Slaughter house files

Ajmal Kasab and Abu Ismail could have been thwarted. Transcripts of police officers’ frantic calls from Ground Zero on 26/11 reveal a story of terrifying — almost criminal — official chaos. Harinder Baweja reconstructs that apocalyptic night
THE EVENTS of that night are only too well known, they are etched in the nation’s conscience. That night, on 26/11, terror unfolded, step by step and went something like this — ten well-armed terrorists got off a dinghy and walked ashore in the posh Gateway of India area and broke up into pairs. Trained to navigate the high seas and wage high-tech urban jehad, each pair had been tasked to separate locations. The first bullet rang out at Colaba’s popular Leopold Café, just after 9.30.
Yes, the events of that night are only too well known, but the truth is not. Police call log records accessed by TEHELKA reveal the utter chaos that also unfolded, step by step. Mumbai, of all places, has been struck by terror once too often, beginning with the multiple blasts that exploded in quick succession in March 1993. For the record, the financial nerve centre has fifty commandos who have been trained by the National Security Guards, but that night, no one thought of tasking them. For the record, the Mumbai Police also has a standard operating procedure that is supposed to kick in under the command and control of the Commissioner of Police but that too failed.
The police transcripts — each phone call, each walkie talkie communication is recorded — reveals a chilling story. One of the pairs, Ajmal Kasab and Abu Ismail, walked into the teeming Chattrapati Shivaji Terminus (CST) and went about their business of spraying death. Platform number 13 was full of passengers and the duo felled 37 people before they walked out of the Terminus and towards the Times of India Building. Within minutes, they had entered Cama Hospital.

There are critical questions the Mumbai police needs to answer. First, why did it not respond to its own officers’ calls for help?

Mumbai was under attack and the police control room was buzzing. At precisely 22.29 pm, the Azad Maidan police station (barely a stone’s throw from Cama) called South Control (Mumbai Police is divided into regions and zones) and, as per the call log record, this is what was conveyed: “Two terrorists from CST are walking towards Azad Maidan”.
The messages kept coming:
22.38 pm: Azad Maidan to South Control again: They are walking in the lane towards Special Branch 1 office.
22.39 pm: Beat Martial to South Control: Can see suspicious looking persons with bags on their backs.
22.40 pm: Have you got my message that there are two suspicious people.
22.54 pm: Peter MRR to Control: There is firing in the TOI lane.
22.59 pm: LT Marg 1 to Control: Terrorists have reached Cama.

Tell Tale After shooting at Victoria Terminus
Photo: Deepak Salvi

Ironically, Kasab and Ismail had even walked into the Azad Maidan police station compound and tried to enter the residence of Brijesh, a Deputy Commissioner of Police. The pair had gone about their business with little resistance at CST and appeared emboldened. They had, in fact, walked all the way from CST to Cama without any resistance. It is clear from the log that the Control Room was aware of their movement from 22.29 —when Azad Maidan alerted their bosses — to 22.59, the precise minute that Kasab and Ismail had entered Cama. Thirty long minutes during which they were being tracked but not intercepted.

Kasab and Ismail even walked into the Azad Maidan police station compound and tried to enter an officer’s residence

Mumbai Police officers acted on their own, but clearly with no command or control to guide them. One such officer was Sadanand Date, Additional Commissioner of Police, incharge of Mumbai’s Central Region. The terror attacks were not taking place in his jurisdiction but he contacted Control after he received word from the Worli Division. He immediately sent an SMS to the Additional CP (South) and the Joint Commissioner of Police (Law and Order). He was asked to go to CST and Date was soon on his way.
READ DATE’S account — gleaned from the transcripts and the 26/11 charge sheet — carefully. It captures the chaos and rigor mortis that the senior officers were seized by. What Date experienced that night is both callous and harrowing.

Ismail and Kasab moved unhindered to Cama Hospital
Photo: Kamlesh Pednekar/DNA

Kasab and Ismail reached Cama at 22.59 and Date arrived at 23.05. He had been asked to go to CST but after leaving home, he went to the Malabar Hill police station and got a carbine issued. He asked for bullet proof jackets for his team but none were available (only he and his operator had bullet proof vests). While on their way to CST, Date met police inspector More who informed him about the firing at Special Branch 1 and learnt that the terrorists had entered Cama and had taken patients and nurses hostage on the fourth floor.
As he entered Cama, he saw two dead bodies at the front entrance and the watchman told him that the nursing staff on the fourth floor had been desperately calling for him. Date told his operator to inform the Control room about the situation. He then proceeded to the sixth floor of the multistoried building in the Cama compound and threw a metal object towards the terrace where Kasab and Ismail had taken position. The minute the object was thrown, there was a burst of fire from the terrace.
Date and his team took positions in the passage of the sixth floor and called Control to update them about their position and the firing. At 23.19, the first call for reinforcements was sent out. Date thought he could pin down the terrorists on the terrace till the reinforcements arrived.
Now read the police log carefully and find out what happened after the first call for reinforcements at 23.19.
23.19: Firing going on in Cama hospital. Send commandos immediately. Central Region sir is present.
Control: Noted.
23.20: Firing going on, on the sixth floor. Help quickly.
23.20: Central region walkie talkie sends out a desperate message: Make arrangements for bullet proof jackets.
Control: Noted.
23.23: Two-three blasts have taken place. Help immediately.
23.25: South Control to Control: Firing going on, on sixth floor of Cama. Need reinforcements. Send the nearest striking (team).
23.26: Shortage of striking at Cama.
23.27: Send striking to Cama, running short of men.
In a Free State Ismail and Kasab had a free run at Victoria Terminus.

23.28: (Date is now desperate. He and his men have been injured) Central Region walkie talkie sends out an SOS: Heavy firing. We are all injured. Need help. Please send reinforcements.
So, what was happening on the sixth floor where Date and his team had taken position?
Soon after Date took position in the passage of the sixth floor, the terrorists lobbed a grenade. One officer and two men were badly injured and Date’s right eye blacked out after a splinter injury. Date’s operator was not in a position to fire so Date took his carbine and fired.

Date and his men were badly injured but retreat was not an honourable option. Women and babies were stuck below

Reinforcements did not arrive but retreat was not an honourable option because women and newborn babies were stuck on the fourth floor. At 23.25, Date asked his operator and the injured men to go down for medical help and also asked them to convey the message for reinforcements. Sub Inspector More and PC Khandekar could not be sent down because they lay unconscious on the floor.
Date and Kasab/Ismail exchanged fire for another 25 minutes and Date was hit again and his left leg badly injured. It was now around midnight. The pair lobbed one more grenade at Date’s direction and crossed the landing between the sixth and the fifth floor.

Kasab and Ismail could’ve been caught on the terrace. They could’ve been stopped from leaving cama. They were not

There are many critical questions that the Mumbai Police need to answer.

Kasab looks disturbingly at ease
Photo: AP

QUESTION 1: Why did the reinforcements not arrive? If the calls for help had been heeded, Kasab and Ismail would not have been able to leave the terrace of Cama Hospital.
The question is critical because if Kasab and Ismail had not left Cama, ATS Chief Hemant Karkare, ACP (East region) Ashok Kamte and encounter specialist Vijay Salaskar would be alive.

A LITTLE MORE on Date, first. After he saw the two terrorists leave, he sent an SMS to the Joint CP (Law and Order) and to the DCP Zone V at 00.00 hours informing them about the departure of the assailants, that they had automatic weapons and grenades. He also gave the exit route the terrorists had taken and called for help, saying he needed to be evacuated as he was injured in the eye and in the left leg. Khandekar and More too needed to be evacuated. They still lay unconscious on the floor.
Date waited from 00.00 to 00.45 hours but neither did he get a reply to his SMS and nor did anyone come to his aid. He finally called the assistant commissioner of police, Central region, who came and took him to hospital. Khandekar and More died. Nobody from the South region came to the aid of the injured and the dead. Nobody even sent reinforcements.
While Date was battling Kasab and Ismail, Karkare, Kamte and Salaskar had come towards Cama. They had not been sent as reinforcements for Date, but had come after they — like Date — had learnt that firing was going on at Cama.
Kamte had, at first been asked by Mumbai Police Commissioner, Hasan Gafoor, to come to Hotel Oberoi, and was then asked by JCP (Crime) Rakesh Maria — who was manning the Control room — to go towards Cama. Karkare went to CST and from there, by foot, towards Cama. Salaskar’s movements have been detailed by Arun Jadhav in the charge sheet. (Jadhav survived to give a first hand account of what happened to Karkare, Kamat and Salaskar. He was in the same car as them when Kasab and Ismail opened fire, killing all three officers in one go.)

