Though IT Ministry officials ruled out cyberattack, experts say there have been cases globally where telecom protocols similar to those supporting aviation communications have been exploited via cyberattacks. Technical glitches can happen due to software or hardware failures and aviation communication systems, including AMSS, are known to have certain cybersecurity vulnerabilities.
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On Friday the Indira Gandhi International Airport—India’s busiest airport—witnessed a major chaos as more than 800 domestic and international flights were delayed due to the air traffic control system’s technical issue. The technical glitch with the Automatic Message Switching System (AMSS)—which aids air traffic control in flight planning—persisted for over 15 hours, causing widespread chaos, reportedly leading to at least 20 cancellations.
The disruption began on November 6, when a failure in the AMSS—a critical component supporting ATC’s flight planning process—forced controllers to switch to manual operations. This shift significantly slowed the processing of flight plans, causing long queues at check-in counters, extended wait times on board aircraft, and stranding thousands of passengers.
According to the Airport Authority of India, the issue was detected on November 6, 2025, in the IP-based AMSS system. Immediately, the review meeting was conducted by the Secretary, MoCA, with Chairman AAI, Member ANS, and other officials, and necessary directions were given to address the issues. The OEM was engaged, and additional staff were deployed to manually process Flight Plans for the Air Traffic Control system to ensure uninterrupted and safe air traffic operations immediately
By late Friday, the AMSS system was restored, allowing flight operations to gradually return to normal, though some minor delays persisted due to the backlog, however, the unprecedented technical failure highlighted the critical role of automation in ATC, prompting an inquiry to understand the cause and prevent future disruptions.
Automatic Message Switching System
The AMSS is a specialized communication system used in ATC for managing and exchanging vital aeronautical messages. Basically, it is like a digital post office for ATC, automatically sending and receiving important flight messages, such as flight plans, weather updates, and arrival/departure details, between airports, airlines, and air traffic controllers, say experts.
“When this system works, all the information moves quickly and helps keep flights safe and on time. But if it stops working, like it did recently at Delhi Airport, controllers have to handle all that information by hand, which slows everything down and causes delays. So, in simple terms, AMSS helps air traffic controllers communicate and manage flights smoothly by automatically sharing key messages behind the scenes,” they say.
Though some suspected that the disruption could be linked to a cyberattack, it was ruled out by officials. IT Ministry officials said the disruption was “not due to a cyberattack” but according to experts there have been “cases globally where telecom protocols similar to those supporting aviation communications have been exploited via cyberattacks”. Technical glitches can happen due to software or hardware failures and aviation communication systems, including AMSS, are known to have certain cybersecurity vulnerabilities, they add.
A day after the Supreme Court directed that stray dogs be relocated from public institutions to designated shelters, Mumbai civic officials reportedly said the city has only eight shelters for an estimated 90,000 stray dogs — highlighting a major logistical challenge in implementing the order.
Meanwhile, the Humane World for Animals India—an animal protection organisation—s voiced strong concern over the directive, calling it “unsustainable and counterproductive.” The organisation said the move ignores existing laws and scientific approaches that have guided India’s animal welfare framework for decades.
“The directive lacks consideration of the law established by Parliament, the infrastructure of our public institutions, and the lives of street dogs in India. Such a sweeping order again risks displacement and death for lakhs of community dogs across India,” the group said in a statement.
It further cautioned that removing community animals from their territories and permanently relocating them to shelters — most of which do not exist — would worsen the very issue the Court aims to address. “Removing community dogs creates territorial vacuums, leading to the re-entry of unsterilised and unvaccinated dogs, increasing human–dog conflict,” it added.
Animal welfare experts argue that the Animal Birth Control (ABC) Rules, 2023, and long-standing Supreme Court judgments already recognise the sterilise–vaccinate–return model as the only sustainable and compassionate method to manage the stray dog population. “Relocating dogs to shelters is impossible at scale, given the lack of infrastructure, capacity, and resources,” Humane World for Animals said, urging the Court to consider the inputs of organisations working on the ground and the progress made through community engagement.
On Friday, the Supreme Court directed authorities to remove stray dogs from public spaces such as schools, hospitals, bus stands, railway stations, and sports complexes. The dogs are to be sterilised and vaccinated in shelters but not released back to the same locations. Municipal bodies were asked to conduct regular inspections and ensure fencing or walls around such premises to prevent re-entry.
The ruling followed rising concerns over dog bite cases and public safety incidents that have affected citizens, tourists, and India’s image abroad. The Court emphasised the need to prioritise the safety of children, the elderly, and hospital patients.
In the same judgment, the Supreme Court also ordered the removal of stray cattle from highways and expressways to reduce road accidents, directing the formation of dedicated patrol teams for enforcement.
