India couldfind new opportunities with Trump back in the White House, but it will need to reposition its strategies to reassert its rightful role in the emerging world order, writes Gopal Misra
Donald Trump, who served as the President of the US during 2017-21, is now poised to reoccupy the White House as the country’s 47th President, on January 20, 2025. Few may recollect that Donald Trump hosted reality TV shows, The Apprentice, and The Celebrity Apprentice from 2014 to 2015. He also has made dozens of cameo appearances in films and TV serials and various advertisement films. Apart from winning the Worst Supporting Actor Award at the 11th Golden Raspberry Award for “Ghosts can’t do it” in 1990. In 2019, he won the Worst Actor and Worst Screen Combo at the 39th Golden Raspberry Awards for his role in the documentary film “Death of a Nation and Fahrenheit 11/9” in 2019. There is a dialogue in one of his television serials, which says “You are fired”, that reflects the fragile job markets in the US; it becomes also relevant when despite huge financial support of the country’s military-industrial complex, Kamala Harris, aiming for the presidential office suffered a humiliating defeat in November election.
It has not been just an electorate selecting a new president in the country, but the re-election of Donald Trump, a former President, to lead the world’s most powerful country again entails a new set of opportunities and challenges, sometimes directly or often indirectly, affecting and influencing the countries around the continents.
With Donald Trump’s political supremacy being recognized and established by his political rivals, the recently concluded election also has a spicy taste of a theatre or the show world, he had been associated through a number of assignments. In one of them, the common corporate exclamation “you are fired!” is being remembered.
The initial reactions of the bitterly contested election held recently in the US have not only sent shock waves in the domestic American politics, but were also being focused by the major world powers, including Russia and China. Their reactions varied: either being subdued or more cautious than expected. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy too have greeted Trump for his victory. Interestingly, Netanyahu was told in the last week of October that the Gaza conflict must end before his Administration is inaugurated, and Zelenskyy too is quite aware of the fact that the Trump Administration would not be giving support to his country anymore.
In the US, the presidential election process is somewhat complex, but it has garnered so much attention in distant lands that even the uninitiated in India are aware of what the red and blue states represent: the American political parties, Republicans and Democrats, respectively. Similarly, they know that the states described as purple are actually the ‘swing states’ or battleground states. The changing preferences of the electorate in these swing states—such as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania—among the seven out of the 50 US states impact a candidate’s prospects. Despite Kamala Harris of the Democratic Party appearing to be a formidable candidate, she could only secure 226 votes in the electoral college. Meanwhile, Trump crossed the 270 mark to secure his majority, ultimately receiving 295 votes in the final tally.
Reorienting the strategies
India now having a much more friendly regime in Washington, needs to review her lack-lustre approach towards various issues, especially in the key areas of economics and strategic affairs. It is quite well known that the Indians being a part of India’s pleasant tropical environment are prone to laziness. In other words, India should avoid being lured to slumber with a friendly President in the White House. According to well-known defence experts, she has to reorient her strategies and efforts for becoming a strong partner of the democratic world, especially in the context of a noted drift in her manufacturing systems and strategic efforts in her immediate neighbourhood. They quietly point out that it cannot be denied that in recent years, instead of stressing for substantial gains in various key and strategic areas, more emphasis was being given to unnecessary rhetoric, perhaps, only to give a macho-look to the Indian leadership. It is being felt in the knowledgeable sections of New Delhi that this much-trumpeted approach might prove counter-productive, while dealing with the new American President.
In this context, it is being suggested that the present Indian establishment under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, perhaps, has to become much more result-oriented than it had been during President Joe Biden’s tenure. Following the exit of the Biden regime, Donald’s Trump’s second inning will formally begin in the next two months, in the Whitehouse, but the process of change, especially focusing on ending conflicts, is expected to be witnessed during this transitional period.
During this historic transition, Indians, in their role as the most trusted ally in Asia, must reinvent and reinvigorate themselves for a meaningful, mutually beneficial contribution to the new emerging world order emphasised by Trump. For many, it was perhaps easier for the mandarins in New Delhi to navigate dealings with naives occupying key positions in the American power structure during the outgoing regime
It included a section of them identifying with the West’s outdated colonial agenda, such as reinventing radical Islam in Bangladesh or being reluctant to challenge the clergy regime in Iran. Before the final epitaph is scripted on the burial site of the Biden regime, the Indians have to weave a new narrative for not only dealing with the US Administration, but they have also to reinvent a new investment-friendly environment. It is worth noting that the Modi regime, which succeeded Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh’s 10-year tenure did not unleash the shackles on the economy. Instead, tax and police officials were often deployed to serve the political interests of the day.
With the arrival of Trump on the political scene, if the Modi government is keen to be benefitted by the friendly regime, it finally has to restore the process of the economic reforms and transparency in the Indian domestic systems. It is going to be difficult for the Modi government to resort to excuses that due to the apathy of the outgoing Biden Administration, it could not perform as expected. It has to abandon the repeated efforts to camouflage its claims quoting some known and unknown statistics. A recent visit to any Indian market will reveal that for the past 10 years, India has continuously been importing toys and lights for the Deepawali illuminations and even idols of Ganesh-Lakshmi are being imported from China. Thus, she is estimated to have contributed about 1200 billion USD during this period to the Chinese economy by suffering a perennial trade deficit with her northern neighbour.