Kamte — in an act of supreme bravery — got off the car and fired into the bushes. He managed to wound Kasab

According to Jadhav’s statement, he was informed of some firing in Colaba at 21.45 by his colleague Alak Noor, who also asked him to call Salaskar. Salaskar then told Jadhav to get weapons issued and come to Colaba Police Station. He took a carbine and 35 rounds and reached the police station. Salaskar and Noor were already there. They got to know from the Control room that some persons were walking towards Special Branch office, after firing at CST, and that they had entered Cama. The three of them got into a car and went towards Cama, where they met up with Kamte and Karkare, who had taken up positions there. They were all at the rear gate of Cama.

State of the Nation Karkare’s wife mourns her brave husband. The system did not just betray the people, but even the police itself
Photo: Deepak Salvi

Soon, they saw an injured policeman walking towards them. Just then, they were fired on, from the Cama terrace and, according to Jadhav, Kamte returned the fire with his AK 47. The injured policeman told them that an injured Date was on the 6th floor and that others too had been injured. Karkare, Kamte and Salaskar had a quick discussion and decided to move towards the front gate — they knew Kasab and Ismail would try and escape from the front. (While the entire Cama compound has many exits and entries, the multistory building on whose terrace Kasab and Ismail were on had only one exit/entry — a front gate).
Before they could start walking — under cover — towards that front gate, they noticed a Qualis police jeep which belonged to the nearby Paidhuni police station. Salaskar sat in front on the driver’s seat, Kamte to his left and Karkare on the back seat. Jadhav and three others got in from the rear on the two slim seats at the back. While the Qualis was making its way towards Special Branch 1, information came from the Control Room that the two terrorists had taken shelter behind a red car in the nearby Rang Bhawan lane. Kamte told Salaskar to go towards the lane.

The ATS chief, Kamte and an encounter specialist lay on the road for at least forty minutes. No ambulance came for them

But, before we go into the details of what happened in the lane, it is important to recount what happened when Karkare, Kamte and Salaskar were at the rear side of Cama. It is clear from Date’s statement and the call log record that Kasab and Ismail only left the Cama terrace at about midnight, when Date sent out the SMS.
Before that, at 23.20, to be precise, ATS Chief, Karkare (code named Victor on the Motorola wireless channel) sent out an urgent message:
23.19, Victor to Control: We are at Cama hospital. There is firing going on here. Blasts are taking place. Three or four grenade blasts have taken place in front of us in the last five minutes. It is essential to encircle. We are next to Special Branch office. Send a team to the front of Cama Hospital and tell them to co-ordinate, so there is no cross firing. Prasad (JCP Law and Order, who was also in the Control room with Maria) will be there. Tell him to speak to the army and send commandos.
Control confirms what Victor has just relayed and asks, “Sir, in front of the building, right?”
Another SOS is sent after a few minutes.
23.28, Victor to Control: ATS and Quick Response Teams, Crime teams are on the side of Special Branch. We need to encircle Cama. Ask Prasad to request the army.
23.30: Noted.
Reinforcements had not come to Date’s rescue. They did not come to the rescue of Karkare, Kamte and Salaskar.
QUESTION 2: Why was the front gate (the only exit Kasab and Ismail could possibly take) not encircled?
Kasab and Ismail could first have been taken on the terrace but that did not happen. Next, they could have been prevented from leaving Cama but that did not happen either, despite desperate calls from Karkare. Mumbai Police Headquarters is barely three blocks away from Cama. Why were reinforcements not sent? Why was the gate not secured? Had the gate been secured with reinforcements, Karkare, Kamte and Salaskar need not have died. They were definitely there from 11.20 to midnight.

QUESTION 3: Why were a full forty minutes wasted? (When IC 814 was hijacked from Kathmandu, the Crisis Management Group failed to prevent the plane from leaving Amritsar. That proved to be a costly mistake, for the plane was eventually flown to Kandahar and the passengers were secured only after three terrorists were traded in their place.)
Instead of feeling any heat or pressure, Kasab and Ismail sailed out of the front gate and came towards the Rang Bhawan lane, totally unhindered. Here, they took shelter behind the red car in a thicket.

Kamte had told Salaskar to drive towards the Rang Bhawan lane after receiving information from Control that the terrorists were hiding there. The Qualis was barely 100 to 150 meters away from the red car, when a burst of fire came in its direction. According to Jadhav’s statement, “Suddenly, there was a burst of fire at our car from the right hand side. I saw two persons with AK 47s. Karkare Sir, Kamte Sir and Salaskar sir also started firing. I got a bullet on my left hand and shoulder and my carbine fell from my hand and I couldn’t pick it up.”

When vinita kamte asked the police for her husband’s call records, JCP (crime) Rakesh Maria stalled her wilfully

THROUGH THE volley of fire, Kamte — in an act of supreme bravery — got off the car and fired in the direction of the bushes. Kamte hit one target and succeeded in injuring Kasab, who got a bullet on his hand. To continue with Jadhav’s statement, “The two kept firing and Karkare sir, Kamte sir and Salaskar sir also got injured. Firing stopped after a while. The taller one (Ismail) came to our car and tried to open the back door but it didn’t open. I pretended to be dead. The person next to me had fallen on top of me. Soon after, the front door opened and the car started moving. The taller one drove the car and it was speeding on Mahapalika Road and I realized that Karkare sir, Kamte Sir and Salaskar Sir were not on their seats. They stopped the car behind Vidhan Sauda (Assembly) and got off the car. Again, I heard the sound of firing.”
Unknown to Jadhav, Karkare, Kamte and Salaskar were thrown out of the Qualis. Salaskar was still alive when taken to the hospital, where he was declared dead at 01.05.
QUESTION 4: Could Salaskar have been saved if he had been taken to the hospital on time?
Karkare, Kamte and Salaskar were shot at about 00.05, according to police records:

00.19, South Control to Unknown walkie talkie: Public is saying that a police vehicle has been hijacked.
00.25, Control to Abal mobile: Qualis car has been kidnapped.
00.40, South Control to Peter LT Marg: Send reinforcements to Special Branch 1 lane. There, 2 / 3 persons have been injured. I think it is Kamte Sahib. Send reinforcements immediately.
Nobody came to the rescue of Karkare, Kamte and Salaskar till at least 00.40. The ATS chief, the ACP (East region) and an encounter specialist lay on the road for at least forty minutes. Reinforcements had not come earlier and now, no ambulance was in sight. By 00.25, Jadhav — according to the call log records — had sent a wireless message from the Qualis saying, “From Rang Bhawan lane, a Qualis car has been kidnapped after firing at Salaskar Sir, ATS Sir and East region Sir. Now, the terrorists have left the car near State Bank of Mysore, Mantralaya.

Ask no questions JCP (Crime) Rakesh Maria should have been in control. He was not.
Photo: Kamlesh Pednekar/DNA

The families of the policemen who laid down their lives in the call of duty — and with no response to any of their SOSs — are distressed and disturbed. Vinita Kamte wanted to understand the circumstances in which her husband, Ashok Kamte died. She was tired of answering the question as to why all three senior officers were together and decided to seek answers from her husband’s senior colleagues, but realised, soon enough that she was being misled.
It was, with difficulty, she says, that she even got the JCP (Crime), Rakesh Maria to issue a press statement acknowledging that it was her husband who injured Kasab. Vinita told TEHELKA, “I told him that it was absolutely fine if it was not Ashok who injured Kasab, but if it was, then I am not going to let you share that bullet with anybody.” She had found out from eyewitnesses that Ashok had come out of the car and fired. Kasab’s interrogation confirmed the fact that one officer in uniform got off the car and fired. Kamte was the only one in uniform that night.
She also wanted to see the log details of her husband’s calls but despite writing to Commissioner of Police Hasan Gafoor, Vinita Kamte got no reply. “I was being told different stories. Instead of being gracious, they were only misleading me.” Vinita then filed an RTI application with the help of her advocate sister Revati Dere, but Rakesh Maria, in a telltale response, wrote to the Information officer saying, “Reject the application under Section 8(h) {impeding the process of investigation}.
QUESTION 5: Why is a Joint Commissioner of Police trying to mislead the families?
Maria was within his rights to say he cannot part with the information, but in his letter (a copy of which is with TEHELKA), he is clearly pressurising the Information Officer. Not one to give up, Vinita appealed against the RTI order and now has got permission to inspect the call record. The subsequent order, passed by a DCP is damning, for it says that Maria had indeed tried to pressurise the Information officer and that Vinita be given permission, for after all, her husband had given his life for the nation.