Despite global warming, which generally raises temperature baselines, La Niña winters traditionally bring colder temperatures, and experts say the 2025-2026 winter could be notably chillier
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La Niña—the cooling phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation cycle—occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean drop below average. This shift alters wind and weather patterns globally, often bringing colder winters to northern India. This year, La Niña conditions are likely to intensify cold spells in the region, leading to more frequent cold wave days and lower night-time temperatures, according to meteorologists. According to experts, the 2025 La Niña event is likely to cause colder and longer winters in northern India with more frequent cold waves and greater snowfall in the Himalayas—requiring preparedness in agriculture, infrastructure, and public health to mitigate impacts. Basically, La Niña is a climatic phenomenon that originates far away from India but its influence on the Indian subcontinent is significant. Typically, La Niña events are associated with stronger-than-usual monsoon seasons in India. In the post-monsoon season (October to December), La Niña may also contribute to increased rainfall in parts of southern India—particularly Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, due to a more active northeast monsoon—all of which is happening.
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Temperatures generally tend to be slightly lower than average, especially during winter months. Cold waves in north India during La Niña tend to be more severe because clear skies allow rapid cooling at night, meaning that minimum temperatures could drop 2–4 degrees Celsius below normal, with cold wave conditions lasting several days when readings fall more than 4.5 degrees Celsius below normal. Meteorologists forecast that this year’s La Niña is likely to bring more intense cold waves across northern India, including Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh. These regions may experience minimum temperatures dropping below average, accompanied by longer-lasting cold spells. The colder air is driven by stronger northerly winds that carry chilly air masses from Siberia and Central Asia southward. This cold wave effect is expected to extend even to some parts of western India like Gujarat and Maharashtra, though for shorter durations. The Himalayan region will be particularly affected, with predictions of heavier snowfall and prolonged frost periods. While increased snowfall can benefit water resources and reservoirs, it also poses challenges for mountainous areas. Despite global warming, which generally raises temperature baselines, La Niña winters traditionally bring colder temperatures, which could impact agriculture by exposing winter crops like wheat, mustard, and vegetables to frost risks, and increase energy demand for heating in affected regions.
Social Security, Women and Child Development Minister Dr. Baljit Kaur said that under the leadership of Chief Minister Bhagwant Singh Mann, the Punjab Government is fully committed to the welfare of every section of society, giving special attention to the upliftment and empowerment of persons with disabilities.
Dr. Baljit Kaur informed that the Punjab Government has so far released ₹287.95 crore as financial assistance to persons with disabilities, benefitting 2,76,175 eligible beneficiaries across the state.
She further added that the government has made a budgetary provision of ₹495 crore for the financial year 2025-26 to ensure the effective and transparent implementation of this welfare scheme.
The Minister emphasized that integrating persons with disabilities into the mainstream of society is among the top priorities of the Punjab Government. Along with financial assistance, focused efforts are being made to provide them employment opportunities, skill development training, and accessible infrastructure to make them self-reliant and empowered. She said the government’s aim is not merely to provide assistance, but to enable every specially-abled person to lead a dignified and independent life.
Dr. Baljit Kaur directed the officials to ensure that the benefits of this financial assistance scheme reach every eligible beneficiary and that no deserving person is left out of this initiative.
The temporary structure of Punjab Vidhan Sabha being constructed to commemorate the 350th martyrdom anniversary of the Ninth Guru, Hind Di Chadar Guru Tegh Bahadur Ji, will be completed by November 20, announced Punjab Vidhan Sabha Speaker Kultar Singh Sandhwan while chairing a meeting with the Group of Ministers and senior officials at Virasat-e-Khalsa.
The Speaker said that this special session of the Punjab Assembly, dedicated to Guru Tegh Bahadur Ji’s supreme sacrifice, has been envisioned by the Punjab Government with the aim of spreading the Guru’s divine philosophy to every corner of the world.
He recalled that after Guru Sahib’s martyrdom in Delhi, Bhai Jaita Ji brought Guru Sahib’s sacred head to Gurdwara Bibangarh Sahib (Kiratpur Sahib). From there, Bhai Jaita Ji, along with Mata Gujri Ji and ‘Bal Guru Gobind Ji’, carried it to Sri Anandpur Sahib, where the cremation was performed. The site now stands as Gurdwara Sis Ganj Sahib.
Cabinet Minister Harjot Singh Bains stated that on November 24, a Nagar Kirtan will commence from Gurdwara Bibangarh Sahib (Kiratpur Sahib). The procession will be welcomed at various locations by ministers and MLAs. Upon its arrival at Gurdwara Sis Ganj Sahib, the special session of the Punjab Vidhan Sabha will formally begin.
