The iconic Lal Chowk in Srinagar
By TEHELKA WEB DESK
Seven years after the abrogation of Article 370, official estimates indicate a significant decline in terror-related violence in Jammu and Kashmir, with incidents, fatalities, local recruitment and stone-pelting all showing a sustained downward trend over the past several years.
According to official estimates, terror incidents have fallen by nearly 83% since 2020, while stone-pelting has declined by 99%. The data also shows that 2025 recorded the lowest level of terror-related fatalities in more than two decades.
The figures indicate that terror incidents dropped from 151 in 2022 to 35 in 2025, a decline of nearly 77%. During the same period, the number of terrorists killed in operations fell from 193 to 46, while security force fatalities declined from 30 to 17.
According to the official estimate, 2025 ended with 92 terror-related fatalities—including 28 civilians, 17 security personnel and 46 terrorists—compared with 127 fatalities in 2024, 134 in 2023 and 253 in 2022.
The data notes that the relatively low fatality count in 2025 came despite the April 22 Pahalgam attack, in which 26 civilians were killed, making it the deadliest civilian terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir in recent years.
Official estimates also point to a sharp decline in local recruitment into militant ranks, with recruitment now reduced to single digits or near-zero levels in recent years, forcing militant groups to rely increasingly on infiltrators from across the border.
For 2026 (up to early August), the official figures record 12 terror incidents, resulting in two civilian deaths, two unidentified deaths, two security personnel fatalities and 11 militants killed. The monthly breakup shows three incidents each in January, February and July, two in March, one in May, and none in April, June or the first few days of August.
The data also indicates a geographical shift in militancy. While the Kashmir Valley had traditionally witnessed the bulk of terror incidents, recent attacks have largely been reported from the mountainous districts of the Jammu division, including Rajouri, Poonch, Reasi, Kathua, Doda, Kishtwar and Udhampur.
According to the official estimate, infiltration attempts along the Line of Control continue, but improved surveillance, fencing and counter-infiltration measures have reduced successful crossings. The figures further suggest that the operational kill ratio has increasingly favoured security forces in 2026 compared with previous years.
