The AAP’s loss in Delhi has cast its shadow on politics in Punjab, the only state where the party is in power now. With Punjab set to go to poll in two years, AAP needs to pull up its socks and resolve burning issues facing the state besides delivering on its pre-poll promises, reports Raju William
As this became the hottest talking point, the post-results political discussions tried to find answers as to how Kejriwal is going to re-position himself to retain his all-powerful hold on the party. However, the analyses and speculations are rife in Punjab as to how the party and its government in the border state are going to absorb Delhi’s electoral shocker marked by their supreme leader’s defeat.
The first to set the cat among the pigeons was the Congress party’s Leader of Opposition (LoP) in Punjab Vidhan Sabha, Partap Singh Bajwa when he claimed that more than 30 AAP legislators were in his contact. The BJP’s Delhi-based Sikh leader Manjinder Singh Sirsa too made statements that sent the jitters in the demoralized and defensive AAP camp.
After the debacle of AAP in Delhi, the party’s entire focus has shifted to Punjab. Its supremo, Arvind Kejriwal, summoned the party’s Punjab legislators and ministers just three days after the announcement of the election results. One of the major reasons seems to make them reassure their loyalty to him and the party because the possibility of defection cannot be ruled out, said Bajwa.
There is a general impression that the poll results in Delhi have not come as a surprise. The senior AAP leadership remained oblivious to the public displeasure over blatant corruption and arrogance of leaders. Isn’t it strange that independent-minded political observers, analysts could gauge this anti-AAP undercurrent?
The same undercurrent is there in Punjab, too. As the Bhagwant Mann government attempts to brazen its way out of all the difficulties that it is heaping upon the people, there is a seething disaffection and anger building up. One wonders CM Mann and his inner coterie cannot see this happening on the ground, commented Patiala-based strategic affairs expert Col. (retd.) Jaibans Singh.
About the impact on AAP, Punjab, the most telling observation probably came from Amritsar-based well-known political analyst Prof. Jagrup Singh Sekhon who termed the AAP’s defeat in Delhi as the end of an “imagined” political alternative at least in Punjab where a space had always been available for it. The rise of the AAP and becoming a part of the imagination of Delhi and Punjab electorates reached its peak in 2022 assembly elections in Punjab.
In Bajwa’s view, the AAP was on a sticky wicket even before the Delhi elections. “The common discourse in Punjab is that the Congress Party would most likely win the 2027 Assembly elections.” There are several reasons he cites to support this argument.
“Since taking over, the AAP government in Punjab has failed terribly to deliver its promises like giving Rs 1000 per month to women, corruption-free governance, ending the drug menace, improving law and order, employment generation, harassment of farmers during harvesting and procurement season, availability of sand at cheaper rates, and streamlining the economy,” he claimed.
Assessing the likely long lasting political impact, Col. Jaibans Singh thinks that things will take a sure turn for the worst when CM Mann, out of a sense of loyalty, attempts to resurrect the fallen leadership of his party. The attendant loss to Punjab in material and political terms will far surpass what has been witnessed till date. A situation of this nature is not acceptable to the people of Punjab. This does not augur well for the party’s prospects in 2027 Assembly polls.
The electoral reversal in Delhi is also going to cost the party dear given farmers’ anger caused by harassment faced during the paddy harvesting and procurement season. Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann allegedly remained inefficient in delivering his promises to farmers like MSP on Moong dal and compensation to flood-affected farmers. Moreover, the AAP has failed to deliver justice on the issues of the sacrilege of Sri Guru Granth Sahib and the firing incident at Behbal Kalan.
Moreover, the Sikh Panth and farmers used to be the vote bank of SAD, which does not seem the case now. And this section of voters is unlikely to shift to the BJP. The BSP has already lost its ground among the Dalit community of Doaba whereas the Congress party has the credit of making the first Dalit CM of Punjab.
The bottom line, according to Bajwa, is that the AAP has been shaken by its defeat in Delhi. The party has anticipated its disastrous political future in the border state. Its top leadership has started taking measures to save its government in Punjab and perhaps preparing for the next Assembly election. The Congress is the only party left in Punjab that could benefit from the present situation. “Punjab Congress is working hard and inching towards winning the 2027 Assembly election,” predicted Bajwa.
In absence of any serious attempt to consolidate the party structure; putting the issue of political ideology on the back burner and emergence of an individual as the party supremo contributed to the electoral debacle in Delhi. The political nautanki of blaming others for their own faults without any concrete proof became the hallmark of this nascent party.
“If the party failed to learn any lessons and made a meaningful course correction, the emerging political scenarios post-Delhi polls will sure lead to its decline in Punjab. The party without ideology and structure cannot sustain politically for a longer period and it seems that its decline will be faster than its rise. It may face the same fate as that of Mayawati’s BSP. It’s likely that the BJP will emerge as a contender in the next Punjab elections,” summed up Prof. Sekhon.
AAP’s unexpected defeat in Delhi is likely to have a significant impact on its political standing in Punjab. The fallout from the Delhi debacle will have major repercussions in Punjab, creating openings for the rival parties. “In their own ways, Congress, BJP and SAD see this situation as a god-send opportunity to capitalize on the AAP’s crisis and go all out to reclaim their lost vote banks to AAP in 2022 Assembly elections,” assessed KP Singh, a well-known TV anchor based at Chandigarh.
With two years to go until the Punjab Assembly elections, the party must strike a balance between caution and assertiveness – delivering on its pre-poll promises, prioritizing development, and effectively countering opposition attacks on law and order, he added.