Cabinet Minister Tarunpreet Singh Sond informed that special arrangements have been made for Cabinet Ministers and MLAs to stay at Bhai Sati Das Pandal, so they and their families can arrive at Sri Anandpur Sahib on November 23 and participate in the religious events with devotion.
He added that for MLAs who wish to attend the session directly, separate transport and logistical arrangements are being made to ensure smooth participation without traffic or other difficulties.
Advisor to the Tourism Department, Deepak Bali said that Cabinet Ministers and MLAs will participate in the commemorative events as humble sevadars (volunteers) along with the sangat (devotees), honoring the supreme sacrifice of Guru Sahib. He further shared that following the Assembly session, a special drone show will be organized — a unique attraction expected to captivate all devotees.
After the meeting, former Deputy Chief Minister of Delhi and Punjab In-Charge Manish Sisodia and Speaker Kultar Singh Sandhwan, along with the Group of Ministers and Tourism Department Advisor Deepak Bali, reviewed the preparations for the Vidhan Sabha session at Bhai Jaita Ji and issued the necessary directions.
Additional Chief Secretary, Parliamentary Affairs D.K. Tiwari Secretary, Water Supply Department Harpreet Singh, Secretary Tourism Department Abhinav Trikha, Special Secretary Public Works Department Hargunjeet Kaur; MD Infotech Jaspreet Singh, Director Local Government Kulwant Singh, Director Hospitality Tej Singh Saini, ADGP Surinderpal Singh Parmar, DIG Ropar Range Nanak Singh, Deputy Commissioner Ropar Varjeet Walia, SSP Ropar Gulneet Singh Khurana, Additional Deputy Commissioner Pooja Syal Garewal, Executive Engineer PWD S.S. Bhullar, Executive Engineer Public Works Vivek Dureja, Executive Engineer Water Supply Harjitpal Singh, and other senior officers were present in the meeting.
For months, US President Donald Trump has sought to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, combining traditional diplomacy with aggressive economic pressure. Central to his strategy has been targeting Russia’s energy exports, which fund its war effort. Trump has levied tariffs on nations buying Russian oil, singling out India — a major purchaser — with a 25% penalty. Yet India, along with China, has resisted cutting its imports, hampering Washington’s efforts.
The stakes escalated recently when the US Treasury imposed sanctions on two of Russia’s largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. These firms account for roughly 5% of global oil output and form a significant part of India’s imports. Firms have been given until November 21 to wind down transactions. The European Union has joined the effort, unveiling its own measures against Russian energy, marking a notable shift in Western policy. While some suggest India could replace Russian supplies with oil from the Middle East, the US, or other producers, the transition will be far from seamless. Together, India and China import around 2.8 million barrels of Russian crude per day.
Tehelka Cover Story “India’s Oil Dilemma: Navigating the Fallout of Ceasing Russian Imports” finds thatfor India, Russian oil is more than just a commodity — it is a financial lifeline. Over the past three years, imports from Russia have saved Indian refiners at least $12.6 billion. Now, both private and public sector entities must carefully weigh the risks of attracting secondary sanctions. Trump’s unpredictable approach adds another layer of uncertainty. His upcoming meeting with Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit will be closely watched, as it could influence the trajectory of sanctions and global energy markets.
India faces a delicate balancing act. While Washington presses for cuts in Russian oil imports, New Delhi must safeguard its own economic and strategic interests. Historically, India has cooperated with the US on energy matters, curtailing purchases from Venezuela and Iran in response to American pressure in the past. The imposition of a 25% tariff, combined with other diplomatic slights — including curbs on visas for Indian citizens — has made convergence on the issue even more difficult. At the same time, India cannot ignore the broader strategic context. It is negotiating a trade deal with the US while seeking to maintain strong ties with Russia, China, and other partners. The current sanctions regime forces India to reassess its energy strategy, striking a balance between commercial realities and geopolitical imperatives. The Trump administration is clearly squeezing both Russia and its energy buyers, leaving India to navigate a complex path between compliance, economic pragmatism, and national sovereignty. For India, the message is clear: energy policy remains a sovereign prerogative, but the global stakes — and Washington’s pressure — cannot be ignored.
Tehelka’s Special Investigative Story this fortnight is “Cracker ban: A loud lie,” which exposes how illegal firecracker sales, fake green labels, and zero enforcement combined to fuel Delhi-NCR’s post-Diwali air pollution crisis.
In the current political era, Bihar once again stands as India’s political laboratory. Throughout history, politics in the state has never been merely about arithmetic — it has always been about social equations, class consciousness, and the symbolism of leadership.
The 2025 Assembly Election marks a new chapter in that tradition. The difference this time is that, alongside issues, the mathematics of faces and the chemistry of alliances have become the central themes of discussion.
