What was once rare is now becoming frequent; the past two decades are clear indication of shifting of shifting monsoon patterns in a warming world that should worry planners
Over the past few years, Rajasthan has shown a consistent increase in rainfall but this July the desert state (as it is also called) recorded the highest in the past 69 years. Known as one of India’s driest regions, 2025 again brought unprecedented rains there due to a combination of climate-driven shifts—intense and early Southwest monsoon and multiple weather systems.
What was once rare is now becoming frequent. At least the past two decades are clear indications of shifting monsoon patterns in a warming world which should worry planners. But does it bother them as much, because the story of poor planning and infrastructure to circumvent it gets repeated almost every other year.
Monsoon 2025
There are videos circulating online showing people wading through water up to shoulders, some also swimming.
Heavy rainfalls battered several parts of Rajasthan on Friday, with the Meteorological Centre in Jaipur recording 285 mm rainfall for July, quite close to the previous record of 308 mm in July 1956. Taranagar in Churu district recorded the highest rainfall at 185.0 mm in the last 24 hours, according to IMD on Friday
Several rivers, including Luni, Parvati, and Chambal, are overflowing, wreaking havoc in the surrounding areas. In Dholpur district, a mini truck was swept away due to flooding from Parvati after which the authorities opened four gates of the Parvati dam to release excess water. Due to heavy rains on Thursday, the Chambal in Dholpur was flowing about 12 metres above the danger mark. Several areas in the district were submerged, and the army was called in for rescue operations.
This is the rainiest July the desert state has seen in past 69 years, it was 308 mm in 1956, at least rain-wise the desert state is outperforming all other states
Reasons
Multiple active weather systems contributed, all indicating shifting monsoon patterns from climate change in Rajasthan that has been showing a consistent increase in rainfall over the years.
By mid-June, heavy rain arrived early when both branches of the monsoon (from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal) became active simultaneously.
By late July, a depression formed over Jharkhand and eastern India and moved toward Rajasthan, triggering intense rainfall in districts like Dausa (158 mm within 24 hrs).
Over the past decade, western Rajasthan and neighbouring Gujarat have received 40–50% more monsoon rains compared to earlier decades, all of which can be linked to rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and altered monsoon dynamics.
Climate scientists attribute the increasing number of heavy-rain days to warming SSTs and increased moisture transport. Even arid western districts like Thar are now experiencing above‑normal rain in 12 of the last 20 years.
