It is said that coming events cast their shadows before. The Bharatiya Janta Party’s falling out with Telugu Desam Party of Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu, which has 16 MPs, is indicative of an imminent thunderstorm. The immediate provocation could be demand for ‘special status’ or tax concessions like Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Jammu & Kashmir and the North-East, but the fact remains that allies of National Democratic Alliance are eying the next general election.
Ironically, though the BJP has wrested three more governments in North-East, the NDA partners apparently find that its aura of invincibility is no more intact. The trigger came when the underdog Congress dented the esteem of BJP in Gujarat. The by-election results in Rajasthan where Congress won from both Alwar and Ajmer Lok Sabha seats came as further embarrassment for the party. In Madhya Pradesh too where BJP is in saddle for the past 15 years, the Congress was able to retain Mungaoli and Kolaras Assembly seats. The Samajwadi Party’s win in Gorakhpur and Phulpur and RJD’s in Bihar could be a cause of worry for the BJP.
All is not well between Shiv Sena which has 18 MPs, and the BJP as the former has made it known that it will go alone in next Lok Sabha and Assembly elections in Maharashtra. The Shiv Sena has repeatedly targeted the union government over price rise and hike in petrol prices. In Bihar too, a senior Janta Dal United leader and former Assembly Speaker Uday Narayan Chaudhary called on Rashtriya Janta Dal chief Lalu Prasad in Birsa Munda Central Jail after he was convicted in two separate fodder scam cases. Another NDA leader Brishen Patel met the jailed RJD president in Ranchi court. A yet another ally of NDA, Rashtriya Lok Samata Party led by Union Minister Upendra Kushwaha held a human chain programme against the existing education systems of both Bihar government and the government at the Centre. While all this was not enough, Telengana Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao has proposed a third front of parties — a front minus BJP and Congress. The BJP-led coalition had come to power after getting a massive mandate in the 2014 general elections and now ahead of next general election, chinks have begun appearing in the coalition indicating unrest among the coalition partners. It is time for the BJP to give more attention to its friendly parties or else there would be Naidus, Thackerays and Badals treading separate paths. The BJP may be a dominant player in national politics — ruling in 22 out of 29 states directly or indirectly, but going to general election alone and turning a solitary reaper may be fraught with high risks!
Together they win: The SP-BSP alliance paid off in Bihar and UP polls
The display of the saffron flag in Tripura, Nagaland and Meghalaya is a historic advance for the BJP. It signifies the Congress party’s decimation and the Bharatiya Janata Party’s constant assent. With the BJP’s standout performance in all three northeastern states, the party is now in control of 22 out of 29 states in the country directly or through allies. The political message is loud and clear more than just about the symbolism of Congress being reduced literally to a zero in both Tripura (from 10 seats in 2013) and Nagaland (from 8 seats in 2013). The BJP now claims to be more than a Hindi belt party and the only pan-India party.
However, the euphoria over the astounding victory in North-East has proved short lived for the Bhartiya Janta Party as it has got a shocker in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. In the prestigious parliamentary seat of Gorakhpur, vacated by Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath who held the seat for record five times and in Phulpur, vacated by his deputy Keshav Maurya, the Samajwadi Party with the support of Bahujan Samaj Party of Mayawati has won comfortably. Maurya himself admitted that “The BSP has successfully been able to transfer its votes for the SP”.
In Bihar, the Rashtriya Janta Dal registered wins from Araria parliamentary seat and Jahanabad assembly seat. West Bengal Chief Minister, Mamta Banerje was quick to tweet “Congratulations to Lalu Prasad Ji for the great victory”, giving enough hints of possible future tie-ups.
With presence in most of the states, the BJP will be eyeing Karnataka, Odisha, Bengal and Kerala and will try to beat anti-incumbency in states like Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.