Both the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) are deep in preparation. But while the Mahagathbandhan has already declared its chief ministerial face — setting the stage early — the NDA remains silent on its own “CM face.”
And this silence is getting louder by the day in Bihar’s politics. The biggest question echoing through political circles is: Who will lead the NDA into battle?
The indecision between the BJP and the JD(U) is nothing new. Nitish Kumar’s administrative credibility is undisputed, but within the BJP, a new generation has emerged — one eager to see “its own Chief Minister.”
Balancing Chirag Paswan’s youthful ambition, Jitan Ram Manjhi’s experience, and the social reach of allies is no easy task. Analysts believe that the NDA’s decision to delay announcing its face is not mere hesitation — it’s a calculated suspense. Sometimes, silence in politics is itself a strategy — one that keeps the opposition unsettled and the public intrigued.
Who will truly claim the throne of Bihar? If the results favour the NDA, the JD(U) will argue, “Nitish is the natural face.” But if the BJP wins a larger share of seats, the equation could flip — paving the way for a new face, a new generation, and a new story.
This time, the balance of power within the NDA is unlikely to mirror 2010.
The fog over the chief ministerial face may clear only after November 14, if the results favour the NDA. Meanwhile, the opposition is using this uncertainty as its strongest weapon.
Tejashwi Yadav has put it bluntly: “The people want clarity on leadership issues, not confusion.”
Bihar’s youth — the most decisive voters — are no longer swayed by slogans; they want results. Migration, the quality of education, and employment remain at the heart of every debate.
The government has showcased investment plans and infrastructure projects, yet the impact on the ground remains limited. Youth discontent and rural frustration have become strong undercurrents that could shake any grand alliance. Within the NDA, the seat-sharing formula stands as follows: BJP and JD(U) — 101 seats each; LJP (Ram Vilas) — 29 seats; Jitan Ram Manjhi — 6 seats; Upendra Kushwaha — 6 seats.
The arithmetic may look smooth, but the equation remains fragile. Kushwaha, Paswan, and Manjhi are not just political figures — they are pillars of social identity.
If harmony prevails, victory may come easily to the NDA. But a single crack could rock the boat.
On the other hand, the Mahagathbandhan, once seen as fragmented, now appears more focused. Tejashwi Yadav has positioned himself as the face of change — young, sharp, and outspoken.
The Congress and Left parties are no longer in the shadows; they are active partners. Their campaign message — “A Bihar of Dignity and Jobs” — resonates strongly with the youth, who are expected to be the deciding factor in this election.
Caste still runs deep in Bihar’s politics, yet this time a new social balance seems to be forming. The RJD’s Yadav–Muslim base remains strong, but the NDA appears to be gaining traction among upper castes, Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), and women voters.
However, a growing section of the youth is thinking beyond caste. As one student put it: “We’ll vote for jobs, not caste.”
The NDA has experience and organisation. The Mahagathbandhan has energy and passion. But the people hold the ultimate power — the power to decide who will become the next face of Bihar, and who will symbolise the change they call “Naya Bihar.”
The decision to hear a petition for an independent probe carries deep significance for aviation safety, justice, and accountability, not just in India but the entire aviation sector across the world.
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The Supreme Court on Friday agreed to hear on November 10 a petition filed by 91-year-old Pushkar Raj Sabharwal, father of Captain Sumeet Sabharwal, and the Federation of Indian Pilots (FIP), seeking a court-monitored investigation into the June 12, 2025 crash of Air India Flight AI171 in Ahmedabad that killed 265 people, including both pilots and crew. A Bench of Justices Surya Kant and Joymalya Bagchi issued notices to the Centre, DGCA, and AAIB, clubbing the case with a similar plea pending before the Court. Justice Kant consoled the bereaved father, assuring him that “no one believes it was the pilot’s fault” and calling the tragedy “an unfortunate accident.”
Appearing for the petitioners, senior advocate Gopal Sankaranarayanan argued that the ongoing AAIB probe lacked independence and unfairly blamed the pilots. He cited international reporting that hinted at pilot error, which the Bench dismissed as “nasty” and irrelevant, emphasizing that “foreign media reports” would not influence Indian proceedings. The petition demands a court-appointed committee, led by a retired Supreme Court judge and aviation experts, to conduct an impartial inquiry. It seeks to nullify the current investigation and transfer all evidence to a new panel, citing violations of ICAO Annex 13 standards that require independence in accident probes. Calling the current investigation “biased and technically unsound,” the plea alleges selective media leaks of cockpit recordings, breaching confidentiality rules and damaging the pilot’s reputation. It also claims officials ignored potential technical or software faults in Boeing’s systems, such as the unexplained Ram Air Turbine deployment and electrical failures.
