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ECONOMY

sia is expected to do far better than any other energy world economy with the weakest GDP growth since
dependent economy in a world of weak oil prices, fall- the recession year of 2009. But the clouds started to
ing only one place from 11th to 12th by 2034. lift towards the end of the year and we predict that
Korea is set to become one of the world’s top ten expansionary fiscal and monetary policy around the
economies in 2027. world will cause growth to accelerate in 2020.
Indonesia is set to be on the verge of entering the In 2019, any lingering ‘feel-good factor’ from the up-
group of the world’s top ten economies by 2034, swing of the global economy in 2017 has largely dis-
reaching 11th place in the table. persed and has been replaced by renewed volatility
Three rapidly growing Asian economies are the fast- and uncertainty. Trade tensions have come to the fore
est risers in the table amongst the larger economies. with the US and China imposing substantial tariffs on
The Philippines rises from 38th place in 2019 to 22nd each other’s export sectors.
place in 2034; Bangladesh from 41st to 26th and Ma- Perhaps the most unexpected element in this report
laysia from 35th to 28th. is the ongoing strength of the US economy, though
Poland enters the world’s top 20 economies in 2031, we expect that 2019 will prove the high water mark
reaching 19th place. as the problems of the trade war and the deficit im-
Weakening oil prices through the 2020s will push pinge. But in 2011 the US economy was 21.2 per cent of
Saudi Arabia out of the world’s 20 largest economies world GDP. In 2019 its share had risen to 24.8 per cent,
by 2028, eventually sinking to 21st in the rankings by its highest share since 2007. And it is now forecast to
2034. remain the world’s largest economy throughout the
The past year, 2019, has been a bad year for the 2020s, only being overtaken by China in 2033.

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