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s the tightly-contested 2019 Lok Sabha
elections draw to a close, the specula-
tion among political parties has shifted
to post-poll permutations and combi-
A nations that will decide which party or
coalition gets to rule Delhi.
Though the exact numbers will be known only on
May 23, when results for all the 543 Lok Sabha seats
will be out, the ongoing discussions among political
parties revolve around the likely scenarios that may
include a UPA III kind of situation with the Congress
emerging as the single largest party and being able to
rally other like-minded parties or the BJP emerging as
the single largest party but scoring less than the half
way mark of 272 seats and forming an NDA govern-
ment, or a repeat of 2014 when the saffron party got
an absolute majority by winning 282 seats.
The third scenario appears to be the least probable
with hints coming from within the ruling establish-
ment including senior BJP leader Ram Madhav and
Akali Dal leader Naresh Gujaral who have said the
saffron party may not get a clear majority on its own.
Recently, Congress chief Rahul Gandhi too claimed
his party was winning and Prime Minister Narendra
Modi was not coming back to power.
On their part, Congress strategists are hopeful of a
2004 like scenario when the grand old party was able
to stitch the United Progressive Alliance which came
to power at the centre under Prime Minister Manmo-
han Singh. The Congress had reached out to opposi-
tion parties in a major way in 2004 to oust the Atal
Bihari Vajpayee government. The Congress-led coa-
lition performed well during its first tenure and was
re-elected by the voters in the 2009 national elections.
Ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the Congress
had started a nationwide effort to forge opposition
unity by 2018 but lost momentum by year end as most
parties said any such formation would be decided
post-poll.
Picking up the thread towards the last leg of the on-
going national polls, the opposition parties appear to
be working to a plan as they planned a mega meeting
on May 21, two days before the Lok Sabha results, to friendship with the other partners. Keeping that in
discuss government formation. Though still tentative, mind, Rahul carefully avoided giving a clear reply to
the move is indicative of a regrouping with the aim of the question before and even during the Lok Sabha
keeping the BJP out of power. poll campaign.
Talking about the first likely post-poll scenario, Congress strategists said they were aware of the
Congress insiders said they hope to comfortably cross prime ministerial ambitions of several key opposition
the 125 seat mark, up from 44 in 2014, and then be in a leaders and realise that resolving the issue may prove
position to anchor the like-minded parties and arrive to be a bit ticklish but expressed the hope that such
at a workable coalition, whatever be its nomenclature. discussions would not be allowed to fester for too long
Congress sources said though they were absolutely in case of a hung house.
clear that party chief Rahul Gandhi would be their The recent hints of Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh
prime ministerial nominee, the issue was a touchy Yadav that he would prefer the next PM to be from UP
one and would be resolved post-poll in a spirit of and his alliance partner BSP chief Mayawati making

tehelka / 31 may 2019 12 www.tehelka.com