This is the second petition before the Apex Court concerning the crash; an earlier one by the Safety Matters Foundation also sought an independent and transparent inquiry into what is one of India’s deadliest aviation disasters. The decision to hear a petition for an independent probe carries deep significance for aviation safety, justice, and accountability, not just in India but the entire aviation sector across the words
The 2025 Ahmedabad crash, which killed 265 people, exposed serious questions about how air accidents are investigated and whether the system is truly independent. The petition filed by Captain Sumeet Sabharwal’s father and the Federation of Indian Pilots argues that the ongoing inquiry by the DGCA and AAIB lacks neutrality, since these are the same agencies responsible for regulating aviation safety. This challenge highlights a vital concern: regulators cannot fairly investigate themselves.
The case also has a human side. Justice Surya Kant’s reassurance that “no one blames the pilot” acknowledges the emotional toll on the pilot’s family and the need to protect reputations from premature blame. The controversy over leaked cockpit recordings and media speculation raises larger issues of ethics, confidentiality, and respect for the deceased. Beyond individual accountability, the outcome could reshape how air crash investigations are held.
Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah completed one year in office in October, but without the restoration of statehood as was expected to take place during this period.
Abdullah, who was sworn in on October 16 last year after leading the National Conference (NC) to a landslide victory in the 2024 Assembly elections, had campaigned on the promise of working to restore Jammu and Kashmir’s pre-August 2019 status. The party’s manifesto, titled “Dignity, Identity and Development,” pledged to work toward reinstating Articles 370 and 35A, and implementing the Autonomy Resolution passed by the State Assembly in 2000.
However, as the government completes its first year, little progress has been made on the reinstatement of statehood, let alone the ambitious and now out-of-bounds pursuits such as restoration of constitutional safeguards. The only significant steps include two resolutions – one passed in the Cabinet and another in the Legislative Assembly – urging the Centre to restore Jammu and Kashmir’s constitutional status and statehood.
Beyond these symbolic moves, the NC government has little to show on its core political agenda. Opposition parties accuse the Chief Minister of “appeasing New Delhi” and lacking the political will to confront the central government. Even voices within the party admit that intent has been missing.
“Whatever needs to be done on the political front has not happened. There was a need to show intent, but I personally feel that has not been shown till now,” NC’s Srinagar MP Ruhullah Mehdi said recently.
Valley-based parties, including the People’s Conference (PC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), have accused Omar Abdullah of leading a “non-performing” government and doing the bidding of the centre.
Opposition leaders argue that the Chief Minister’s “soft” approach towards the BJP-led central government has weakened his political position. Abdullah, they claim, has failed to assert the authority expected of an elected leader, with key administrative powers still resting with the Lieutenant Governor’s office.
The NC, on its part, says it has taken several steps to improve the lives of ordinary people despite operating under a hybrid governance model.
Among the measures cited by the government are the increase in marriage assistance for poor brides from Rs 50,000 to Rs 75,000, free inter-district bus service for women, the restoration of the academic session to October-November, relaxation of stamp duties for property transfers among blood relatives, and free ration for economically weaker sections.
Omar Abdullah’s first year in power has been marked by multiple crises. The April 22 terror attack in Pahalgam dealt a heavy blow to Kashmir’s tourism sector, followed by cross-border shelling during Operation Sindoor in May, which caused civilian casualties and destruction in border areas.
Just as the administration began a campaign to revive tourism, the Valley was hit by devastating floods in September, damaging paddy fields and infrastructure. The government also came under fire for not resolving the ongoing dispute over the new reservation policy, which has reduced the general category quota in jobs and admissions to 30 per cent.
A Cabinet subcommittee was formed in December 2024 after widespread student protests, but its report, submitted four months ago, is yet to be acted upon.
It is true that Abdullah’s government has so far struggled to meet the expectations it raised during the campaign. The reason for this is the union territory status of J&K, giving the Lieutenant Governor the real power to take all the important decisions about governance of the region.
With four years still left in his term, Abdullah faces mounting pressure to demonstrate tangible progress on both political and governance fronts. For now, the restoration of statehood on which hinges his ability to fulfil his electoral promises, remains an unfulfilled aspiration.
In the complex web of global geopolitics and energy economics, India finds itself at a critical juncture owing to its reliance on Russian crude oil, a consequence of the ongoing Ukraine conflict, and mounting pressure from US President Trump to halt such imports. A report by Tehelka Bureau
Tehelka analyzes how recent statements, particularly from former U.S. President Donald Trump, have intensified the debate, suggesting that India should cease its oil imports from Russia. The Donald Trump administration’s latest move to sanction major Russian oil firms Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC will likely make it almost impossible for India to continue procuring crude from Russia. US President Donald Trump has reiterated that India has agreed to reduce its purchase of Russian crude. Trump said PM Narendra Modi had assured him during a phone call that Delhi “was not going to buy much oil from Russia” as he too “wants to see the war end with Russia-Ukraine”. “I spoke to Prime Minister Modi today, as I mentioned before. And we just have a very good relationship. And he’s not going to buy much oil from Russia,” Trump told reporters during the White House Diwali celebrations on Tuesday. “He wants to see the war end with Russia-Ukraine. And, as you know, they’re not going to be buying too much oil. So they’ve cut it way back and they’re continuing to cut its way back.”
