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election 2018
general elections 2019

Uncle Sam has come to take care of it.” The BJP’s first list of candidates includes 150 re-run-
“Let’s prepare 2024” ning candidates, including 128 sitting MPs.The other
The above reflects what one generation of the 146 candidates are new, including 34 candidates in
dynasty can do to a dynastic party. There are three seats the BJP did not contest in 2014 (mostly in Andhra
prominent non-dynastic parties in India. The BJP has Pradesh). Contrary to expectations, only 44 MPs are
elected, over the last few decades, leaders of the calib- not re-running, , including in five seats given to the
er of Atal Bihari Vajpayee, L.K. Advani, and Narendra JD(U) as part of the alliance agreement in Bihar and
Modi as its front rank leaders. When the new genera- including one seat where no by-election took place
tion of the Left took over, their dominant faces were after the incumbent, Bhola Singh, passed away.
men like Prakash Karat and Sitaram Yechury. A few veterans, such as LK Advani, Bandaru Dat-
Despite the limited impact of the Left, they had dec- tatreya, Karya Munda and Shanta Kumar, have been
ades of experience and ideological clarity. After a se- left out. The BJP has re-nominated several sitting MPs
ries of splits and mergers, the Janata Dal (United), an-
other non-dynastic party, elected Nitish Kumar, who
will shortly be completing his third term in his office the election commission
as Chief Minister. It goes to his credit that he changed
the governance culture of Bihar. of india has put the voter
Wrongly assessing capacity
Dynasties impose leaders. These leaders don’t be- turnout in the first phase
come great – greatness is thrust on them. Some suffer
from what psychologists now regard as the ‘Dunning- of lok sabha elections
Kruger effect.’ Social psychologists Dr. David Dunning
and Justin Kruger have given an apt description. They conducted across 18 states
believe that those who suffer from this effect have a
bias of illusory superiority which comes from the in- and two Union territories
ability of low-ability people to recognise their lack
of ability. Without the self-awareness of their limi- at 69.43%. it doesn’t
tations, such low ability people cannot objectively
evaluate their own competence or incompetence.
This leads to their miscalculation in their assessment include few polling booths
of the caliber of highly incompetent ones. They sug-
gest that poor performers are not in a position to rec- in remote areas, eci adds
ognise their shortcomings and consequently are in-
secure and biased against the more competent ones.
There is little place for men of high caliber in dynastic
parties. An insecure leader is scared of the shadow of in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra and
more talented people. Karnataka, while most candidates who ran in states
Is this the reason for the current mood within the where the BJP did not perform in 2014 have been
Congress Party? Or is it also the reason which per- changed.
suades the Congress President to cross the line of de- The Congress, on the other hand, is fielding mostly
cency and dignity when he refers to the Prime Min- new faces. It has so far nominated 150 new candidates,
ister? This should suffice as a lesson for the dynastic including 11 in seats it did not contest in 2014. Only 68
parties. They succeed on the strength of some genera- Congress candidates who ran in 2014 are contesting,
tions of the dynasty. They sink with the others. including 22 incumbent MPs. Eight MPs are currently
out, including KV Thomas and KC Venugopal in Kerala,
candidates’ analysis and Mausam Noor in West Bengal. The Congress has
Assistant Professor of Political Science and Co-Di- thoroughly reshuffled its decks in Andhra Pradesh,
rector, Trivedi Centre for Political Data, Ashoka Uni- Kerala, Maharashtra, and Uttar Pradesh.
versity has analyzed the scenario few weeks ahead of While we are yet to have complete lists, the trend
the first phase of polling, as both national parties have so far gives a relevant indication as far as women and
declared most or half of their candidates. The BJP has Muslims representation is concerned.
already announced 296 candidates (excluding one
independent candidate that it supports), against 218 space for Women
candidates announced by the Congress. Both parties have a history of paying lip service to

Tehelka / 30 april 2019 17 www.Tehelka.com