One thing is clear in this complex web of interests: none of the major actors are genuinely interested in peace. Each is playing a longer game, seeking strategic advantages while Ukraine faces mounting challenges in its fight for survival. A report by Bijoy Patro

The recent confrontation between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump has exposed a stark reality: none of the key players in the Ukraine conflict are truly invested in peace. While public statements and diplomatic efforts are often framed as moves towards resolution, the underlying actions and motivations tell a different story. The ongoing war, now in its third year, is driven more by geopolitical ambitions, economic interests, and political manoeuvring than by any real effort to end hostilities.

Let us first examine the Washington Breakdown. Does it really mean an end to US support for Ukraine?

The Zelensky-Trump meeting at the White House was meant to reaffirm US support for Ukraine. Instead, it highlighted the widening rift between Kyiv and Washington. Trump, long critical of NATO and sceptical of Ukraine’s strategic value to the US, dismissed Ukraine’s NATO aspirations, blaming the war itself on the alliance’s eastward expansion.

Trump’s approach was transactional — he sought a $500 billion rare earth minerals deal with Ukraine in exchange for continued military and economic support. Zelensky, in contrast, aimed for firm security guarantees, viewing them as essential to Ukraine’s survival. When neither side budged, the meeting dissolved into acrimony, resulting in the suspension of US military aid and intelligence sharing.

As a Democratic Party leader said, Zelensky “flew to Washington but walked into the Kremlin.” Zelensky refused to apologise. But, days later, he described the meeting as a “regrettable” gathering.

In the aftermath, Zelensky signalled a willingness to negotiate, hinting that Ukraine might revisit the minerals deal in a bid to restore US backing. However, by then, Trump had already initiated direct talks with Russia, bypassing Ukraine entirely. Indeed, the question the episode seemed to raise was whether Zelensky’s virtual turnaround was really an effort to woo the Americans – particularly after the action of thanking each European Leader individually, and, publically.

A crumbling western alliance

The fallout from the Washington meeting revealed fractures within the Western alliance. Europe, while publicly maintaining solidarity with Ukraine, has struggled to provide the military and economic backing needed to sustain the war effort. The EU’s counteroffer to Ukraine – promising a “mutually beneficial” minerals deal – underscored its desire to assert influence, but it lacked the security assurances Kyiv so desperately needs.

At the United Nations, the US demonstrated a significant shift in its stance. It first voted against a Ukrainian resolution condemning Russia’s 2022 invasion. Then, Washington abstained from a resolution it had originally sponsored, following European amendments led by France and UK. The weak 93-vote passage of this resolution revealed a declining international consensus on Ukraine. A subsequent US-led resolution at the Security Council was passed unanimously, with France and the UK quietly falling in line with Washington’s changing position.

While Ukraine struggles with declining Western support, Russia remains firmly entrenched. Moscow controls about a fifth of Ukrainian territory and, despite recent Ukrainian gains in Kursk, has shown no sign of retreat. The Kremlin is playing a long-term game, capitalising on Western divisions and strategic missteps. In an audacious attempt to keep escalations going, Russian soldiers used a gas pipeline to emerge on former Russian land to recover it from Ukrainian forces.

Trump’s diplomatic gamble – his attempt to peel Russia away from China and Iran – has been met with scepticism. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, a seasoned diplomat, understands Moscow’s leverage. Unlike Trump, who is eager to showcase his deal-making prowess, Russia is in no hurry to reach an agreement.

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s remarks reinforce the challenge Trump faces in reshaping alliances. Xi declared that “China and Russia are good neighbours that cannot be moved away, and true friends who share weal and woe.” This, despite US efforts to drive a wedge between them.

As the third anniversary of the war passed, the absence of US representatives at a solidarity event attended by 40 world leaders was a telling sign of Ukraine’s growing isolation. Zelensky is now caught in a geopolitical tug-of-war between the US, Russia, and Europe – none of whom seem truly committed to his nation’s long-term stability.

There is a growing sentiment among US policymakers that corruption within Ukraine’s elite is a major factor prolonging the war and Trump’s demand for rare earth mineral concessions in exchange for aid puts Ukraine in an unenviable position. It also shows how America is engaging its strengths for transacting business.

Even Elon Musk weighed in, tweeting, “Place sanctions on the top 10 Ukrainian oligarchs, especially the ones with mansions in Monaco, and this will stop immediately. That is the key to the puzzle.”

Meanwhile, US intelligence-sharing with Ukraine has been suspended, a move described by US Special Envoy Keith Kellogg as akin to “hitting a mule with a 2×4 across the nose” to force compliance. This loss of intelligence support severely hampers Ukraine’s ability to conduct military operations effectively.

Europe’s response to the conflict has been largely rhetorical. As US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and Vice President JD Vance pointed out, European nations remain militarily weak and unable to significantly contribute to Ukraine’s defence. Despite promising aid, European countries have struggled to meet their own defence commitments, let alone provide meaningful support to Kyiv.

French President Emmanuel Macron has proposed deploying European peacekeeping troops in Ukraine, with Spain agreeing to participate in such a hypothetical peacekeeping mission in Ukraine – a plan reportedly accepted by Putin. However, without American backing, such an initiative is unlikely to alter the course of the war.

The conflict could have ended much earlier. Lavrov recently revealed that in April 2022, Ukraine was close to signing a peace deal in Istanbul that proposed that Ukraine would end its plans to eventually join NATO and have limits placed on its military. But the negotiations were scuttled by then British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s intervention. Johnson, acting on behalf of NATO interests, feared that a peace deal would be perceived as a victory for Russia, thereby reinforcing Putin’s position.

Instead of ending in 2022, the war continued, escalating into a prolonged conflict fuelled by western arms and Ukrainian resistance. The decision to prolong the war has come at a devastating cost: hundreds of thousands of lives lost, entire cities reduced to rubble, and millions displaced.

Will Zelensky acquiesce to Trump plan?

Zelensky’s refusal to accept a peace deal under Putin’s terms keeps the war going. But his options are narrowing with US support dwindling and insufficient European aid.

Trump has made it clear that he intends to end the war on his terms. His direct negotiations with Russia suggest that Ukraine will not be at the centre of the final settlement. While Zelensky continues to push for the return of all occupied territory and war reparations, Russia’s demands remain firm: Ukraine must remain neutral, demilitarised, and recognise Russia’s annexation of Crimea and other occupied territories.

The US is now weighing how much it can pressure Russia without pushing Moscow further into Beijing’s orbit. For Washington, a deal that neutralises Ukraine while keeping Russia diplomatically flexible would be ideal. For Kyiv, such an agreement would be a bitter pill to swallow.

In this complex web of interests, one thing is clear: none of the major actors – Russia, Ukraine, the US, or Europe – are genuinely interested in peace. Each is playing a longer game, seeking strategic advantages while the war grinds on.

For Zelensky, the inevitability of bending to Trump’s demands is becoming clearer. It may not happen immediately, but the pressure is mounting. Ukraine, caught in the crossfire of global power struggles, is running out of options.

At the time of writing this report on Monday, Zelenskyy headed to Riyadh to meet with Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman. The trip comes a day before crunch talks between Ukrainian and US delegations in the Saudi city of Jeddah.

But the question of whether all the parties are invested in peace remains open.