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revealed that this time Congress is
confident of winning more than 15 Lok
Sabha seats.

Raj Thackrey factor
Raj Thackrey, Maharashtra Navnirman
Sena (MNS) chief, who started address-
ing public meetings from the closing
part of the first week of April this year
has emerged as a potent factor in this
ongoing process of Lok Sabha election
in Maharashtra. Most of the videos of
Raj Thackrey have gone viral across
Maharashtra, spurring thousands of
memes, social media posts and, most
the influence wielded by the NCP have not gone well with the general importantly, ensuring a centre-spot in
satraps, especially the Pawar clan, in masses and even party members of speeches and press conferences of the
the ‘sugar belt’; nevertheless, the con- both sides are often seen expressing ruling BJP.
test remains unpredictable owing their resentment against the sitting Having chosen to take on Modi-Shah
to the personality-centric politics MPs of the alliance party. This entails duo of his own, and having addressed
pervading the region. In the sugar the likelihood of lesser number of seats more than 12 rallies across Maharash-
belt of Maharashtra, party loyalties for the alliance. tra amid growing crowds, has enabled
seldom figure in the calculations of Raj Thackrey to enhance the electoral
local leaders who are only concerned Stakes of Congress and NCP prospects of Congress-NCP combine in
about their sugar cooperatives and In terms of the seat-sharing pact the recently-held Lok Sabha elections
business establishments. The BJP is between Congress and NCP, the former and carving out for himself a niche of
trying to increase its clout in this is contesting 26 seats and the NCP is his own as a force to reckon with in
region by pouching disenchanted gunning for the remaining 22 seats, the forthcoming state assembly polls.
NCP leaders. with both parties agreeing to vacate One expert has opined that by upping
Even after having won 41 of the 48 two seats each to accommodate their the ante, the MNS chief has made the
Lok Sabha seats in 2014, it was not an allies. The Congress and NCP satraps BJP uncomfortable and the Shiv Sena
easy task for the BJP and Sena to retain enjoy predominance over local bodies, nervous.
their old alliance. Media reports indi- the sugar and milk cooperatives, and
cate that in the post-2014 period, the the educational and financial insti- Way ahead
Sena had on multiple occasions hinted tutions in the sugar belt of western In the context of Maharashtra, where
that it would head to the 2019 polls Maharashtra. unemployment, agrarian distress
alone, using its mouthpiece Saamna to Some experts have opined that and Dalit unrest are among the most
hit out at the BJP and Prime Minister the BJP-Shiv Sena combine has been important factors shaping these Lok
Narendra Modi. attempting since 2014 to make inroads Sabha polls, it is interesting to see
Having continued its tirade against in the region, not by creating its own whether it will stand in good stead
the BJP for over three years, suddenly base, but by importing Congress-NCP for Congress-NCP alliance and let the
on February 18 this year, the two spar- leaders into their fold.Nevertheless, this BJP-Shiv Sena combine glide downside
ring allies decided to patch up and re- time the Congress-NCP leaders, along of the hill. Some experts opine that
tain their tie-up in the 2019 Lok Sabha with Shetkari Sanghatana, are making the unity of the Congress and the NCP,
election and the ensuing state assembly all efforts to retain their base, which and the extent to which their leaders
elections due later this year. In the pre- has been the lifeline of their politics by can tide over past differences, will be
poll alliance sealed between the BJP banking on farmers’ unrest, unem- a deciding factor in the final outcome
and Shiv Sena, the former is contesting ployment and disenchantment of the on May 23. Besides, it is also argued that
on 23 seats and the latter contesting Dalits with the BJP-Shiv Sena combine anti-incumbency against NDA candi-
on 23 Lok Sabha seats; with both sides regime. dates, Raj Thackrey factor and absence
agreeing to equally split the assembly This author’s recent tour of these of Modi wave may work in favour of
seats between themselves. and other areas confirms reports ap- Congress-NCP alliance this time. Let’s
According to many experts, this pearing in the media that rural voters wait and watch till May 23.
high-voltage political theatrics of support Congress-NCP alliance. Some
opportunism on the part of Shiv Sena sources close to the Congress have letters@tehelka.com

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