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CoverStory

CEBR REPORT

INDIA

ACCELARATING

ndia is expected to become the fourth largest econ- exchange rates. The CEBR is a leading independent
omy by 2026 and the third largest by 2034, accord- commercial economics consultancy based in London.
ing to a report by UK-based Centre for Economics The report has been produced by the CEBR team of
Iand Business Research (CEBR). The same report economists led by CEBR’s Deputy Chairman, Douglas
observes that the USA in 2019 reached 24.8 per cent McWilliams.
of world GDP, its largest share of the world economy However, the ranking would not be set in stone as
since 2007. And the US is now expected to remain the the three economies would continue to battle for the
world’s largest economy throughout the 2020s and is third position over the next 15 years, the CEBR report
to be overtaken by China only in 2033 stated.
The CEBR report states that India would surpass Referring to Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led
Germany to take on the mantle in 2026 and further government’s target of taking the economy to $5 tril-
topple Japan in 2034 to become the third largest econ- lion by 2024, it said, “India is also set to reach a GDP
omy. Referring to Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led of $5 trillion by 2026 — 2 years later than the current
government’s target of taking the economy to $5 tril- government target.”
lion by 2024, the report said, “India is also set to reach
a GDP of $5 trillion by 2026 - 2 years later than the cur- HIGHLIGHTS
rent government target.” India has decisively overtaken both France and the
The report stated that India would achieve its UK to become the world’s fifth largest economy in
dream of reaching a gross domestic product (GDP) of 2019. It is expected to overtake Germany to become
$5 trillion by 2026. It has pegged the achievement a fourth largest in 2026 and Japan to become the third
couple of years after the government’s target. largest in 2034. India is also set to reach a GDP of $5
“India has decisively overtaken both France and trillion by 2026 – 2 years later than the current gov-
the UK to become the world’s fifth-largest economy ernment target.
in 2019. It is expected to overtake Germany to become The USA in 2019 reached 24.8 per cent of world GDP,
fourth largest in 2026 and Japan to become the third its largest share of the world economy since 2007. And
largest in 2034,” said CEBR in the report, titled ‘World the US is now expected to remain the world’s largest
Economic League Table 2020’.The latest edition of economy throughout the 2020s and is to be overtaken
the World Economic League Table, the WELT 2020, by China only in 2033, three years later than we fore-
is produced by international economic forecasters, cast two years ago.
the London-based Centre for Economics and Busi- We do not expect China to go into recession in 2020
ness Research (CEBR) at a time of significant change and, although Chinese growth will slow as a result of
in the world order and increasing global economic demographics and greater concentration on quality
uncertainty. It is CEBR’s 11th annual world economic of life, we expect China to become the world’s largest
outlook report. This edition of the World Economic economy in 2033.
League Table (WELT) shows some interesting moves The latest revised data suggests that despite Brexit,
as the world’s richest powers jockey for position. The the French economy failed to overtake the UK econo-
WELT tracks the size of different economies across my in the 2016-19 period. We now expect that by 2034
the globe and projects changes over the next 15 years, the UK economy will be a quarter larger than the
up to 2034. French economy.
The World Economic League Table (WELT) is an an- Two ‘Western’ economies with particular success
nual calculation by CEBR jointly published by CEBR in attracting skilled migrants, Canada and Australia,
and Global Construction Perspectives. The base data should continue to rise in the rankings. By 2034 Can-
for 2019 is taken from the IMF World Economic Out- ada is predicted to be the 8th largest economy and
look and the GDP forecast draws on CEBR’s Global Australia the 13th largest.
Prospects model to forecast growth, inflation and Because of its success in diversifying into tech, Rus-

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