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he poll scenario of 2019 has   Political developments of past few   to reduce its over-dependence on these
                 taken a new turn. The BJP   months speak a different story. It is   parties in Lok Sabha polls.
                 was expecting a fractured   amply clear that it is Congress which   People may argue that these par-
                 opposition without any   wanted an anti-BJP poll alliance with-  ties were of no consequence in these
         T proper coordination. How-      out being an actual partner of it. It only   states. However, facts do not support
         ever, this did not come true. The Op-  wanted to sustain a strong anti-Modi   it. The BSP had considerable presence
         position is more united than ever, but   narrative without being a part of a   in three Hindi-speaking states of Ra-
         the shape of this unity is different. The   functional non-BJP formation. In fact,   jasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhat-
         Congress which was trying to become   the party had different strategy. It want-  tisgarh. In Chhattisgarh, the BSP with
         the leader of a united Opposition failed   ed create an independent appeal. Rahul   Ajit Jogi’s party was even a formidable
         to acquire the leadership. It is certainly   Gandhi tested this strategy in recently   third force. The social alliance that had
         giving comfort to BJP. But this has hard-  held assembly elections of five states. If   emerged after two parties joined hands
         ly lessened the intensity of opposition   we go into the complaints of Samajwadi   was really strong. Congress president
         to the saffron party.            Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party that   Rahul Gandhi, in fact, gambled by ig-
           Most of the non-BJP and non-Con-  the Congress ignored them and made   noring it. However, came out successful.
         gress parties have joined hands and the   no effort of poll alliance in assembly   Congress strategy in states in as-
         alliance has many former BJP allies in it   polls, we can get some insight about the   sembly polls was to place the party as
         as well. The poll equations that have de-  pattern.              a party which could gain support of all
         veloped across states is also no so com-  Some media reports even reported   the sections of the society. In fact, the


                  The twists in the tale



                      of Lok Sabha polls






               Even as the Congress has failed to acquire the leadership of the bloc, the current political
          developments suggest that BJP may face strong opposition in most of the states, writes anil sinha



         fortable for the BJP. In most of the states,   that personal communication between   party was eyeing votes of the upper
         BJP will be facing a strong Opposition.   Akhilesh and Rahul Gandhi was no   castes which were angry with the BJP
         The scenario of triangular contests in   more in existence when these states   over the issue of anti-atrocity laws. Go-
         many states also does not seem to be fa-  were undergoing elections. They high-  ing with the BSP might have alienated
         voring the ruling party led by Narendra   lighted that the communication were   these votes. The strategy worked well
         Modi and Amit Shah.              actually snapped just before the as-  and the Congress could make a dent
           A superficial observation will make   sembly polls and Akhilesh felt hurt by   into the upper caste base of the BJP.
         one believe that exclusion of Congress   this sudden change of gesture  by Rahul   Rahul has built up his strategy for
         from the conglomeration of opposition   Gandhi who he considered as a close   2019 poll on the experiences his party
         parties is a failure of the party to mobi-  friend. Similar complaints were made   has gained in assembly polls. The core
         lize anti-BJP political forces BJP under   by BSP as well. The party said that the   of his strategy is to create an independ-
         one umbrella. A close look will, how-  Congress did not seriously discuss the   ent Opposition narrative with the Con-
         ever, reveal otherwise. Was it really a   alliance. These allegations show that   gress in the center. He is claiming his
         weak initiative on the part of Congress   the Congress was determined to go   party is fighting a battle of ideology
         that sent the party out of a poll alliance?   alone in the assembly polls. Congress   against Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
         Are the opposition parties really keen   probably wanted to beat the narrative   This alternative narrative of Modi’s op-
         in keeping the grand old party out of a   that it had no choice but to embrace   position has governance, economy and
         non-BJP poll front?              parties like SP or BSP. The party had also   corruption as core issues. Most of the



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