Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin is unlikely to succeed in uniting the opposition on the delimitation issue. Despite attempts to rally opposition leaders by hosting the first Joint Action Committee (JAC) meeting on March 22, in Chennai, a united opposition may be far from becoming a reality.
Though this gathering brought together leaders from parties such as the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, Bharat Rashtra Samithi , Biju Janata Dal and Aam Aadmi Party.
However, not all opposition parties are on board—Trinamool Congress (TMC) and YSR Congress opted out of the Chennai meeting, indicating potential fissures. TMC’s absence, for instance, was linked to its focus on other issues, suggesting that delimitation may not be a universal priority.
It is also learnt that northern players like the Bahujan Samaj Party, Samajwadi Party and Rashtriya Janata Dal might quietly welcome additional seats, even if they oppose the BJP on other fronts. This misalignment of interests could splinter any coalition on the issue before it gains traction, sources said.
Moreover, the Congress, still the largest national opposition party, struggles to assert leadership over regional giants who view it with suspicion.
As the country navigates its complex political landscape, the issue of delimitation—the process of redrawing electoral constituency boundaries based on population changes—has emerged as a potential flashpoint.
Delimitation in India is not merely an administrative exercise; it is a deeply political one. The process adjusts the number of parliamentary and state assembly seats based on population data, a mechanism frozen since 1976 to encourage population control in states.
Southern states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala, which have successfully controlled population growth, fear losing seats to northern states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, where population numbers have surged. This north-south divide threatens to exacerbate regional tensions, and is unlikely to help attempts at opposition unity, sources stated.
According to government statistics, between 2001 and 2011, Uttar Pradesh had a population growth rate of about 20%, Bihar 25%, while Tamil Nadu had around 15%, Kerala 4.9%, and West Bengal 13.8%. Northern states have higher growth rates. Therefore, southern states and some eastern states might be more concerned about losing relative representation.
According to the 84th Amendment Act of 2001, the delimitation of constituencies based on the census was frozen until the first census after 2026. So, the next delimitation will be based on the census after 2026, which would probably be the 2031 census.
The opposition would need to carefully craft their narrative and find common ground amidst their diverse interests. They would also need to propose constructive alternatives, perhaps advocating for a more nuanced approach to delimitation that considers multiple factors beyond just population.
Though the delimitation issue is likely to be a significant point of debate in Indian politics in the coming years, and how it plays out will depend on the strategies of both the ruling party and the opposition.