Quite clearly, both the Mumbai Police and the Maharashtra government are trying to cover up the truth of 26/11, as has been made clear from the call logs. Maria, when contacted, said he was in London and Commissioner of Police Gafoor has “no comment.” The state government set up a two-member committee headed by former home secretary Ram Pradhan in December 2008, to probe the role of the state government and the Mumbai Police.
Commissioner of Police Hasan Gafoor presided over fatal chaos
Photo: AFP

While submitting the 100-page report to the Chief Minister, Ashok Chavan, Pradhan virtually gave a clean chit to both. He told the media, “During his visit to Mumbai after the terror attack, Union home minister P Chidambaram apologized to the citizens of the state; this itself indicated lapses from the Union government.” As for the role of the Police, Pradhan said, “Forget the Mumbai police, no police force of the country was prepared to face the warlike situation.” According to V Balachandran, the second member of the committee, “We checked logs of 5,000 calls made to the control room and the response as well as action taken by the control room staff was satisfactory.”
The report has not yet been tabled in the Assembly — where the Opposition is staging walk-outs over the ‘clean chit’ — but both Pradhan and Balachandran have made it amply clear through their responses to the media that no responsibility has been fixed.
The report will clearly not be the last word on 26/11, for Vinita Kamte says she will go to the extent of knocking on the doors of the court, after inspecting her husband’s call records. Kavita Karkare, too, has responded to the Pradhan committee report, telling the media in Mumbai that “the committee’s findings will not help fight terror. There was no co-ordination between the Intelligence departments, the Coast Guard, the Police and the state government. But the committee is not admitting this and I know they will never admit to or find out any lapses in what has happened on 26/11. Otherwise, I would have never lost my husband.”
Mr Chidambaram, hope you are reading this. The committee has used your apology to bury some essential truths. You have promised to shake up the internal security apparatus — that’s another reason why we hope you are reading this. Are we prepared for the next attack, if even, reinforcements are not sent on time?

WRITER’S EMAIL
shammy@tehelka.com

Goodbye, Prodigal son

Voters no longer have patience for political scions who do not perform
Ajit Sahi

Illustration: Anand Naorem

WRITING IN The Indian Express last week, Orissa politician Jay Panda tells us the secret behind his boss’s success. Three factors, he says, have won Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik’s three assembly elections in a row. One, a “remarkable level of sincerity,” reflected in Patnaik’s “monk-like total immersion” in his job; two, a “deep commitment to good governance,” reflected in his rigorous economic management; and three, a “clinical, dispassionate political decision-making process” that Panda claims did away with “intrigue, lobbying, drama, sabotage, subterranean tests of loyalty, unverifiable caste arithmetic, and even kickbacks”, especially in naming candidates for elections.
What Panda doesn’t list is that Naveen Patnaik is also the son of Biju Patnaik (arguably, Orissa’s most charismatic politician ever) on whose death a decade ago Naveen exited elite circles in Europe and entered Orissa’s politics as a 50-year-old novice. Three elections later, it is clear that the electorate has handed Naveen successive wins more for his work than for being his father’s son.
The voter now says, “No matter what your bloodline, you need more than a surname to get my nod.” As Omar Abdullah, now Chief Minister of Jammu & Kashmir, found in 2002, when he lost from his father’s ‘safe’ Assembly seat, and BJP leader Jaswant Singh’s son, Manvendra Singh, discovered this month.

Rahul Gandhi talks of intra-party democracy, which can sweep out dynasties such as his

The Lok Sabha success of the Congress party in Uttar Pradesh this year is credited to Rahul Gandhi’s strategic leadership. Two years ago, the same electorate in the country’s most populous state had handed Rahul a humiliating defeat in the Assembly elections. Yet, despite his spectacular success of 2009, Rahul and his mother, Sonia Gandhi, couldn’t possibly have installed him as Prime Minister, as any move to usurp a position undeserved would surely turn the mood against them. (Incredibly, Rahul now talks of bringing about intra-party democracy, which, if followed through, can only sweep out dynasties such as his.)
This is a big deal, considering how Rahul’s father, Rajiv Gandhi, a first-term MP who had never been minister, was sworn in as Prime Minister in 1984 with no other qualification — not even having won his party an election — other than that he was the son of the just assassinated PM Indira Gandhi.
Indeed, it’s debatable if Lalu Yadav could as blithely replace himself today with his homemaker wife, Rabri Devi, as Bihar’s Chief Minister, as he brazenly did to the nation’s outrage in 1997. That spouses, sons and daughters must work hard is evident in the South, where the various children of DMK president and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M Karunanidhi, from his three wives are forced to slice up the party cadres as their factions.
Remember the TDP of Andhra Pradesh? In 1996, the party rank and file revolted against their venerated chief NTR, who had founded the party 13 years earlier. His son-in-law, Chandrababu Naidu, ousted NTR when NTR began imposing on the party his second wife, who was widely seen as a gold digger.
Son or nephew, cadres and voters want leaders to ably further their vested interests. So, Shiv Sena chief Bal Thackeray’s son Uddhav hasn’t had the same traction with voters as has the old man’s renegade nephew, Raj, who is now usurping the alma mater’s nationalist slogan and votes. Finally, voters expect principled politics and development even from a dynasty, as the father-son duo of former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda and HD Kumaraswamy found out last year, after their humiliating defeat in the Karnataka Assembly elections.

The Charioteer’s Last Ride

Lal Krishna Advani
Harinder BawejaHarinder Baweja, Editor, News & Investigations
THE SHADOWS are lengthening and as the political sun sets into the dark, foreboding clouds, LK Advani, already 81, must surely be revisiting his 986-page autobiography — My Country My Life — he released only last year. He would certainly be turning the pages of a chapter called, ‘Defeat in Polls [2004], Turmoil in Party’. The chapter is candid and reveals what defeat did to the grand charioteer of Indian politics five years ago. He writes: “Why did we lose the parliamentary elections in 2004?… that question haunted my colleagues and me for a long time. The taste of bitter defeat is by no means unfamiliar to me. Indeed, for most part of my political life in the early decades, defeat was the norm and victory an exception. This, coupled with my innate nature of reacting to any situation with restraint and moderation, had prompted me to develop a rather philosophical attitude towards the outcomes of elections — neither to get depressed by defeats, nor to let victories breed boastfulness. Nevertheless, the results of the 2004 polls affected me more deeply than any other setback in the past…”
Lal Krishna AdvaniThe philosophical attitude helped him journey along for a bit, but what Advani did not know in 2004 was that he would once again be affected very “deeply”. That happened soon enough; the very next year when he visited Pakistan and made a speech praising Mohammad Ali Jinnah at his mausoleum in Karachi. His book, once again, gives an insight into what the old man of Indian politics must be currently thinking, now that he has lost the American presidential-style campaign he ran in the hope of making it to the top job. Back in 2005, his party openly bayed for his blood and he was forced to step down as the President of the BJP, a party that he had singularly guided and taken from only two seats in Parliament in 1984 to 182 in 1999. Of the Jinnah controversy, he wrote, “The turmoil began when I was still on Pakistani soil… the ensuing developments affected the cohesion within the party in an unprecedented manner and confused the minds of millions of supporters. They brought me pain, deep and unyielding. This was quite simply the most agonising moment of my political life, more distressing, indeed, than when I faced corruption charges in the ‘Hawala’ episode in 1996. At that time, my mind was at peace because my party had stood solidly behind me… In contrast, in the 2005 controversy over my Pakistan visit, several of my own party colleagues chose not to support me…”
“One day in the middle of 2005, I was told that I should step down from the presidentship of the BJP… All this was profoundly agonising for me. I was in a dilemma… My predicament often made me wonder if it wasn’t time for me to embrace the peace and comfort of a quiet family life… My state of mind was not quite unlike that of the unsure Arjuna on the battlefield. But every time the thought of escapism entered my mind, I was reminded of Lord Krishna…”
Verdict 2009 has left him in a similar predicament. Only, this time, his party colleagues are not ‘insisting’ that he stay on as the Leader of the Opposition — they have merely agreed to it so the baton can be passed on without the ugly infighting waiting just below the surface.