It may be noted that Modi acknowledged Trump’s call and his “warm greetings” on the festival of Diwali in a social media post, but didn’t comment on Russian oil. Trump had made similar remarks last week, but the Indian foreign ministry said at the time said it was not aware of any phone call between the leaders.
The impact on India’s current account deficit (CAD) could also be significant. According to ICRA Ratings, a $10 per barrel rise in oil prices could expand the CAD by 0.3% of GDP, putting pressure on the rupee and potentially requiring monetary adjustments. Despite potential challenges, India has diversified its crude sources. It imports from over 40 countries, including emerging suppliers such as Guyana, Brazil, and Canada. Long-term contracts with Middle Eastern producers provide flexibility, while refiners have explored alternatives in the US, West Africa, and Azerbaijan.
However, a switch from Russian crude is not seamless. Refineries optimized for Russian grades may need adjustments to process different crude types, potentially leading to downtime and higher operational costs. Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL), and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) could face underutilization of refining capacity, impacting profitability.
An abrupt cessation of Russian imports presents a complex challenge: balancing economic stability with geopolitical expectations. While alternative suppliers exist, immediate price and supply pressures are inevitable. Energy security, industrial fuel supply, and refining operations all face risks if imports were abruptly cut.
India became one of the biggest markets for Russian oil as Western nations shunned purchases and imposed sanctions on Moscow after the Ukraine war started in 2022. Delhi increased its imports and bought Russian crude at discounted prices, saying the decision was vital to provide energy security to millions of its people. Delhi has also pointed out that many Western nations, including the US, continue to have trade ties with Russia. In recent months, US officials have accused Delhi of helping to fund Russia’s war against Ukraine by continuing to buy crude oil, a claim Delhi denies.
The Trump administration has put both public and diplomatic pressure on Delhi to reduce its support for Moscow’s energy market, as part of efforts to economically isolate the Kremlin and push for an end to the war in Ukraine. Oil and gas are Russia’s largest exports, and Moscow’s biggest customers include China, India, and Turkey.
As part of this pressure, the US has imposed 50% tariffs – including an additional 25% as a penalty for buying Russian oil – on Indian goods.
However, the US president’s tone has softened in recent days as trade negotiations between the two countries progress. India has been locked in high-stakes trade talks with the US aimed at reaching a long-sought deal in the coming months.
Tehelka delves into the potential ramifications for India if such a move were to materialize, exploring alternative oil sources, economic impacts, and the broader geopolitical implications. Also, what would be its implications for the State-owned companies, including Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum, and Hindustan Petroleum? However, the Indian version to date is a statement by an official spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs that maintains that, “India has been targeted by the United States and the European Union for importing oil from Russia after the commencement of the Ukraine conflict. In fact, India began importing from Russia because traditional supplies were diverted to Europe after the outbreak of the conflict. The United States at that time actively encouraged such imports by India for strengthening global energy market stability.
India’s imports are meant to ensure predictable and affordable energy costs to the Indian consumer. They are a necessity compelled by the global market situation. However, it is revealing that the very nations criticizing India are themselves indulging in trade with Russia. Unlike our case, such trade is not even a vital national compulsion.
The European Union in 2024 had a bilateral trade of Euro 67.5 billion in goods with Russia. In addition, it had trade in services estimated at Euro 17.2 billion in 2023. This is significantly more than India’s total trade with Russia that year or subsequently. European imports of LNG in 2024, in fact, reached a record 16.5mn tonnes, surpassing the last record of 15.21mn tonnes in 2022. Europe-Russia trade includes not just energy, but also fertilizers, mining products, chemicals, iron and steel, and machinery and transport equipment.
Where the United States is concerned, it continues to import from Russia uranium hexafluoride for its nuclear industry, palladium for its EV industry, fertilizers, as well as chemicals. In this background, the targeting of India is unjustified and unreasonable. Like any major economy, India will take all necessary measures to safeguard its national interests and economic security.
