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China, on the other hand, has had a particularly dif- cessful countries at attracting inward migration, are
ficult 2019 with growth slowing and Beijing property predicted to rise in the rankings, Canada to 8th and
prices falling. At the end of the year, however, growth Australia to 13th by 2034.
seems to have started to recover and the prospects for We have had a chance this year to conduct an in-
2020 are improving. Where China has been particu- depth study of the prospects for the Russian economy.
larly successful is in reorienting policy — its success Our conclusion is that they are having some success
in virtually abolishing extreme poverty over the past in diversifying from energy to tech and as a result,
two decades deserves to be applauded while the focus despite our prediction of weak oil prices in the late
of policy has now shifted onto improved environmen- 2020s and 2030s, we expect Russia only to drop one
tal performance. We still expect China to become the place in the rankings to 12th by 2034. Poland is expect-
world’s largest economy in 2033. ed to join the ranks of the world’s top 20 economies,
Indian data revisions mean that 2019 was the reaching 19th position in 2031.
year when the country’s economy finally overtook In the long run, many Asian economies will rise
the UK and France (as predicted in WELT 2019). But through the ranks of the WELT as these countries
slow growth during the year has increased pressure cash in on their demographic dividends. The two
most prominent examples are the Philippines, which
will enter the top 25 largest economies reaching 22nd
India will surpass place in 2034, and Bangladesh, which will rise to 25th.
The CEBU Deputy Chairman Douglas McWilliams
said: “The World Economic League Table 2020 tracks
Germany in 2026 and relative economic progress. The biggest surprise is
how well the US economy has managed to do, reach-
further topple Japan ing its highest share of world GDP for 12 years. Though
our view is that it has reached its high water mark and
in 2034 to become the moving forward the deficit and its trade disputes will
start to hold it back. Still, this is a remarkable perfor-
third-largest economy, mance for an old world economy. ”
“The battle for the top spots in the WELT league
says CEBR, adding that table remains fiercely contested,” said Kay Daniel
Neufeld, Head of Macroeconomics at Cebr. He added:
“In December, the US and China agreed on a de-es-
the country will reach calation in trade tensions between the two economic
juggernauts. Whether the conflict, which has been
$5trn GDP by 2026 - two weighing heavily on global growth, can be entirely
solved in 2020 remains to be seen. We expect growth
years later than the in China to slow further throughout the year as
the country manages not only the fallout from the
current govt target trade war but also its transition towards a consump-
tion-driven economy offering a higher standard of
living. This has delayed its ascent to the top spot in
the league table until 2033. Meanwhile, Japan,
Germany and India will battle for third position over
for more radical economic reforms. Our prediction the next 15 years.”
that India will overtake Germany and then Japan to “Despite the rapid ascent of countries such as India
become the world’s third largest economy in 2034 and Indonesia, it is striking how little an impact this
assumes success in implementing such reforms. will have on the US and China’s dominant roles in
In Europe, revised data means that even after the the global economy. Indeed, their share of world GDP
sharp fall in sterling after the Brexit referendum, the is forecast to rise to 42 per cent by 2034. The 2020s
United Kingdom just managed to stay ahead of France. are set to be a decade marked by continued tensions
We now predict that by 2034 the UK economy will be between the US and China on multiple fronts rang-
a quarter larger than the French economy. ing from trade to tech, which will cast a long shadow
One of the persistent themes of this report is that over the rest of the global economy.” said Pablo Shah,
countries that are successful in attracting skilled Senior Economist at the CEBR.
migrants tend to grow faster. And reflecting this,
Canada and Australia, which are two of the most suc- LETTERS@TEHELKA.COM
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