If LK Advani had to add a new chapter to his autobiography, how would he describe the bloodbath of Vote 2009?

So, as Advani contemplates his future and draws on a philosophical attitude to analyse why Vote 2009 went so unexpectedly wrong for him and the BJP, he may just decide to add a chapter to My Country My Life. If in 2004, the chapter was titled, ‘Defeat in Polls, Turmoil in Party’, this time, it could well be titled, ‘Drubbing in Polls, Bloodbath in Party’, and it will read as follows (many in the party would probably like him to title it ‘Why I Lost’):
“In 2004, no single factor of nationwide relevance accounted for the electoral outcome. Rather, different factors influenced the electorate in different states. Thus it was not a national verdict, but an aggregate of state verdicts. The phraseology of ‘Feel good factor’ and ‘India Shining’ hurt us. This time, the party and the Sangh Parivar vested faith in me and announced my name as the BJP and NDA’s prime ministerial candidate. I accepted the challenge with humility and, aware of the enormous task at hand, went about my work diligently, addressing meeting after public meeting in the blistering sun.
It pains me deeply to see that the BJP is down to 116 seats from 138 in 2004, and I am aware that many of my senior colleagues are now blaming me for running a presidential-style campaign and for attacking Manmohan Singh for being a weak prime minister. The fact of the matter is that for four and a half years, till he put his government on the line over the nuclear deal, Manmohan Singh was a ‘selected’ PM, a night watchman, someone who constantly went to 10 Janpath for guidance. So what was wrong if I called him weak? I am a young 82 and showed the electorate that, unlike Manmohan Singh who underwent a bypass surgery, I was fit enough to even lift weights.
I ran my campaign Obama-style but the basic reason for our defeat is the limit of our geographical existence. The BJP has no hold in the important states of West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, one of the reasons why TDP’s Chandrababu Naidu pulled out of the NDA.
I AM PAINED by the whisper campaign in the party that I am well past the sell-by date and therefore, in some ways, out of tune with the New India. A majority of our cadres and supporters are now sending us emails and letters and there is a sympathy factor that is building around me, but the fact remains that the electorate was unmistakably in favour of a stable government and they did not want a government which could be pulled around by smaller partners. So, on a closer examination, it is evident that if the Congress went up from 145 to 206, it is because they gained these seats in states like West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, which have a third front.
I have described the turmoil in the party over my Jinnah remark to be the most agonising moment of my political life. My own colleagues didn’t stand by me then, but what they failed to understand was that the remark had great political significance for the BJP. I had intended it as a transition point in the life of a party that was struggling with the loss of success, after the Ram temple campaign of the 1990s had lived out its sell-by date.
By then, it was clear to the BJP’s top leadership that Vajpayeeji could only be our mentor and guide and it was important, therefore, for both the party and me, to acquire a new image — an image in tune with changing India. I was trying to make the transition from being the hard, Hindutva face (maybe cultural nationalism is a better phrase), to someone who is seen as being softer, more amiable. Nobody in the party had any problems with the fact that Vajpayeeji was aloof by temperament or that he wrote poetry and enjoyed quiet evenings with his family. I am in a dilemma over why my colleagues are now saying that I have retreated into my family at the cost of the party; that my family and a few of my trusted aides (led by Sudheendra Kulkarni) ran a parallel campaign for me when there was also a campaign committee being run by my colleague Arun Jaitley, out of the same precincts — 28, Tughlak Crescent. The criticism now is that I listened more to Kulkarni’s team, which comprised of bloggers, techies and software professionals. There is a contradiction here, for those who are willing to see it — I had a high-tech team but the analysis is that I cost the BJP the youth voters.
The party as a whole should have done a political postmortem after we lost the assembly elections in Delhi and Rajasthan in December 2008. It is a matter of record that till the Mumbai attacks on 26/11, we were sure that we were on an upward trajectory. The economic meltdown followed soon after that and though I raised the issue of terrorism, there was a psychological shift towards stability (read: Congress), which none of us were able to spot.

I was making the transition from the hard Hindutva face to someone who is seen as being more amiable

Unlike in 2005, when I was in a dilemma and my mind was not quite unlike that of the unsure Arjuna, I was quick to take moral responsibility this time and offered to resign as soon as the results were out. But once again, the party is ridden with infighting. Murli Manohar Joshi lost no time in staking claim as the leader of the opposition and other senior leaders are attacking me for not disowning Varun Gandhi after he made his hate speech. Others still are saying that projecting Narendra Modi as primeminister- in-waiting was a costly mistake. It pains me the most to hear that I am the one who is ‘weak’. If I agreed with both Sudhanshu Mittal and Arun Jaitley when they came to me independently, complaining about each other, it was because I am a consensus man and I did it in the best interest of the party. I wanted to put a lid on an unsavoury controversy; cover up the infighting within the BJP, known to be ‘a party with a difference’.
Should I refuse to be the Opposition leader or bow to the wishes of my colleagues? I am in a dilemma. I have never been enamoured by any political post or the power that supposedly comes with it. I will pass the baton soon and continue to be a philosopher and a guide…”
shammy@tehelka.com

Eating The Cake And The Cherry

YSR has shot back to power, thanks to strategic moves and a massive PR exercise, says Ajit Sahi

Celebrations galore Supporters offer cake to YSR after the party's resounding victory in AP
Celebrations galore Supporters offer cake to YSR after the party’s resounding victory in AP

SHORTLY AFTER the second and final round of balloting for the Lok Sabha elections in his state ended on April 23, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister YS Rajasekhara Reddy travelled to New Delhi and met Congress president Sonia Gandhi. “32,” he told her, according to a senior party leader. That was the number of Lok Sabha seats he promised the party would win in his state. And then, he proceeded to the cool environs of Shimla for a short but much needed break from politics.
As it turned out last week, Reddy’s Congress won 33 of the state’s 42 constituencies — four more than in 2004 — giving Andhra Pradesh the distinction of sending the largest number of Congress MPs from any state to the 15th Lok Sabha. YSR, as he is widely known, also won 158 of the Assembly’s 294 seats, becoming the first Congress CM in three decades to get a successive second term. Incidentally, he is also the state’s only CM to ever complete a full five-year term.
What makes the win unique is that YSR, who will be 60 years old in July, successfully sidestepped a massive campaign alleging corruption, launched by his key rival, former Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and its four-party alliance. The TDP led ‘Grand Alliance’ had even presented President Pratibha Patil with documents to back claims that the chief minister and his son, YS Jagan Mohan Reddy — who, too, has been elected an MP — were involved in illegal land and corporate deals, including the Satyam scandal.

YSR’s son launched a publicity campaign through his newspaper and TV news channel

But the voters didn’t buy that. “Everyone accepts that corruption is natural,” says political commentator K Sree Lakshmamma in the central town of Guntur. “People voted for YSR’s development work of the last five years, ignoring the charges of corruption.”
“YSR was focussed on bringing in development right from the start,” adds Amar Devulapalli, chairman of the Press Academy of Andhra Pradesh in Hyderabad. “Two crore people have benefited from his schemes; the voters didn’t want to disturb his government.”
Much of YSR’s famous victory is attributed to his all-round personality, that of a crafty politician, who deeply values and rewards loyalty, and a no-nonsense administrator. YSR began on a high after becoming CM in 2004, crushing Naxal insurgents that had been entrenched in Andhra Pradesh for decades and had killed thousands of police and paramilitary, after talks with them broke down.
[box]
PARTY POSITION
ANDHRA PRADESH
LOK SABHA SEATS
CONGRESS: 33 
BJP: 0 
TRS: 2 
TDP: 6

