Will Yogi regain lost ground in forthcoming UP Assembly bypolls ?

With the bypolls for 9 Assembly constituencies in Uttar Pradesh set to take place on 13 November, the announcement of candidates by Bharatiya Janata Party is being keenly awaited amongst the political fraternity, both within and outside the saffron unit.         

The selection of candidates for the forthcoming crucial polls is expected to reveal whether UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has regained lost ground in the state, or the political strategy is still being driven by the central leadership of the party. “The candidates for these bypolls are expected to be announced within the next few days,” sources stated.

The list of candidates is expected to unveil whether the party’s top leadership has taken into consideration the suggestions made by the UP Chief Minister at a crucial meeting held earlier this week. Top central and state leaders of the BJP met at the residence of national president JP Nadda in an effort to finalize an electoral strategy for the forthcoming polls in the state. Senior leaders including Nadda, Union Home Minister Amit Shah and Yogi Adityanath, along with his two deputies Keshav Prasad Maurya and Brajesh Pathak, were present at the meeting which also discussed candidates to be fielded by the party.    

Ever since the loss of face in Lok Sabha elections, there have been reports of a rift between the Central leadership and Yogi. Though the party has denied any such friction exists between the leaders, it is understood that the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh had to intervene to help resolve the issues between them. In fact, the 2024 “fiasco” in the state was blamed on bad ticket distribution, not keeping Yogi on board with political strategy and lack of coordination between the RSS and BJP.

However, with by polls to 9 legislative assemblies set to take place in UP, an upbeat BJP hopes to continue on the morale boosting path paved after its Haryana victory.  Sources stated that BJP is taking the bypolls in UP very seriously and is attempting to win a majority of these seats.

The party leadership feels that there is a chance for the BJP to regain lost ground after a below par performance during the Lok Sabha polls held just months ago. “A good show in the bypolls would also boost the morale of the cadre which has been lying low ever since the party’s worst ever performance in the state in the past three Lok Sabha polls,” sources added.  

While the BJP had secured 71 and 63 seats in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections respectively from UP, its seat share in the crucial state had come down to 33 seats in 2024. BJP had secured 255 of the 403 Assembly seats in the state in the 2022 Assembly polls.

With 80 Lok Sabha constituencies, UP is considered to be crucial in the BJP’s political scheme of things, hence the need for the leadership to try and win the maximum possible of these constituencies. The importance that the party gives to the state can also be gauged from the fact that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been choosing Varanasi constituency for seeking election to Lok Sabha.  

A good show in the bypolls is also expected to set the tone for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh where its arch rival, the Samajwadi Party, has been attempting to project its good performance in last Lok Sabha polls as a mandate on the Yogi Adityanath government.