Traditionally, North-Eastern states have remained inclined towards the party at the Centre because of the heavy dependence of the region on grants and funds. But what makes the BJP’s ascendency in the North-East different this time is the saffron party’s emergence as the party of choice. This party is not only the party of choice in the Hindi belt alone, but of people in Assam, Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and now Tripura.
This performance shatters a seven decade-old trend of choices devolving between the Congress and local parties. In fact, ever since Mamata Banerjee successfully worsted the CPM in West Bengal, the Left has been with its back to the wall. It now faces a serious existential crisis. In the North-East the BJP’s performance has been, to say the least, spectacular as it has wrested the state of Tripura away from the Left by winning 43 out of 59 seats with its ally. Victory in Tripura carries a huge significance as the Left had been ruling Tripura continuously for 25 years.
Chalo Paltai catches fancy
From zero seats in 2013 to forming a government today bears testimony to the efficacy and untiring efforts of the party’s poll machinery under Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Party President Amit Shah. Of course the slogan of ‘Chalo Paltai’, borrowed from a 2011 Bengali film based on the lives and desires of the present-day generation, and the promise of development worked and overthrew the ‘sarkar’ of Manik Sarkar. For the record, Tripura has one of the highest unemployment rates in the country. Yet, the CPM could only offer its empty rhetoric of egalitarian revolution. The Left’s outdated ideology of an egalitarian revolution stood nowhere before the BJP’s strategic move to promise development and change. The 25 years of Left rule in Tripura has now collapsed as BJP has stormed the Communist citadel to secure a two-thirds majority in the 60-member House ending Manik Sarkar’s four-term stint as Chief Minister. The ruling CPM, which had 48.11 per cent votes in 2013 election, managed 42.6 per cent vote share this time, but the Left Front was trounced in the numbers game, dropping from 50 to just 16 seats. The Congress was decimated — it had 10 seats and 36.53 per cent vote share in 2013, but drew a blank this time.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a tweet: “This journey from ‘Shunya’ to ‘Shikhar’ has been made possible due to a solid development agenda and the strength of our organization”. BJP president Amit Shah said his party’s impressive victory was a sign of things to come in the next few elections and had energised party cadres for the 2019 elections. However, CPM general secretary Sitaram Yechury alleged that the BJP used “money and muscle power in Tripura”.
Conceding space
It is clear that BJP’s gains in Tripura and Nagaland came at the cost of the Congress which conceded space to the saffron party. The Congress revival in Gujarat, the by-election wins for Congress in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, the emergence of Rahul Gandhi may have given the impression that Modi magic was waning. No more. The fact is that the North-East results have dissipated some of the momentum Rahul Gandhi gained after Gujarat The North-East results mean that not all is lost for the BJP. In the 2013 assembly polls, it won just 1.5 per cent vote-share and zero seats. To raise the bar to 43 per cent of vote-share on its own steam appears incredible. The BJP won not only the urban areas around Agartala but also tribal areas across south, central and eastern Tripura. The trend continued in Nagaland too where it won 12 seats with 15.3 per cent vote-share (up from 1.8 per cent). The strategic alliance with the National Democratic Progressive Party which registered victory in 16 seats showed the craftsmanship of the party. In Meghalaya no political party has ever won an absolute majority since 1976. Even in this state, the BJP has significantly increased its vote share from 1.3 per cent to 9.6 per cent.
Northeastern states account for 25 Lok Sabha seats and BJP will be hoping to offset possible electoral losses in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh or elsewhere with gains in this region. The party has done well to not ignore small states. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP President Amit Shah addressed more election rallies than any Congress leader, past or present, even chiding Congress President Rahul Gandhi by tweeting that “elections were perhaps being held in Italy”, taking a jibe over Congress chiefs visit to his ailing ‘nani’ in Italy .
