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ing less than 10 seats of its own.
In Maharashtra, the BJP-Shiv
Sena combine is predicted to
underperform as compared
to 2014.
In West Bengal, the TMC is
likely to call the shots with the
BJP struggling to save its grace,
albeit it may improve its per-
centage share of votes. In Odi-
sha, the BJD is likely to hold the
fort with the BJP making a gain
of couple of seats. In Andhra
Pradesh and Telangana, the
parties already in power are
‘Aay Pe Charcha’ as against the Modi- The BJP’s prospects in the ensuing Lok likely to retain their supremacy giving no
Shah bouquet of pre-election jumlas. Sabha polls are critically linked to re- space for the BJP.
In order to prop up people’s sagging peating its sweep in the Hindi Heartland. An identical picture is likely to
interest in the nationalistic narrative, In the aftermath of having lost Chhat- emerge in Tamil Nadu, and Kerala. The
Modi in a tweet on March 27 announced tisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, BJP may gain a couple of seats in Tamil
that he would be addressing the nation the BJP will find it cumbersome to repeat Nadu on account of its alliance with
with an important message which was its 2014 performance of winning 62 out AIADMK and in Kerala it may secure one
telecast and aired after one hour of the of 65 seats. In Madhya Pradesh where seat, as per average of different pre-poll
tweet and the intervening one hour kept the BJP won 27 out of 29 seats in 2014, is surveys. In Assam and other North-East-
the people guessing the nature of an- likely to incur heavy losses as predicted ern states where the BJP had performed
nouncement because Modi is known for by Poll Eyes. excellently in 2014 is very unlikely to rep-
springing surprises like demonetization. In Jharkhand, where the NDA won 12 licate the same performance, especially
Modi’s announcement of India’s out of 14 seats in 2014, the NDA is ahead in the wake of public angst against BJP’s
prowess in space technology via ASAT, in 5 seats whereas the UPA is ahead in move to impose Citizenship bill. Thus,
which would have been left to the DRDO, nine seats, as per Poll Eyes survey. In the overall scenario presents a dismal
has been dubbed as a move by the BJP Chhattisgarh, where the Congress regis- prospect for the BJP in securing even a
to get political mileage from this event. tered a landslide victory in the assembly bare majority of its own in the ensuing
Some critics have pointed out that such polls in December last year, the BJP is Lok Sabha polls.
an attempt by the BJP makes it seem as likely to suffer a big jolt. In Gujarat where
if the BJP is itself grasping at straw in the the BJP won all 26 seats in 2014, is likely Way ahead
hope of finding something that could to win 16 seats as per Poll Eyes survey. Undoubtedly, the final outcome will be
connect to the people. Another critic has UP, Bihar, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu declared on May 23; nevertheless, the
opined that it can be evidenced from and West Bengal are significant states for emerging trends are unfavourable for
the tone and tenor of Modi presenting any party to wrest power at the Centre. the BJP to retain its hold on power at
the accomplishment that he is worried In 2014, the BJP had swept polls in UP the Centre of its own. In case, the BJP is
about the feedback he is receiving from and garnered good number of seats in able to secure around 200 seats, then
the mood of the electorate. Bihar and in Maharashtra it contested other constituents of the NDA will be in
in alliance with Shiv Sena and secured a strong position to dictate their terms to
Dim prospects good number of seats. However, scenario form a coalition government sans Nar-
Overall prospects for the BJP repeat- in UP and Bihar has undergone a sea endra Modi. Admittedly, the BJP is likely
ing its performance of 2014 seem dim. change presently. to emerge as the single largest party and
Salience of perennial issues of jobs for Alliance between SP, BSP and RLD has it will have to elicit the support of other
the youth, agrarian distress and party’s unnerved the BJP and Congress is also regional parties to be enthroned. In case,
failure in delivering on its promises over fielding its candidates and the cumula- other constituents disapprove of Modi’s
the ephemeral nationalistic fervidness tive impact can damage the prospects of leadership, the possibility of a split in the
and growing surge of the Congress and the BJP. Most of the pre-poll surveys have BJP is not ruled out. Therefore, such an
emerging alliances of regional satraps predicted advantage SP-BSP alliance and eventuality is inclined to approve: May
are likely to dent BJP’s electoral grip. rule out replication of 2014 for the BJP. 23 may brings an end to the BJP rule.
This is also attested to by the recently In Bihar, as well, the NDA is projected to
conducted pre-poll surveys. yield place to UPA with the BJP corner- letters@tehelka.com

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