It is hoped that the next two months are going to be crucial for the forces playing a key-role in the global strategic issues and trade policies. It was not surprising that a reluctant Chinese President, XI Jinping, finally greeted the president-elect Trump. In a cautious message, he expressed hope that the two countries would finally succeed in evolving a strong mechanism for dialogue on tricky issues, including the trade war, the future of Taiwan and the strategic issues related to the South China Sea. Meanwhile, Germany has been suffering financial losses due to the sudden cancellation of the orders for weapons and ammunition from Ukraine. It, however, is expected that this financial loss could just be temporary, if the ceasefire begins on the East European war front. The other members of the European Union might also get some respite, if the forces of peace are finally activated.
With the new political incarnation or avatar, Trump, is expected to win back the US allies in the West. During his earlier tenure, they were unhappy that Trump had asked them to cough up the high cost of the security umbrella under NATO, but the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, appears to have chastised them. They are now willing to work together for security, freedom and free-trade.
India has its task cut out – The discussion regarding the possible impact of the new US Administration on India will remain inconclusive if Trump’s global agenda is not properly understood. It can be explained that the US has to regain its economic power by synergizing the state-of-the art technologies. In one of his election speeches, he had asked for giving job visas to the Indians, who become millionaires in their home country after studying in the USA. In other words, it means that New Delhi has to work overtime to reposition India by updating her technologies, and also introduce transparency in business and trade dealings with the US-led West. The insiders, however, both in the South Bloc, which houses the PMO, defence and foreign affairs, and the North Bloc, the headquarters of the home and finance ministries, concede that it could, indeed, be a tough task, but not impossible.
It is expected that a friendly Administration in Washington will be helping India to re-win her allies and friends in the region. In recent years, India has also been smarting under Biden’s pro-China policy. Perhaps, due to the financial pressures of his family, including his son, Hunter, and other American investors, he was unable to formulate any far-reaching political strategy to deal with the Dragon.
However, India has much homework to do in dealing with a friendly president in Washington. Trump’s four-year exile from power, marred by embarrassing and unsubstantiated accusations, has transformed him into a more mature, weather-beaten politician—now ready to step into the role of a statesman.
The upshot of his election campaigns and observations during the recent months for his countrymen, allies and associates have been, “We have to sink and swim together.” No more false hopes and agenda for conflicts, and the US citizens no more have to bleed for others, whether it is Afghanistan or Ukraine.
India, indeed, as a number of defence and foreign affairs experts point out, can be benefitted by Trump’s presence in the White House, but she has to revamp and reinvent her strategies to reassert her legitimate role.
Kamala Harris’ election office in Washington was reluctant when the election results started pouring in. But, later, she not only maintained the decorum of a democratic leader, but also congratulated Trump for his election victory, but she also told a high-profile gathering at the Harvard University, that despite being coming from a humble background, she never expected that she would be occupying such a high-position in the American establishment, and could also be contesting for the presidency.
Meanwhile, it appears that the liberal funding to the Russia-Ukraine War has adversely affected American resources, which in turn impacted the relief offered to the hurricane victims. Besides the political storm that has been hitting America, a large population of the US has suffered from the hurricanes during the months of September, October and November. The victims, despite assurances from the top officials including Kamala Harris, are struggling for survival.
The two hurricanes, Helene and Milton, have already hit the Mexican bay in September and October causing widespread damages, and the new cyclone is expected to hit the coastal areas any time. It is likely to cross the Bay of Mexico in November. Already five hurricanes have made landfalls in the USA. In spite of her personal efforts, Kamala Harris could get only USD 750 per household for the cyclone victims from the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which has reported that it does not have adequate funds for the thousands of the homeless starving victims.
Melania Trump, who served as the first lady from 2017 to through 2021, has issued a statement on social media, “We will safeguard the heart of our republic—freedom, I anticipate the citizens of our nation re-joining the commitment to each other and rising above ideology for the sake of individual liberty. She further says, “American energy, skill and initiative will bring together our best minds to propel our nation forwards forever.”
Will Trump walk the tax talk?
The President-elect, Donald Trump has proposed to eliminate the income tax on American citizens, according to an American media channel. He has assured that he would soon be announcing a tariff plan to end this draconian system of harassing the citizens.
Elon Musk, one of the world’s most admired billionaires, is expected to usher in an era of eliminating redundancies in the vast government machinery as well as stopping wasteful expenditures in the government institutions. As promised by Trump, he would soon be leading the DODGE or a new department of government efficiency. Like India, the unnecessary expansion of government offices in the USA has not only slowed the functioning of the government, it has adversely affected the economy of the state.
In India, in spite of the assurances of the successive prime ministers, the nexus between the politicians and the civil servants have compromised the efficiency of the administration. The Indian bureaucracy has expanded like an octopus, almost stifling the Indian initiative in every walk of life, especially in developing modern agriculture, Indian industry, the state-of-the art technology and world-class education.
Trump’s team: Who’s in the running?
Both the electronic and print media across the continents are abuzz with the names of the probables, who might be occupying key positions in the cabinet of Donald Trump. He is expected to finalize the names before his formal inauguration in January next year. The aspirants include John Paulson for Treasury Secretary, Marco Rubio or Richard Grenell, Rubio has served as the acting Director of the National Intelligence, and Grenell has served as Ambassador to Germany, for the Secretary of State, Elon Musk, and Robert F. Kennedy too is expected to be inducted in the new Administration. It may be recalled that Robert F. Kennedy, son of the assassinated senator, Bobby Kennedy and nephew of JFK, could be asked to lead the health department, especially in the context of the controversial role of Beijing and a section of American corporate.
Former CIA director, and secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, might be heading the defence establishment as the secretary of defence. It is not known what strategy Trump would be adopting in the case of Attorney General, Jack Smith, who reportedly has been supervising the ongoing criminal cases against Trump under the Justice Department.
