that the time for talks with Islamabad
not think before retaliating to any Indian attack. The is over now.
subsequent attacks and counter-attacks are seeing The military strikes against Jaish camp and the
the two countries staring at a fresh crisis. response from Pakistan is certain to take the situ-
Though Islamabad has vehemently denied that it ation to an entirely new level. It has threatened to
is involved in the attack, the ownership of the bomb- push the region over the brink. After Pulwama, the
ing by the Jaish which is based in Pakistani Punjab PM Modi was constrained to go one up on the sur-
has put the neighbour in the dock. The timing of the gical strikes. And there were reasons for it: Indian
attack is also significant. It was carried out in the run army’s bombing of militant launchpads in 2016 not
up to the general elections. This has left analysts puz- only was denied by Pakistan but it has had little im-
zled as to whether the deadly strike was also intend- pact on the situation on the border or inside Kashmir.
ed to influence the course of the elections or draw Besides, high-profile attacks on the security targets
New Delhi into a conflict with Pakistan. have continued unhindered. So much so, the number
“This is all in the realm of speculation. But setting of security personnel killed over the past five years

tehelka / 15 march 2019 14 www.tehelka.com