ASSEMBLY SEATS 
CONGRESS: 158
TDP: 92
TRS:10
PRP: 18

[/box]
A medical doctor who once treated the poor for free, YSR’s welfare sops included selling rice at Rs 2 per kg, ensuring free medical treatment to BPL (below poverty line) families at ‘corporate’ hospitals, supplying free electricity to farmers, a pension scheme for widows, waiver of farm loans, and a highly subsidised housing scheme named after former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. YSR also announced a four percent reservation for backward Muslims.
WHEN FILM star Chiranjeevi launched the Praja Rajya party (PRP) last August, triggering speculation that he could challenge YSR, the chief minister immediately began a comprehensive PR campaign publicising his various welfare steps, the most notable being the massive irrigation projects worth over Rs 1 lakh crore to provide water to some ten million acres of agricultural land.
In fact, YSR chose the route of launching welfare schemes — which have totalled 26 — to not only trip up the opposition but also wean away legislators from a rival within the party: state Congress president, D Srinivas, who has lost the Assembly election. Predictably, more than 180 of the Congress candidates that fought the Assembly elections are YSR loyalists. This has ensured that his base within the party remains strong, even after some 14 ministers lost the election, as did the Assembly speaker.
After a former ally, the Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS), which wants a separate state in the Telangana region of northwest Andhra Pradesh, quit the Congress-led alliance in 2006, YSR launched several welfare schemes in Telangana. “We wanted voters to move away from the TRS,” says a Congress leader close to the chief minister. YSR’s focus on Telangana paid off as the TRS won only 10 of the 46 Assembly seats it contested there. The Congress won 50 seats.
In the coastal regions, YSR called off a 1,000-km industrial corridor when protests by villagers, who claimed that they were being forced to part with their land, threatened to balloon into a controversy. This was a smart political move, because many of these villagers belonged to the numerically significant Hindu Kapu caste. Chiranjeevi, who is a Kapu, failed to get the caste to vote en masse for the PRP. Instead, they voted for YSR.
YSR’s son Jagan, who also campaigned dedicatedly across the state, launched a huge publicity campaign through his newspaper and TV news channel, both named Sakshi. As the state’s two biggest newspapers — Andhra Jyothi and Eenadu — ran news exposing government corruption, Sakshi took on the opposition and highlighted the government schemes.
All throughout, YSR ensured that he kept party bigwigs on his side. He shrewdly obliged three ministers in Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s previous government, S Jaipal Reddy, D Purandareswari and Panabaka Lakshmi, by giving them new constituencies from where each of them won.
A smart strategist, YSR launched on a month-long election tour covering more than 20 districts in the state, working 18-hour days, until long after his key rivals — Chiranjeevi as well as Telugu film actors Junior NTR and Balakrishna of the TDP — were beginning to wind down. Indeed, YSR’s achievement is being hailed all the more because he humbled two giants — former CM Naidu whose TDP ruled the state for three terms during 1983-2004, and Chiranjeevi, whose PRP was widely expected to mount a massive challenge.
Naidu’s loss is more overwhelming because he stitched up a pre-election alliance with three former Congress allies: the TRS, the Communist Party of India-Marxist and the Communist Party of India.
That the PRP would undercut the Congress and not the TDP was the biggest miscalculation most people made, including Naidu,” says commentator BV Chalapathi Rao, a politics professor in Sri Venkateswara University in the temple town of Tirupathi. Actually, the TDP and the PRP ended up undercutting each other, thereby benefitting the Congress tremendously.
A close look at the numbers reveals that in as many as 25 Lok Sabha seats that the Congress won, the combined votes of the TDP-led four-party alliance and the PRP exceeded the Congress votes. In at least 17 of those seats, the opposition jointly polled more than a lakh votes over the winning Congress candidate. Indeed, although the final Lok Sabha tally read Congress 33 and the TDP-led alliance 8, the vote difference between the two sides was only a fraction over one percent. But a winner-takes-all system that doesn’t care how the vote is split ensured that the Congress ‘swept’ the state and YSR emerged a hero.
ajit@tehelka.com

A Tide In The Affairs Of Bihar

The state’s results show how Nitish Kumar split low-caste Hindu and Muslim votes to beat Lalu Yadav at his own game, says Ajit Sahi

Sweeping win Nitish Kumar gets a massive mandate
Sweeping win Nitish Kumar gets a massive mandate
Photo: AP

NO FORECAST could predict the sweep of the final score. Nitish Kumar’s alliance: 32; Lalu Yadav’s alliance: 4. Game, set and match, Nitish. Just how did Kumar, the mild-mannered chief minister of Bihar, never known for political cunning, make mincemeat of Lalu Yadav, Bihar’s iconic backward caste leader, one who has ruthlessly decimated many a mass leader in his 35-year career?
The answer lies as much in Kumar’s crafty politics of caste and religion as in his electoral plank of development, projected in the name of the 24-month rule of Bihar by his National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which includes the BJP.
“This election was a hurricane, just like in 1977,” an ecstatic Ram Sundar Das, a leader of the Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal-United (JD-U), told TEHELKA. His allusion is to the historic election of 32 years ago that swept former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi out of power after the infamous Emergency. Das is the surprise victor over dalit giant, Ram Vilas Paswan, in the Lok Sabha constituency of Hajipur, from where Paswan had made his Lok Sabha debut in 1977 and retained it eight out of nine times since then — losing it only last week.

This election was a hurricane, just like in 1977’, says Ram Sundar Das of the JD-U

For Das, who joined the JD-U just before last month’s elections after years in the political wilderness, the taste of victory is sweeter. He had lost the chief minister’s job to Lalu in 1990 after their party had won the most seats in Bihar’s Assembly, an event that heralded Lalu’s 15-year rule over Bihar until Nitish ended Lalu’s wife, Rabri Devi’s reign as chief minister in 2005.
The results of this year’s Lok Sabha elections in Bihar are historic in many ways. A split among Lalu’s caste brethren saw many Yadavs desert him and the candidates of his Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). (Ironically, besides Lalu, none of the three other RJD MPs elected last week are Yadavs. They are all Rajputs.) For example, in Buxar, a constituency adjoining Uttar Pradesh, Lalu and his wife failed to woo the Yadavs despite aggressive campaigning. Although their nominee won, his rival, Daddan Singh ‘Pahalwan’, got more than 1.2 lakh votes in the Yadav-dominated region.
Similarly, in many constituencies, dalits appeared to have rejected Paswan and the candidates of his Lok Janshakti Party (LJP). Obviously, Lalu and Paswan failed to “transfer” their “vote-banks” to each other as they had hoped to do when they deserted the Congress and allied with each other after the elections were called. Stunningly, Paswan lost even in Raghopur, a Yadav-dominated segment of Hajipur that Rabri Devi represents in the Bihar Assembly.

The Muslim vote has made the JD-U upbeat about the 2010 Assembly elections

On the other hand, large numbers of Muslims voted for the JD-U, overcoming their loathing for the party’s key ally, the BJP. In Bhagalpur, the Muslims even voted for the BJP’s Shahnawaz Hussain, a former central minister, giving him a win. In fact, the Muslim vote has made the JD-U upbeat about the Assembly elections due in October 2010. “This time, some Muslims did not vote for the NDA because we projected LK Advani as prime minister,” says Rajya Sabha MP and JD-U spokesman, Shivanand Tiwari. “But for the Assembly, they will vote for us with both hands.”
THAT THE Muslim vote has shifted was evident in the Phulwarisharif Assembly segment of the Pataliputra Lok Sabha constituency. The Muslims here voted for JD-U nominee Ranjan Prasad Yadav, who spectacularly defeated Lalu Yadav. Lalu lost in four out of the six Assembly segments of Pataliputra, with the Yadav votes going, quite obviously, to his rival. He scraped through to the Lok Sabha from another seat, Saran. Another strategy that paid off for Nitish Kumar was focussing on the “extremely backward castes”, or EBCs, which account for over 20 percent of Bihar’s eight crore people. “This was a social polarisation that tremendously helped the NDA,” says Patna-based political commentator Arun Kumar Ashesh. Nitish Kumar’s government has wooed the EBCs, which include some 100 poorest sub-castes, by running separate schemes for their economic uplift, including a 20- percent reservation for them in village panchayats (See TEHELKA cover story “Is This Man Going To Surprise Everyone”, May 16, 2009).
Similarly, Kumar created a separate category for 18 sub-castes of dalits, calling them “Maha Dalits”, and ran economic schemes for them specifically. So severe was the rejection of the RJD-LJP by the lower-caste Hindu and Muslim voters that the LJP was decimated in the six districts of northeast Bihar, which are collectively referred to as the “Kosi belt”, named after a river there. The Yadavs, Muslims and dalits — the traditional voters of Lalu and Paswan — dominate this belt.
[box]
CRIMINALS AND THEIR RELATIVES WHO LOST
CONGRESS
Ranjita Ranjan
Wife of Pappu Yadav Supaul