Deer caught in headlights
Ironically, the Congress has been like a deer caught in the headlights as the grand old party was left high and dry in Meghalaya despite emerging as the single largest party. Conrad Sangma-led National People’s Party has assumed office with the BJP as a partner. This habit of being always the bridesmaid, never the bride, it seems has become the signature style of the Congress. It was in Manipur where with 28 seats and being the single largest party, it gave way to a politically alert BJP which cobbled up majority. It happened in Goa assembly where Congress was the single largest party with 17 seats to the BJP’s 13, but again the agile BJP was able to form the government with like-minded legislators. The Congress has been like a deer caught in the headlights while the BJP learnt the formula of forming governments after governments. In Meghalaya, with just two seats to boast of, it played the kingmaker.
Results and after
The BJP had given the catchy slogan of “Congress Mukt Bharat” but now it emerges that for any incumbent state government ruled by non-BJP parties, it would be difficult to take on aggression of the party at the Centre. The BJP’s motive of creating an Opposition-free nation is becoming a reality. The coming together of secular and democratic parties with a common minimum programme can perhaps work. Two developments in the aftermath of the saffron sweep in the North-East are noteworthy. One is that the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati who has hitherto been averse to pre-poll alliances has extended support to her bete noire Samajwadi Party in Phulpur and Gorakhpur Lok Sabha by-elections in Uttar Pradesh. Though she has made it clear that this does not amount to a formal alliance for the 2019 Lok Sabha election, but realization seems to have dawned on her that the BSP needs to back the strongest Opposition party to take on the BJP. It could be the beginning of a new era in politics.
Amidst the razing of Lenin statue in the North-East, desecration of Ambedkar’s in Uttar Pradesh and BJP trying damage control, another development of significance was the TDP’s decision to pull out its ministers from the Modi government. This certainly not only plays a spoiler in the BJP’s celebrations, it also casts a shadow over its poll fortunes in Andhra Pradesh, the State that sends 25 members to the Lok Sabha. As a co-incidence, the entire North-Eastern states send as many members to the Lok Sabha. It would be interesting to watch how politics evolves in different states post the North-East onslaught by the BJP.
Meanwhile, in the Hindi heartland, the winning experiment of the SP-BSP alliance for the by-polls could mean a bigger alliance for the next general election. The shocking debacle of the BJP in the UP and Bihar by-elections could serve as encouragement for Opposition parties to form an alliance to defeat the surge of the saffron party.
Reforms are likely to be put on hold till the next general elections that are scheduled in early 2019, predicted former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan, but added that India will move up to a “higher plane of growth” thereafter.
On employment generation, Rajan reportedly said that India’s 7.5 per cent growth will not be able create good jobs for the 12 million people coming into the labour market every year.
“I think to some extent, reforms will be put on the shelf till the next election. But post-election, if we can accelerate this pace of reform, there’s no reason why in two or three years we couldn’t move up to a higher plane of growth,” CNBC quoted him as saying in an interview.
Rajan, who is currently a professor of finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, said India can move up from the 7.5 per cent growth, which is not enough to employ the 12 million people coming to the labour force every year in good jobs.
“We can move up to maybe 10 per cent, provide some kind of source of demand for the work. We can do that but I think we need to work on it,” a PTI report quoted him as saying.
Rajan reportedly said that reforms are happening in India but more slowly than one would wish. “That’s potentially the cost of getting political agreement,” he was quoted as saying.
Warning about the global attitude that is less receptive to exports, Rajan said,” So if India becomes a manufacturing giant overnight, who’s going to buy its stuff? So, India needs to think about its pathway of growth, it will be different from China’s.”
Agitating students, who were demanding jobs in Railways, have called off rail roko protest in Mumbai on March 20, that finally resulted in the resumption of train services.
The protest was called off when railway authorities brokered peace.
Around 400 to 500 students from several states, who have done an apprenticeship with the Indian Railways and demanding permanent jobs in railways, sat on the tracks at about 6.45 am on March 20. The agitation disrupted the rail traffic during peak morning hours. The protest caused difficulties to more than 4.5 million commuters, travelling through suburban services between Matunga and Dadar stations. Following the protest Central Railway was forced to stop suburban as well as express train services, an official said.
