Page 31 - 30APR2019E

general elections

ance, hinge on the ruling All India Anna In the wake of BJP facing a direct inroads into Kerala and for the 2019
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIAD- contest with Congress-JD (S) alliance, Lok Sabha election, the BJP has tied up
MK), Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) and some experts suggest that the grass- with the local Bharat Dharam Jana Sena
the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhag- roots arithmetic could be shaky for the and Kerala Congress (Thomas), with the
am (DMDK). In 2014, the BJP could win BJP. The Congress-JD (S) alliance may hope to wrest the Thiruvananthapuram
only one seat and that also by virtue of help it galvanize caste base to improve seat.
its alliance with smaller regional par- parliamentary poll vote share and the In 2014, the BJP ceded the Thiru-
ties. Currently, it is contesting for just combine vote share of the alliance vananthapuram parliamentary seat
five seats; nonetheless, in the wake of could well be daunting for the BJP. If to Congress by a narrow margin of 15,
anti- incumbency against the AIADMK the alliance arithmetic that recently 000 votes and this time the BJP is striv-
and the latter being ridden with acute worked at the grassroots in enabling ing hard to win it. In the wake of firmly
factionalism, some experts opine that it Congress to wrest Bellari seat from polarized nature of state politics, until
might be very cumbersome for the BJP the BJP, is any indication then it can be recently it was given to understand
to retain even a single seat that it won in presumed that if this arithmetic goes that there would be some tactical un-
derstanding between the Con-
gress and the Left Parties to defeat
the BJP at the national level which
could be worked at local level to
keep the BJP at bay;
Nevertheless, Congress deci-
sion to field its president Rahul
Gandhi from Wayanad has been
criticized by the Left leadership.
Despite this development, cou-
pled with the fact of the recent po-
larization of the Sabarimala issue,
some experts rule out the possibil-
ity of the BJP of gaining any foot-
hold in Kerala and the Congress is
said to be the net gainer followed
by the Left.

Way forward
The BJP’s strategy of replicating its
2014 performance when it won 21
seats out of 130 in 2019 is seeming-
ly a herculean task. Of the 21 seats
it won in 2014, 17 were from Kar-
nataka, 3 from undivided Andhra
Pradesh and one from Tamil Nadu.
2014. The DMK-Congress alliance may • Poll polemics Andhra CM Chandrababu Naidu Apart from the BJP’s limited appeal,
have a field day on May 23. demands re-poll in 150 booths in the state ground-level arithmetic in Karna-
Kannada region taka and split with the TDP in Andhra
Kannada region, represented by Kar- Pradesh may limit BJP to less than the
nataka and comprising 28 seats, pre- well, it could make it difficult for the double-digit number. The Congress is
sents an interesting example of rivalry BJP to touch double digit number. making efforts to deepen its roots in
between the BJP and Congress. The BJP Kerala and Tamil Nadu. The BJP’s hopes
has the distinction of having won 18, Malayalam region of roping in Jagan Reddy and K. Chan-
19 and 17 of the 28 seats in 2004, 2009 Malayalam region is represented by drasekhar Rao in NDA also seem to be a
and 2014 respectively. However, in the Kerala and it accounts for 20 Lok Sab- far-fetched idea in view of anti-BJP pro-
present scenario, the BJP may find it ha seats. This region has traditionally nouncements of these regional lead-
difficult to replicate its previous perfor- witnessed bi-polar political contest be- ers. However, politic like cricket is an
mance in view of the ruling Congress- tween the CPI (M)-led Left Front and unpredictable game where anything
JD (S) alliance which is to witness direct the Congress-led United Democratic can happen even at the last moment.
contest between the alliance and the Front. However, in recent years, the BJP
BJP in stead of a triangular contest. has also been making efforts to make letters@tehelka.com

Tehelka / 30 april 2019 31 www.Tehelka.com