INDEPENDENT
Shanti Priya
Mother of Pappu Yadav Purnea

RJD
Heena Shahabuddin
Wife of Mohammad Shahabuddin Siwan

CONGRESS
Lovely Anand
Wife of Anand Mohan Sheohar

LJP
Veena Devi
Wife of Suraj Bhan Singh Nawada

JD-U
Munna Shukla
Vaishali

LJP
Rama Singh
Arrah

JD-U
Prabhunath Singh
Maharajganj

LJP
Zakir Khan
Araria

RJD
Taslimuddin
Kishanganj

CONGRESS 
Sadhu Yadav

West Champaran

BSP 
Anwarul Haq

Sheohar

RJD 
Jay Prakash Yadav

Banka

[/box]
There may be a grain of truth in the belief that Lalu and Paswan made a mistake by breaking away from the Congress. “In more than 20 constituencies, the total number of votes polled by the candidates of the Congress and the RJD-LJP exceeded those gained by the NDA candidate,” says political commentator Srikant in Patna. “Had the Congress and RJD-LJP stayed together as the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), it would have been tougher for the NDA.” At many places, the Congress attracted the Muslims in droves, a trend seen in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra, thus splitting them from the RJD-LJP, for whom the Muslims voted earlier.
JD-U spokesperson Tiwari, however, pooh-poohs the claims that a combined UPA could have challenged the NDA. “The people here are so angry with Lalu- Paswan,” he says, “that the Congress wouldn’t even have got the few votes it did in Bihar had it allied with them.” In some 18 seats, the NDA nominee got more votes than the combined vote share of the Congress and the RJD-LJP. According to Tiwari, Lalu lives in the “old world”, believing that caste and not development decided votes. Widely credited for social engineering during his rule from 1990 to 2005 that made the backwards castes aware of their political clout, Lalu is ironically seen as responsible for their desertion this time.
It is said that once awakened, Bihar’s backward castes came to expect a much better deal from life than Lalu could offer during his and his wife’s governments. “Poor Biharis began to go out of the state and desire the levels of development they saw there,” says Srikant. Agrees Ashesh, “Nitish’s developmentoriented politics is the logical next step of Lalu’s caste politics of the last decade.”
If there is any decimation, however, in Bihar worse than Lalu’s or Paswan’s, it is of the criminal class (see box). Says Bihar’s Home Secretary Afzal Amanullah: “I can assure you that you are not going to see these criminals or their wives and mothers in Parliament for a long time.”
ajit@tehelka.com

The Humble Tread Of History

Manmohan Singh
Harinder BawejaHarinder Baweja, Editor, News & Investigations
FOR THE five years that he remained Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh was credited with little. The only things that came his way were invectives — he is weak, he is a selected, not elected PM, he takes directions from the Madam at 10 Janpath. In short, that he is a mere puppet, a rubber stamp, a man who was selected not because he had any great vision or political acumen; but because he lacked the one singular thing: Ambition.

Manmohan Singh
Photo:  AP

Hindsight often lends itself to great wisdom and as Verdict 2009 is now being hailed as a victory of the troika, Sonia and Rahul Gandhi stand out as the two leaders who reaped great benefit for the Congress Party. The third (not necessarily in that order) stands tall as the Governance Man. As senior Congressman Kapil Sibal put it, “The Manmohan Singh government’s contribution was huge and so was his persona, his gentlemanliness and statesmanlike demeanour. In contrast, the Advanis and Karats were seen as political animals and power-hungry opportunists.”
The invectives — again on hindsight — seem to have worked. Manmohan has become the only prime minister since 1971 to win a successive victory after serving a five-year term. And suddenly, many in the Congress who have rediscovered the merits of the ‘selected’ Prime Minister are all praise for achievements they never credited him with — till the EVMs threw up the magical numbers.
The mother and son Gandhi duo had, however, invested faith in him throughout — so much so that Manmohan became the only Congressman to have ever been named as the party’s candidate in advance. On earlier occasions, it was perhaps never necessary, as the Gandhi surname always came with the prime ministerial tag firmly in place. In an amazing display of faith, just before the big battle, Sonia Gandhi covered her photograph with her hand as she held up the manifesto, and said: he is our prime ministerial candidate. And so, as contemporary history is now being written, no analysis of the Victory is possible without accolades being sung to the tune of ‘Singh is king’.

His lack of aggression was ridiculed in a rough-playing polity. But the ‘weak’ PM’s decency took him past the finishing line

“Sonia chose well in 2004 and Manmohan performed well,’’ is the common refrain at 24, Akbar Road, the party headquarter that has come alive with fresh energy. But there is also an inside story; a lesser known secret. For the record, of course, Rahul Gandhi wasted not a second when asked the rather blunt question — Is Manmohan Singh negotiable? — by a select group of 10 journalists, including this reporter, he was interacting with. The answer could have been different. After all, it was an informal session. But, a few hours later came an email in which he chose to put this question on record and the answer read, “From my side, I know — and I do know my mother’s views on this — that he is the best prime ministerial candidate. He is our candidate and we are going to stick by him. Like we did in the nuclear deal.” And now for the inside story. A very close aide of the Gandhi scion also let it be known that the young pilgrim of progress was working to a longterm agenda and was not thinking of the next five years. That was well-known. What was not, was that because of this long-term view, defeat would not have come as an irreparable blow. To quote the aide, “It will not be a big deal.”
This little secret is important to make the point that even within the Congress, no one, senior or junior, had scripted a tally of 206 for the grand old party (taunted alternatively as buddiya Congress and guddiya Congress by Narendra Modi). To the contrary, some were prepared for defeat and that’s why hindsight lends itself to great wisdom, for, the UPA emerged only a whisker away from the 272 figure. But their number shot up to 322 with help from unlikely, unconditional support by UP Chief Minister, Mayawati.
Till a little before the electoral battle began, Manmohan was not seen, by his own party, as being worthy of driving the Congress’ ad campaign. All posters and campaigns championed the trio with the slogan: aam aadmi ke badhte kadam, har kadam par bharat bulandh. It was in stark contrast to the BJP, which positioned its entire campaign around LK Advani and the slogan: mazboot neta, nirnayak sarkar (determined leader, decisive government). The irony is inescapable — the ‘weak’ prime minister is the one who has emerged true to the BJP slogan.
KAPIL SIBAL is not wrong when he says that Advani and Modi contributed to Manmohan’s victory by running a negative campaign. Interestingly, BJP insiders agree that Manmohan’s (self) image of sobriety and decency went a long way in the UPA’s victory. If the loyal urban, middle-class voter deserted the BJP and swung towards Manmohan Singh for his record of governance and the Congress’ promise of stability, it was due, again, to Advani’s negative campaign. The Congress trio shone brighter than Advani, Rajnath Singh and Varun Gandhi, who collectively revived toxic memories of Mandal and Mandir-style exclusivist, identity-based politics. Abhishek Singhvi, national spokesperson and Congress strategist, says, “Our troika is unmatched and caught the BJP unawares. The PM symbolised decency in politics, the Congress president symbolised stability and sacrifice. Rahul Gandhi symbolised youth power and the ability to experiment. Their mutual chemistry and DNA made it an unbeatable combination.”
The Slumdog Millionaire tune yielded dividends. “Jai Ho for Bharat, Jai Ho for the poor and Jai Ho for the people of India,” is how Congress general secretary, Digvijay Singh summed up the Congress’ victory. Only last year, the mild-mannered Manmohan had surprised his own colleagues by displaying nerves of steel when pushing the nuclear deal. He risked the fall of his government, and if the electorate did not punish the UPA with anti-incumbency, the credit, in large measure, must go Manmohan Singh’s way.
It would, probably, be accurate to say that the ‘invisible’ Manmohan turned out to be a factor. After his bypass surgery, his doctors wouldn’t allow him more than a dozen-odd public rallies, but Advani ensured that the spotlight stayed firmly on the invisible Manmohan. A senior Congressman says, “The prime minister is not a great orator but he didn’t need to speak. Advani did all the talking on his behalf.” And because the BJP supremo pitched the battle presidential-style, Manmohan stands taller by sheer comparison.
Even by his own colleagues, Manmohan was always seen as a half — half a man, half a politician, half a leader. Adjectives always preceded any introduction, but post-elections, the technocrat-prime minister, economist-prime minister has metamorphosed into a complete person, a complete politician, a man worthy of occupying the top seat in government.