Agitation was finally withdrawn around 10.45 a.m. after the intervention of top Central Railway officials and the Railway Ministry with a written assurance to the protestors. Railway Minister Piyush Goyal also issued a statement on the rail roko protest, and said that 20 percent of the posts in railways were already reserved for apprentices.
The job aspirants demanded to scrap the GM quota. “We want full-time absorption of the successful students in the railways, and scrapping of the GM quota. There has been no recruitment for the last four years. About 10 to 15 students have committed suicide,” one of the protester said.
In view of the agitation, the authorities reveal that a fresh round of exams for recruitment of apprentices will be held soon.
“We have already reserved 20 percent posts for ‘Course Completed Act Apprentices’, who were engaged in railway establishments under the Apprenticeship Act. This has been done as per Section 22(1) of the Apprentices Act and the various judgments pronounced by the Supreme Court from time to time. Applicants who completed the apprenticeship course have also been given an age relaxation equal to the period of apprenticeship,” Railway minister said in his statement.
Imprisoned Vivekanandan Krishnaveni Sasikala has been granted 15-day parole to attend the last rites of her husband M Nataranjan (74) who died due to the condition of multiple organ failure on March 20. The Parapanna Agrahara officials have granted the request to the ousted AIADMK leader.
Nataranjan was admitted to Gleneagles Global Health City hospital in Chennai as his condition was critical. Sasikala, who is serving four-year jail term in Bengaluru’s Parappana Agrahara Central Jail in disproportionate assets had requested for 15-day parole to meet her critically ill husband in the hospital.
Natarajan was a Tamil activist and was also running a vernacular magazine called ‘Puthiya Paarvai’. He was formerly a Public Relations Officer with the state government. In 2011, he was one of the family members of Sasikala who were expelled by late Chief Minister and then AIADMK supremo J Jayalalithaa from the party.
Two no-confidence motions brought by TDP (Telugu Desam Party) and YSRCP (Yuvajana Shramika Rythu Congress Party) against the Prime Minister Narendra Modi government again could not be taken up in the Lok Sabha by Speaker Sumitra Mahajan due to chaos in the House on March 20.
Notices for no-confidence motion were given by YSRCP member Y V Subba Reddy and TDP MPs Thota Narasimham and Jayadev Galla. Both the TDP and YSRCP have been demanding a special package for Andhra Pradesh. Also, TDP quit the NDA over the same issue last week.
More voices within ruling coalition NDA have joined anti-government facade. Even Ally Shiv Sena has said that the motions signal an end to the “myth” of BJP’s invincibility.
Home Minister Rajnath Singh even tried to placate the opposition parties, appealing for cooperation and said, “the government is ready for discussion on any issue, including the no-confidence motion.”
On March 16, Lok Sabha speaker Sumita Mahajan took up both the notices amid protests but delayed any decision on the same till March 19, saying that the “House is not in order”.
“Since the House is not in order, I will not be able to bring it… I am sorry,” she said, adjourning the Lok Sabha for the day.
But chaos again rocked the Parliament for the 10th consecutive day on March 20.
Congress has criticised speaker’s decisions, accusing the government of staging protests to save itself from embarrassment.
Dashing hopes of families that were desperately hoping for their safe return from Iraq, the Indian government has confirmed that all the 39 Indians abducted by Islamic State in Mosul in 2014 were dead.
The bodies, exhumed from a mass grave, were sent to Baghdad for DNA tests, External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj told the Rajya Sabha.
“Yesterday we got information that DNA samples of 38 people have matched and DNA of the 39th person has matched 70 per cent,” Swaraj reportedly said.
Minister of state for external affairs VK Singh would bring back the mortal remains from Iraq. The plane would first go to Amritsar, then to Patna and then to Kolkata, the minister was quoted as saying.
The Indian government has said that Iraqi authorities have assured it of all cooperation in locating the captives.