Current Landscape on Oil Imports
India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, has historically depended on the Middle East for its crude oil needs. However, since the onset of the Ukraine war in 2022, there has been a significant shift in its import patterns. Russian crude oil, offered at discounted rates due to Western sanctions, became an attractive alternative for Indian refiners. By fiscal year 2024-25, Russia supplied approximately 35% of India’s total crude oil imports, up from a mere 2% in 2022. This surge was primarily driven by the price advantage, with Russian oil priced below $60 per barrel, compared to over $70 for alternatives from Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
Interestingly, before 2022, India’s oil imports from Russia were minimal, with the country primarily relying on Middle Eastern supplies. This pattern shifted following the Russia-Ukraine war and the G7 nations’ move to implement a $60-per-barrel price cap, designed to restrict Russia’s revenue while maintaining global oil supply. While India avoids US-sanctioned oil from Iran and Venezuela, Russian oil remained both permissible and cost-effective, leading to increased purchases.
Economic implications of Russian Oil Curbs
A report by the State Bank of India (SBI) highlighted the potential economic fallout if India were to stop importing Russian crude. The study estimated that such a move could increase India’s annual oil import bill by up to $12 billion, primarily due to higher global oil prices. The rationale behind this is straightforward: Russia accounts for about 10% of the global oil supply. A sudden cessation of its oil exports would tighten global supply, leading to price hikes.
Moreover, the ripple effects would extend to India’s current account deficit (CAD). An increase in oil prices by $10 per barrel could widen the CAD by approximately 0.3% of GDP, as per ICRA Ratings. This would exert pressure on the Indian rupee and could necessitate adjustments in monetary policy.
India’s crude oil import bill could significantly increase if the country stops importing crude oil from Russia, according to a report by State Bank of India (SBI). If India halted oil imports from Russia for the rest of FY25-26, the fuel bill might increase by $9 billion in FY26 and $11.7 billion in FY27 due to the increase in prices, ANI reported, citing the SBI study.
This report comes amid the US imposing an additional 25% tariff on all Indian goods and penalties for India’s purchases from Russia. US President Donald Trump has said there will be no trade negotiations with India until a dispute over tariffs is resolved.
The White House issued an Executive Order imposing an additional 25 percentage points in tariffs on Indian goods, raising the total levy to 50%. The Trump administration cited national security and foreign policy concerns, pointing specifically to India’s ongoing imports of Russian oil.
India’s reliance on Russian oil has grown since 2022. Russia’s share of India’s total oil imports surged from just 1.7 per cent in 2020 to 35.1 per cent in 2025, making Russia its largest oil supplier.
This shift was largely driven by the availability of discounted Russian oil, capped at $60 per barrel, a move to ensure energy security, after Western nations imposed sanctions on Moscow and avoided its supplies following the invasion of Ukraine.
India imported 88 million metric tonnes (MMT) of crude from Russia in FY25, out of its total oil imports of 245 MMT, the news report said.
Before the Ukraine war, Iraq was India’s top crude supplier, followed by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
“If India stopped oil imports from Russia during the rest of 2025-26, then India’s fuel bill might increase by only USD 9 billion,” SBI stated in the report.
This would be a direct consequence of having to buy more expensive oil from other countries. Furthermore, if all countries were to stop buying Russian oil, which accounts for 10 per cent of the world’s crude supply, global oil prices could rise by as much as 10 per cent, provided no other countries increase their production.
India’s strategy to mitigate the impact
Despite the potential increase in import bill, the SBI report highlighted that India’s diversified supply network and established contracts with other oil-producing nations may help cushion the impact.
India has diversified its oil sources to about 40 countries, including new suppliers like Guyana, Brazil, and Canada, adding to the country’s energy security.
Additionally, Indian refiners have annual contracts with its traditional Middle Eastern producers, which allow flexibility to request additional supplies each month.
Since the imposition of sanctions on Russia, refiners have also turned to crude suppliers in the United States, West Africa, and Azerbaijan.
However, SBI cautions that a rise in global crude prices would still exert upward pressure on India’s fuel costs.
Exploring Alternatives
In the event of a Russian oil embargo, India would need to identify alternative sources to meet its crude oil requirements. Traditional suppliers like Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE could potentially increase their output to fill the gap. However, this is contingent on their production capacities and willingness to adjust to new market dynamics.
Additionally, countries like Brazil and Nigeria, which have been offering competitive pricing, could emerge as viable options. However, logistical challenges, such as longer shipping routes and potential quality differences in crude grades, could complicate these alternatives.
The shift in supply sources would also necessitate modifications in India’s refining processes. Refineries optimized for processing Russian crude might require adjustments to handle different grades, leading to potential downtime and increased operational costs.
Impact on Indian Refiners and Energy Security
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL), and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) are the primary state-owned refiners in the country.
These entities have heavily invested in refining infrastructure tailored to Russian crude. A sudden disruption in supply could lead to underutilization of refining capacities, affecting profitability and operational efficiency.