A Congressman says, ‘The PM is not a great orator but he didn’t need to speak. Advani did it on his behalf’

Sonia Gandhi has demonstrated that she did choose well. The chemistry of the troika is evident even now. If Sonia Gandhi’s demeanour is any indication, she respects the man and understands his importance. The two made their first appearance together on May 16 — after it was clear that the mandate had gone squarely in their favour — and both displayed faith and belief in each other in different ways. She waited by the door of her house till he drove in, and walking upto him, congratulated him: “mubarak ho”. The photo-op told a story in itself. It spoke of a partnership the two had cemented. The electorate appears to have voted for this partnership. As a BJP leader remarked, “It’s worked to their advantage that while Sonia spent time on the party, Manmohan had a free hand at governance.”
A neo-confident Manmohan is already visible. Yes, Karunanidhi and Mamata Banerjee could prove difficult allies but there is also the quiet reassurance that they will not come close to playing the role Prakash Karat and his comrades did. But even while he was managing the knives that came out each time he pushed liberalisation, disinvestments or the nuke deal, his government stayed focussed on the common India, on the idea of inclusion. This is how Rahul Gandhi articulated the government’s and the party’s social agenda in his interaction with the 10 journalists: “We have two models before us. One is the private sector, India Shining and a focus on issues that don’t impact the people. The people of India have already demonstrated their silent resilience to this. The other model is growth with distribution, — job guarantee, food in schools and RTI. This is inclusion not just of the poor, but also of the middle classes. That is the idea of the aam aadmi.”
Social inclusion is only one of the many things that has seen Manmohan Singh rise in stature. Verdict 2009 proves that he is not just the Gandhis’ or the Congress’ aam aadmi.˚
shammy@tehelka.com

The Heir Less Apparent

Narendra Modi

Ajit SahiAjit Sahi, Editor-at-Large

ANGRY VOICES inside the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are beginning to growl at Narendra Modi inside his home state. The Gujarat chief minister was the BJP’s poster boy, the one the party proudly paraded across India in this year’s Lok Sabha elections. They excitedly touted him as a future prime minister, hoping to swing the Hindu votes. The poster boy now faces a looming storm. This, despite the fact that he has won 15 of Gujarat’s 26 Lok Sabha seats for his party. And when cracks appear within the Gujarat BJP, the terra firma that Modi has controlled with an iron hand, a control that’s made him the darling of Hindutva and fueled his fancy for a national political role, then it’s a red light flashing all the way. To know just how vulnerable Modi is now, one must begin with his home state. For what would Modi be nationally, if only a straw in the winds of Gujarat?

“Just how could we expect someone who had nothing to do with politics or the BJP until a month ago to win on the party ticket? Why was I dumped?” This is the anguished voice of Vallabhbhai Kathiria, a BJP old-timer from Gujarat, who was a minister in former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s government and has remained a hardcore cadre of the BJP’s ideological parent, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), for decades. Kathiria is livid because this year, Modi denied him a fifth straight shot at the Lok Sabha constituency of Rajkot, even though Kathiria had won it the last four times. Three of those victories had come even before Modi became the Hindutva phenomenon in Gujarat following the mass killings of Muslims in 2002. But Modi gave the BJP ticket from Rajkot to businessman Kiran Patel, a cinema house owner who also runs schools. Patel had never contested any election until then. And this time, he lost. A stinging loss this has been, because Rajkot was the jewel in the BJP’s Gujarat crown. The party has won the seat all six times since 1989, including Kathiria’s back-to-back wins.

“I will certainly speak up whenever the party sits down to analyse the losses,” Kathiria told TEHELKA. (Recognise that this outburst is rare in Modi’s BJP, where his opponents, which have included two former chief ministers, have been sacked for the barest murmur. Few have anyway dared to defy Modi since his most vocal critic within the BJP, his former home minister Haren Pandya, was brutally shot dead in 2003.)

anguish may or may not happen, because the Gujarat BJP still cowers in fear of Modi. But this time, it won’t be easy for Modi to silence Kathiria or other voices that may come up. Rajkot isn’t the only seat Modi has lost the party in the 2009 Lok Sabha election. In 10 other seats, Modi’s handpicked nominees are licking their wounds. At least two others among them were tainted newcomers, who promptly lost the election. This includes the steady seat of Patan in north Gujarat, where Modi forced out the BJP leader who won it four out of the last five times since 1991, including in 2004 when he wrested it back from the Congress. Instead, Modi nominated someone who was once a horseback bandit, implicated for murder and drug running, and someone who was, to boot, a Congress leader until he joined the BJP a few days before the election. He, too, lost.

The BJP’s most infallible icon feels the heat from unexpected electoral losses in Gujarat. Has the poster boy lost his charm?

So why did Modi’s hubris backfire in election 2009?

Remember that Modi engineered a smashing victory in the 2002 Gujarat assembly elections, riding on dubious popularity gained after his government seemed to back the mass killings of Muslims. But 18 months later, he faced a setback, winning only 14 of Gujarat’s 26 Lok Sabha seats in the 2004 general election. Subsequently, however, he swept the assembly election in 2007, reconfirming his stature as the unrivalled BJP leader in Gujarat. Taking advantage of his renewed unassailable status, Modi shocked everyone this year by unilaterally deciding not to re-nominate 13 of the BJP’s 14 outgoing MPs without any explanation. (The one spared was his mentor and the BJP’s prime ministerial aspirant, LK Advani.)

So brazen was Modi that he dropped even a key Advani lieutenant, Harin Pathak. Advani was forced to overrule Modi at the last minute to include Pathak, who went on to win massively from Ahmedabad East. Another MP, Rajendrasinh Rana, a sworn RSS cadre, had to rush to the RSS’ Nagpur headquarters to pressure Modi to re-nominate him from Bhavnagar, the once princely state that he has represented in the Lok Sabha unbroken four times since 1996. He eventually contested, and won.

BUT MODI retired the 11 other MPs and nominated new candidates. As many as four of these won with margins of less than 20,000 votes each on seats that averaged over six lakh votes. In the Panchamahal seat, which includes the infamous Godhra where the Sabarmati Express was set afire in February 2002 triggering the anti-Muslim carnage, the BJP candidate won by a mere 2,000 votes.

“Modi simply wants his MPs to suck up to him, so he brought in rank outsiders as candidates,” says Ahmedabad-based commentator Achyut Yagnik. Adds Ajay Umat, editor of Gujarati daily Divya Bhaskar: “This was Modi’s mistake. Both the party’s leaders and workers refused to work for these newcomers.”

Wait a minute. BJP leaders and workers in Gujarat flout Modi’s diktat? Apparently, yes. Modi met his comeuppance in many constituencies because several of his ministers reportedly worked against his nominees. Unlike in 2004, when he monitored the daily progress of BJP candidates across Gujarat, this time, he was forced to rely on his deputies because he had to travel across India. Modi flew an astonishing 300 hours to attend more than 325 rallies of the BJP in support of scores of other candidates. But his fabled charisma utterly failed to turn the vote in most places despite his headline-grabbing high-strung oratory.

From Uttar Pradesh to Tamil Nadu, from Maharashtra to Assam, Modi thundered day after day, attacking Sonia Gandhi’s Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) as opportunistic and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh as a weak and ineffectual chief executive. Modi’s delusions of grandeur have now made him the BJP’s most shaken man — after Advani, whose dream to be the oldest ever person to become PM lies shattered.

Since the BJP’s rout, Modi has cried off his scathing criticism of the UPA, which crushed the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to win a historic successive second term at the Centre. Modi’s only comment on the loss came on May 18, after he emerged from two days of hiding in his official residence: “The people’s verdict is final in a democracy. We accept it with humility.”

In state after state, Modi’s roughedged campaign failed to bring a favourable result other than in the BJPruled Karnataka, Chhattisgarh and Himachal Pradesh. In Rajasthan, the BJP was routed despite his extensive campaign. The BJP lost heavily in Uttarakhand, where it rules, despite Modi’s presence. The Congress swept the five Lok Sabha seats there. In Orissa, where the ruling Biju Janata Dal dumped the BJP as its ally on the eve of polling, Modi’s electrifying speeches could not stop his party’s defeat: the BJP lost all seven seats it had won in 2004. In Punjab, the BJP returned only one of the three seats it had won in 2004.

Modi’s ignominy in Maharashtra and Goa is worse, because he was given charge of the BJP in these two states, being the only one of the BJP’s six chief ministers asked to handle more than his state. In Maharashtra, Modi held rallies in 20 of the state’s 42 constituencies, even speaking a smattering of Marathi. But the BJP got only one of these 20 seats. Its partner Shiv Sena won two.

