Page 12 - 31DEC2018E

CoverStory POLITICS

he BJP lost elections in all the five states in
the recent Assembly polls. Three of them
Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattis-
T garh were rules by the saffron party. Only
a week before the five states went to polls, no one in
media was ready to believe any suggestion of possible
debacle of BJP. The TV coverage over assembly polls in
Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana
and Mizoram were largely lopsided. Newspapers too
were carrying out agenda of the Sangh Parivar by
providing more space to Ram Mandir issue. How-
ever, the political circle in the national capital had at
least some indication of what was going on in the
minds of people.
Otherwise, they would not have gathered in the
capital to show solidarity with the Rahul Gandhi. They
were hardly ready to accept him till few months back.
Now they were expressing faith in his ability to build
up a momentum against the Modi government. They
had sensed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi was
fast losing his ground. However, a well-organised
campaign in media was not allowing the proposition
to grow till results were announced. The invincibil-
ity of Narendra Modi-Amit Shah was being sold with
all vigour. The practice has not died down even after
the collapse of the saffron party in five states. Reasons
of debacle are being discovered in failures of local
leaderships. The chief ministers of the three states
are being held responsible for it. Very few in the me-
dia are ready to accept the emergence of Congress as
the winner and the gains are being portrayed as
unexpected ones. Is this a right perspective?
RESULTS AT GLANCE
The Congress could not reverse the tally in Mad -
hya Pradesh and it was photo finish with Congress
having 114 seats and BJP 109. The BJP lost 56 of 165
seats it had won in 2013. The Congress had only 58
seats. The percentage of votes to BJP dropped by 4 per Congress gained
6.4 per cent voteshare
cent and it gained 41 per cent. The Congress gained in Rajasthan Assembly
4.5 per cent of the vote and won 40.9 per cent. The elections
BJP had won 27 seats with 54.76 per cent of the vote
in 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The Congress had a vote
share of 35 per cent and could win only 2 seats. If we
project the scenario of 2019 polls, the Congress is Projections for 2019 suggest 13 seats to BJP and 12 to share of BJP was 49.6 per cent. The Congress could get cent of the vote and Congress 30.2 per cent. The Con-
expected to win 12 seats and BJP 17. Congress. only 39 per cent. gress lost 14.4 per cent of the vote it had gained in 2013.
The result in Rajasthan was not different so far as In Chhattisgarh, the Congress has got 43.2 per cent In Telangana, the TRS-led by K Chandrashekhar Rao If we examine the political developments that had
the vote share is concerned. The Congress has 39.3 per of the vote and the BJP 32.9 per cent. The BJP lost 8 swept the polls by taking 88 seats of 119 seats. The Con- preceded the state polls, we can gain some insight of
cent and BJP has 38.8 per cent. The Congress won 99 per cent of the vote it had gained in 2013. However, the gress got only 19 seats and the BJP 1. The ruling party what was going on in these regions. The BJP was los-
seats and the BJP 73. The tally in 2013 was 21 and 163 Congress could gain only 2 per cent of it. The remain- got 26.9 per cent of the vote and the Congress 28.4 per ing successive bypolls and civic polls and it had start-
for Congress and BJP respectively. The BJP lost 6.2 per ing vote went to others including BSP. The Congress cent. The AIMIM led by Owaisi won 7 seats. ed just after Modi took over. The pace was acceler-
cent of the vote and Congress gained 6.4 per cent. If swept the polls and got 68 seats. The BJP won only 15 In Mizoram, the Mizo National Front got a decisive ated afterwards and we saw how an opposition unity
we take into account vote and seat share of 2014 Lok seats. The projections for 2019 polls suggest 10 Lok victory over Congress. The party got 26 of 40 seats. The brought victory in Gorakhpur and Phoolpur in Uttar
Sabha elections, there was a wide gap. The BJP had Sabha seats to Congress and 1 to BJP. In 2014, the Con- Congress could win only 5 seats. In 2013, the Congress Pradesh. Gorakhpur seat was held by Chief Minister
swept the polls and Congress failed to gain any seat. gress had won only 1 and the BJP 10. In 2014, the vote had got 34 and the MNF 5 seats. The MNF won 37.6 per Adityanath Yogi. But the BJP leadership was not ready

TEHELKA / 31 DECEMBER 2018 12 WWW.TEHELKA.COM TEHELKA / 31 DECEMBER 2018 13 WWW.TEHELKA.COM

10-21 24th CStory.indd 4 12/14/2018 8:43:16 PM 10-21 24th CStory.indd 5 12/14/2018 8:43:24 PM