Furthermore, energy security could be compromised. While India has diversified its energy sources, a significant portion of its crude oil still originates from Russia. A sudden cessation could lead to supply shortages, affecting industries and transportation sectors reliant on consistent fuel availability.
Geopolitical, Strategic Dimensions
India’s continued import of Russian oil has been a point of contention with Western nations, particularly the United States. The U.S. has imposed sanctions on Russian oil producers and their associated shipping fleets, aiming to curb Moscow’s revenues. However, these measures have inadvertently affected countries like India, which have maintained trade relations with Russia.
India’s stance has been one of strategic autonomy. While acknowledging the geopolitical concerns, India has emphasized its right to secure energy at the best possible prices for the benefit of its citizens. This approach aligns with its broader foreign policy objectives of non-alignment and prioritizing national interests.
The prospect of India halting its oil imports from Russia presents a multifaceted challenge. While the nation is exploring alternative sources and diversifying its energy portfolio, the immediate economic implications are significant. A balanced approach, weighing geopolitical considerations against economic realities, will be essential for India to navigate this complex terrain.
In the coming months, India’s decisions regarding its oil import strategy will not only influence its energy security but also its standing in the global geopolitical arena. As the situation evolves, continuous assessment and adaptive strategies will be crucial for maintaining economic stability and energy resilience.
India imported 88 million metric tonnes (MMT) of crude from Russia in FY25, out of its total oil imports of 245 MMT, the news report said.
Before the Ukraine war, Iraq was India’s top crude supplier, followed by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
“If India stopped oil imports from Russia during the rest of 2025-26, then India’s fuel bill might increase by only USD 9 billion,” SBI stated in the report.
This would be a direct consequence of having to buy more expensive oil from other countries. Furthermore, if all countries were to stop buying Russian oil, which accounts for 10 per cent of the world’s crude supply, global oil prices could rise by as much as 10 per cent, provided no other countries increase their production.
India’s strategy to mitigate the impact
Despite the potential increase in import bill, the SBI report highlighted that India’s diversified supply network and established contracts with other oil-producing nations may help cushion the impact.
India has diversified its oil sources to about 40 countries, including new suppliers like Guyana, Brazil, and Canada, adding to the country’s energy security.
Additionally, Indian refiners have annual contracts with its traditional Middle Eastern producers, which allow flexibility to request additional supplies each month.
Since the imposition of sanctions on Russia, refiners have also turned to crude suppliers in the United States, West Africa, and Azerbaijan.
However, SBI cautions that a rise in global crude prices would still exert upward pressure on India’s fuel costs.
Exploring Alternatives
In the event of a Russian oil embargo, India would need to identify alternative sources to meet its crude oil requirements. Traditional suppliers like Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE could potentially increase their output to fill the gap. However, this is contingent on their production capacities and willingness to adjust to new market dynamics.
Additionally, countries like Brazil and Nigeria, which have been offering competitive pricing, could emerge as viable options. However, logistical challenges, such as longer shipping routes and potential quality differences in crude grades, could complicate these alternatives.
The shift in supply sources would also necessitate modifications in India’s refining processes. Refineries optimized for processing Russian crude might require adjustments to handle different grades, leading to potential downtime and increased operational costs.
Impact on Indian Refiners and Energy Security
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL), and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) are the primary state-owned refiners in the country.
These entities have heavily invested in refining infrastructure tailored to Russian crude. A sudden disruption in supply could lead to underutilization of refining capacities, affecting profitability and operational efficiency.
Furthermore, energy security could be compromised. While India has diversified its energy sources, a significant portion of its crude oil still originates from Russia. A sudden cessation could lead to supply shortages, affecting industries and transportation sectors reliant on consistent fuel availability.
Geopolitical, Strategic Dimensions
India’s continued import of Russian oil has been a point of contention with Western nations, particularly the United States. The U.S. has imposed sanctions on Russian oil producers and their associated shipping fleets, aiming to curb Moscow’s revenues. However, these measures have inadvertently affected countries like India, which have maintained trade relations with Russia.
India’s stance has been one of strategic autonomy. While acknowledging the geopolitical concerns, India has emphasized its right to secure energy at the best possible prices for the benefit of its citizens. This approach aligns with its broader foreign policy objectives of non-alignment and prioritizing national interests.
The prospect of India halting its oil imports from Russia presents a multifaceted challenge. While the nation is exploring alternative sources and diversifying its energy portfolio, the immediate economic implications are significant. A balanced approach, weighing geopolitical considerations against economic realities, will be essential for India to navigate this complex terrain.
In the coming months, India’s decisions regarding its oil import strategy will not only influence its energy security but also its standing in the global geopolitical arena. As the situation evolves, continuous assessment and adaptive strategies will be crucial for maintaining economic stability and energy resilience.