In many Gujarat constituencies, several of Modi’s thwarted ministers worked against his nominees

Modi failed to harness the anti-incumbency against Maharashtra’s Congress- NCP ruling alliance. The BJP won only nine seats in the state, four lower than in 2004. Worse, the Congress won four extra from 2004 to go up to 17. Perhaps Maharashtra’s BJP leader Gopinath Munde accurately assessed Modi as just hot air. Munde did not allow the Gujarat chief minister to campaign in his constituency, Beed. Munde won it by more than 1.4 lakh votes.

Indeed, many in the party and its allies did not see Modi as a wonder boy. Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan kept his distance from Modi. Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal-United swept Bihar in alliance with the BJP without Modi setting foot in that state. In fact, the BJP more than doubled its seats in Bihar, from five to 12, without any help from Modi.

So what has Modi to do now? Surprisingly, the answer is: back to his much-touted governance. “There is much unrest across Gujarat — water shortage, joblessness among diamond workers, and so on,” says commentator Achyut Yagnik. “The people are beginning to get disenchanted.”

ajit@tehelka.com

‘US Drone Attacks Are Predatory Foot Prints On Pak Soil’

Photo: AP

Do you agree with President Zardari’s recent statement that India is not a threat or an enemy?
India should certainly not be an enemy after 60 years of conflict. We need to invest in peace and a composite dialogue that can withstand a crisis like the tragedy of Mumbai.

President Zardari admitted that the Pakistani Army did not want the ISI chief to come to India after the Mumbai attack. What were the Army’s concerns?
The ISI chief was not the level needed for dispatching to India without a pre-agreed template on the investigation would proceed. To this day, Pakistan needs more admissible evidence from India to ensure a conviction, as well as from seven other countries. This is a trans-national criminal trial and cannot be wrapped up without the requisite evidence.

Obama has called Zardari. Is this diplomatic pressure?
Coercive diplomacy is not a productive way to handle a crisis.

Do you think the drone attacks by the US should stop?
The drones symbolise for the Pakistani people a predatory American footprint on their soil. No Pakistani is willing to countenance a military presence that violates the country’s sovereignty. These UAVs are very targeted in their approach and they help to keep al Qaeda operatives on the run, but the costs of such a military operation outweigh the benefits. The US must not confuse a tactical option with a full-fledged strategy. Better options can surely be found.

Assess the PPP government’s first year in power.
It has had almost impossible challenges to surmount. While it has not been perfect at managing the domestic political game, it has survived critical roadblocks while laying an infrastructure of consensus against terrorism, for rebuilding the shattered economy, for introducing the first social sector net in the country and for working out a new formula for provincial tensions. Military options are always a last resort, as they cause displacement and loss of innocent lives, but Pakistanis are rallying to the aid of their government.

‘India should certainly not be an enemy after 60 years of conflict. We need to invest in peace’

Should Nawaz Sharif rejoin the government?
Yes, Nawaz Sharif is an important political stakeholder in the democratic system, and Pakistan would be better served if his party rejoined the cabinet. These are difficult times for Pakistan. Political stability and the N League’s buy-in to the democratic system would help maintain focus on the main challenges facing us.

Why did you resign as a key member of the Cabinet and do you regret it?
I have clear views on the promises made by our party on upholding media freedoms, even if they oppose us. I’ve no regrets over any action taken in my political career or my life.

‘Everyone Is Scared Of The Naxals’

Babulal MarandiYou were tough against the Naxals but your tenure also saw a rise in Naxalism.
Arjun Munda, Madhu Koda and Shibu Soren who followed me as CM all played a negative role and diluted the fight against the Naxals. I invited the Naxals to join the mainstream but also punished those who refused the offer. Many Naxals surrendered in the Bokaro and Giridih districts. There were many encounters and Naxals were on the run then. I also started development activities. In the worst affected districts of Palamu and Chatra, the farmers came back to their farms.
So why has Naxal activity shot up?
Because the politicians are all scared of the Naxals. Everyone demands that [Parliament attack convict] Afzal Guru be hanged but no one dares to speak against the Naxals. I had arrested many Naxals under POTA. But the then Union Home Minister LK Advani called me and said, “Why are you doing this? I have to answer for it in Parliament.”

Do you think the CRPF killed Naxals or innocent villagers on April 15 in Latehar?
See, often the Naxals threaten to kill innocent villagers if they don’t do their bidding. In my own village in the Giridih district, the Naxals put pressure on villagers to not sell their timber to the neighbouring villages of Bihar. I asked the police also to threaten the villagers to sell timber in Bihar, so that one threat cancels out the other. What does one do? How else does one counter the fear created by the Naxals? But, yes, as for the April 15 incident, the government must order an inquiry, as the villagers have demanded.

Does the train hijack mean the government has lost out to the Naxals?
Jharkhand is a small state and the government has enough muscle.

Union Home Minister P Chidambaram says the Naxals are bandits bereft of ideology.
So who is ideologically driven in all these big parties? Even amongst the Naxals, few are ideologically driven and only two or three are ideologically inspired and they use people who’ve gone astray to do their bidding.

It is also alleged that the Naxals take hefty cuts from public funds.
Obviously, there is no straight way, so they take the way of “levy”.

I had arrested many Naxals under Pota. But Advani called me and said,‘why are you doing this?’

Do you see a role for the Centre in fighting the Maoist insurgency?
The Centre’s role can only be limited. They can give money. But only the state police and administration can bring a resolution.

Do you think Naxalism can be eliminated in Jharkhand?
Positively. It will take two years to eliminate it, provided the governments of Bihar and Jharkhand work in unison.

The Taliban Trail To India

THE SAVIOURS of Islam — or at least that is how the Taliban sees itself — now want Shariah to extend beyond the valley of Swat to the rest of Pakistan. No sooner had President Asif Ali Zardari consented to the Swat peace pact than an emboldened Taliban brazenly upped the ante. It will not disarm, is their latest missive.
The peace pact signified a strategic retreat by the Army, one which encouraged the ‘saviours’ to continue using religion to expand their political writ and base. Already, Sufi Mohammad — the key cleric who brokered the deal — has declared that there can be no appeal to the High Courts and the Supreme Court of Pakistan from judgements given out by Shariah courts. His argument, simply, is that Pakistan’s constitutional judicial system is ‘un-Islamic’. In other words, judicial power should be vested in the hands of qazis. Obviously, these qazis will be handpicked by Sufi Mohammad himself.

Illustration: Anand Naorem

But the problem is not only about what the Taliban are capable of. The bigger problem is that Zardari has spent the last one year consolidating himself and not his beleaguered country. The peace pact was signed after nearly four lakh Swatis fled the Valley. After the Army said it could not fight its own people, and after terrified policemen advertised in newspapers proclaiming that they had resigned from the force. Zardari, in fact, is not alarmed that the Taliban has openly expressed its expansionist intent and has not only called for Shariah to be enforced throughout Pakistan but is slowly making its way towards Islamabad.
It is clear that the Taliban has little intention of keeping its end of the bargain: to end all terror activities, lay down arms and enable the local government to regain administrative control. On the contrary, Sufi Mohammad is now asserting that the Talibs accused of murder and extortion cannot be brought to book. This clearly indicates that the Taliban are only using the peace pact to gain greater power for themselves.
This steady encroachment towards Islamabad is also causing grave concern in Delhi’s political and intelligence circles. Intelligence agencies are now reporting that batches of Talibs are making their way across the border into Kashmir. What should worry them is the fact that scores of Talibs are intimately familiar with Kashmir, having been there to fight for the Harkat-ul-Ansar and the Harkat-ul- Mujahideen in the early and mid-90s, when the insurgency was at its peak.

The Talibs are intimately familiar with Kashmir and its insurgency. I can testify to this

can testify to this. While in Kabul in September 1996, when the Taliban were flush with victory after they had conquered the capital, I met any number of Talibs in Kabul and near the Panjsher Valley who gave graphic details of their battles against Indian security forces in Kashmir. Many were particularly keen to secure the release of their commander, Nasarullah Langriyal. Langriyal travelled from Afghanistan to Kashmir where he was arrested in 1993 for an attack on the Border Security Force.
As the meeting with the Talibs comes back in vivid detail, what stands out is what they told me back then — that they had only returned to Afghanistan to support the Taliban’s final push into Kabul, which they capped with the brutal hanging of then President Najibullah.
Flush with their victory in Swat, the Taliban will no doubt turn their attention to Kashmir once again. It is an integral part of their expansionist intent.

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