Has the AAP Bubble Burst, Spelling Trouble for the INDIA Bloc?

The famous poets Geoffrey Chaucer and T.S. Eliot both described April as the “cruelest month,” but for the Aam Aadmi Party, February may well take that title. Having risen like a meteor, the party now faces a tough reality as it lost its citadel in Delhi and, along with it, its place in the INDIA bloc. Meanwhile, the Bharatiya Janata Party seems unstoppable. After an unexpected win in Haryana, a dominant performance in Maharashtra, and now an emphatic victory in Delhi, the BJP’s momentum is undeniable. It appears that there is no stopping the saffron juggernaut now. This follows what was perceived as a lackluster performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The party has learned from its past mistakes and it was a step ahead of AAP in offering a combination of freebies and pro-poor welfare schemes.

Though Tehelka’s Cover Story in this issue “Awards for Sale” by the Special Investigation Team exposes how behind the glitz and glamour, a thriving underground market trades awards for a price, bypassing merit for profit, the Delhi election results merit attention. Even the Supreme Court has denounced the practice of announcing freebies ahead of elections, questioning if it fosters a “class of parasites,” the political impact is clear—freebies can, indeed, sway electoral outcomes. The BJP’s strategy extended to the middle class, with the 2025 Union Budget offering significant tax relief. Individuals earning up to Rs 12 lakh will pay no income tax, and additionally, the TDS threshold for rental income has been raised to Rs 6 lakh benefiting those dependent on rental income. These measures, coupled with the announcement of the Eighth Pay Commission to revise central government salaries and pension allowances, further bolstered the BJP’s appeal to key voter segments.

However, it was the BJP’s strategic assault on AAP, a party born from Anna Hazare’s anti-corruption movement, that has had the most devastating effect. The focus on AAP’s alleged corruption scandals, particularly the Excise Policy scam and the extravagant renovation of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s official residence “Sheesh Mahal”, tainted the party’s image. Once seen as the voice of the common man, AAP was being perceived as just another political player in a system it once sought to upend. Although Delhi is a small state, it is the centre of political power, and AAP’s ouster here significantly boosts the Opposition’s prospects, especially in Punjab, the only state where it still holds power.

There are growing discussions about AAP potentially facing an existential crisis, with some even suggesting the party could disintegrate. While it’s premature to make such conclusions, the fact that Congress leaders are openly admitting AAP’s encroachment on their voter base suggests mounting pressure. This blow could also cause further problems for the INDIA bloc, particularly as Bihar heads to the polls later this year and West Bengal prepares for elections in 2026.