In July last year, Swaraj had said in the Parliament that she would not declare the 39 Indians dead without concrete proof or evidence. “It is a sin to declare a person dead without concrete evidence. I will not do this sin,” Swaraj had said in a statement in the Lok Sabha in 2017.
Harjit Masih, the only Indian to escape the abductors, had claimed that the others in the group were gunned down on June 15, 2014, media reports said.
The group of 40 men, most of them construction workers, were kidnapped from war-ravaged Mosul, the northern Iraqi city which was once a stronghold of Islamic State.
Raj Thackeray, chief of Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), on March 18 during his rally at Shivaji Park in central Mumbai has realigned his position to openly support the NCP’s Modi-mukt Bharat stand, and it appears that he will campaign against Prime Minister Modi and the BJP and will indirectly support the Opposition parties, Congress and NCP.
He asked all the opposition parties to unite against the centre to achieve “Modi-Mukt” Bharat by 2019. On March 17, a day before the MNS rally MNS chief met Sharad Pawar, NCP chief and former agriculture minister, at his residence in south Mumbai. Even last month he conducted an interview of NCP Chief Pawar in Pune. He, however, described his meeting with Pawar as a courtesy call.
After the 2014 General Election fiasco, MNS supremo announced that his party would not contest Lok Sabha (LS) polls in future. His view was that national parties should focus on LS elections and leave state elections to regional parties like the MNS and others. But in his speech at the rally he announced his plans to contest the LS election or to join the anti-Modi facade being directed by NCP Chief Pawar. The NCP leader is all set to host a dinner party probably in the last week of March for all party leaders who are willing to join the anti-Modi facade.
Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal has tendered an apology to Union Minister Nitin Gadkari in a letter on March 19. In a letter, Kejriwal wrote: “I have nothing personal against you. I regret the same. Let us put the incident behind us and bring the court proceedings to a closure.”
Kejriwal and Nitin Gadkari have filed a joint application seeking to withdraw the defamation case in Delhi’s Patiala Court. The application comes after Kejriwal submitted a letter regretting making defamatory remarks against Gadkari.
Kejriwal also apologised to Congress leader Kapil Sibal.
A special CBI court in Ranchi has announced judgment in the fourth fodder scam case on March 19. The court has convicted Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) Chief Lalu Prasad Yadav in yet another scam case in Dumka, and acquitted former Bihar Chief Minister Jagannath Mishra in the same case.
This is the fourth case that relates to the fodder scam, for the embezzlement of Rs 3.13 crore from the Dumka treasury in mid-1990s on the basis of fake vouchers.
These people have been convicted in the Dumka case along with RJD Chief Yadav: Ajit Kumar Verma, guilty under Section 120/B; Arun Kumar Singh Doshi, KK Prasad, Manoranjan Prasad, Nand Kishor Prasad, OP Diwakar, RK Bageria and Raghunandan Prasad.
Seven other people accused in the same case have been acquitted, including former CM Mishra. They are Adheep Chaudhary, Ajit Kumar Verma, MC Suvarno, Benu Jha, Dhruv Bhagat and Lal Mohan Prasadh.
RJD Chief Yadav has been previously convicted in other fodder scam cases and he is currently serving a jail sentence. He was convicted in the first fodder scam case in 2013 and awarded 5-year jail term and in the second case he was convicted on December 23, 2017 and awarded 3.5 years jail term.
After Dumka treasury case, the CBI court likely to state judgement in the Doranda treasury case in coming months.
The sentence to the convicted people, including RJD chief is likely to be pronounced on March 23.
It is said that coming events cast their shadows before. The Bharatiya Janta Party’s falling out with Telugu Desam Party of Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu, which has 16 MPs, is indicative of an imminent thunderstorm. The immediate provocation could be demand for ‘special status’ or tax concessions like Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Jammu & Kashmir and the North-East, but the fact remains that allies of National Democratic Alliance are eying the next general election.
