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column Foreign aFFairs

Iranian unrest: • Shaking the world Any step by the US to

destabilise Iran will have far-reaching impact
Implications for India

for the supply of Iranian gas too. After
all, the energy-hungry Indian indus-
The ongoing political upheavals in Iran and the US arm twisting of try will be only too happy to have an
ASIAN DRAMA the Shia country put India in a tight spot as it is in our interest to adequate supply of gas at reasonable
rates at its doorsteps. The payment
Syed maintain good relations with both nations problem earlier faced by Iran, which
resulted in Teheran suffering a heavy
NooruzzamaN loss of business, is unlikely to be there
ran is on the boil with a large imposed on it owing to its controversial again as the US under President
majority of its people having ex- nuclear energy programme, follow- Trump is not what it was during the
The columnist — former pressed their dissatisfaction with ing the signing of the 2015 nuclear deal days of President Obama.
Deputy Editor of The the policies of the present ruling with six major powers — the US, the In any case, Iran will have to first
Tribune, Chandigarh — dispensation. Iranians mostly live UK, France, Germany, Russia and China. keep its own house in order by taking
specialises in foreign I in urban areas (the country’s rural The situation, however, may be back care of people’s grievances. Finding
affairs. With a career segment accounts for only 27 per cent to square one with the Donald Trump an excuse in the argument that the
spanning 41 years, he of its total population, according to the administration all set to pull out of the Iranian crisis has been caused by
keeps close watch on 2015 official statistics) which witnessed historic agreement, alleging that the enemies of Teheran with a view to
issues related to South large-scale demonstrations in late De- Iranian government has been violat- settle their old scores will not do. The
Asian countries. The cember, 2017 and the first week of Janu- ing the terms of the nuclear deal aimed Iranian rulers divided in two camps
views expressed are ary, 2018 by people frustrated because of at preventing Teheran from acquiring — one led by the supreme leader
personal an increasing army of the unemployed nuclear weapons. of New Delhi suffering strategic and Iran and Afghanistan for a transit and Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Khamenei and
(over 13 per cent), the rising cost of living The US is little bothered about the economic losses in Iran, Afghanistan transport corridor using Chabahar the other by elected President Hassan
(with the inflation rate recorded at 9.7 EU’s assertion that there have been “no and Central Asia. India cannot afford as one of the regional trading hubs. Rouhani — will have to resolve their
per cent), a ban on social media and very violations” and that there is no scope for to make any move to please the US at India’s insistence on going ahead with differences over the issue of overall
little political freedom. renegotiations on the issue. The Trump the cost of its relations with Teheran, its pledge made to Iran may anger the reforms so that Iran is able to function
The Iranian economy is still depend- administration is guided by its strong which has provided New Delhi a very Americans if the US-Iran relations are normally and honour its international
ent on its oil and gas reserves, and dislike for anything that had too much dependable route through Iran’s back to where they were before the commitments. The Iranian clergy,
foreign direct investment is too little involvement of the previous Demo- Chabahar port to take its assistance nuclear deal with Teheran was signed which has enormous constitutional
to help generate enough employment cratic President Barack Obama. supplies to Afghanistan as well as in 2015. How India handles the new powers, must listen seriously to what
opportunities. In this 17th largest popu- Here it must be pointed out that any increase its trade volumes with the situation will be a very tricky task,. President Rouhani says as he is an
lated country in the world, people ap- step by the US to destabilise Iran may Central Asian republics. Islamabad Another major challenge In- elected leader and must be knowing
pear to have lost all hopes of economic lead to far-reaching consequences af- has been told indirectly that New dia may face will be related to the about the pulse of the people.
Rouhani, who favours lifting of
Any step by US revival owing to the lop-sided policies fecting West Asia, South Asia and many Delhi’s interests in Afghanistan and proposed Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) the curbs on social media, has been
other regions. It will not only complicate
gas pipeline for cheap availability of
of a regime obsessed with acquiring nu-
Central Asian republics cannot be
to destabilise clear weapons targeted at dominating the situation in West Asia but also push jeopardised by denying India access Iranian gas. India had kept itself away quoted to have said, “It would be a
misrepresentation (of events) and also
it further towards China and Russia as is
to Afghanistan by the land route pass-
the Arab-Gulf states. The government
from the ambitious project with the
Iran may lead has so far been successful in suppress- the case with Pakistan. India, in particu- ing through Pakistan. imposition of US sanctions on Iran, an insult to Iranian people to say that
India-Iran relations got strength-
to far-reaching ing people’s desires by using the Islamic lar, will be faced with new challenges to ened when they reached an agree- but New Delhi began to show interest they only had economic demands ...
in it again after 2015, which will be dif- People had economic, political and
Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)
protect its interests in Iran, Afghanistan
consequences enjoying overbearing powers, but now it and Central Asian republics. Under the ment under which India got a 10-year ficult to sustain if the atmosphere of social demands.”
affecting West Asia, has been served a notice: there is a limit prevailing circumstances when the gulf lease to equip and operate two berths US-Iran confrontation re-emerges as Rouhani stands for people being
to this dictatorial practice.
in Chabahar Port Phase-I with an in-
a result of the Trump administration’s allowed the freedom to criticise their
of distrust between the US and Paki-
South Asia and The regime’s repressive policies can stan is growing with every passing day, vestment of USD 85.21 million and an negative policy initiatives. rulers, as is the norm in any con-
India opted for an alternative
ventional democratic set-up. In his
will also affect in no longer help it remain afloat. People’s the super power is showing increased annual revenue expenditure of USD Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan- opinion, “No one is innocent” or be-
22.95 million. Chabahar is seen as a
difficulties on every front will have to be interest in India though with a view to
the long term both accorded top priority to ensure peace primarily protect its own interests in counter to Pakistan’s Gwadar port, India (TAPI) gas pipeline project being yond criticism. Now is the time for the
countries’ relations and stability in the country and the South Asia and the surrounding areas. located at a distance of just 80 km and laid with the US backing, but gas Iranian clergy to have a dispassionate
look at what the Iranian President has
available through this source will not
In any case, India too is bound to be a
built with Chinese assistance.
region.
with China and The Iranian economy had started gainer in such a scenario. Before the India-Iran Chabahar be as cheap as it would be from the IPI been asserting but without success.
But India’s gain in terms of its close
Russia breathing in a normal manner with proximity to the US will be at the cost pact became operational, a trilateral scheme. Keeping in view India’s own letters@tehelka.com
agreement was signed between India, interests, it must continue its efforts
the lifting of the economic sanctions,
Tehelka / 31 january 2018 52 www.Tehelka.com Tehelka / 31 january 2018 53 www.Tehelka.com
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