Page 53 - June2018

Foreign aFFairs

trusted — as expressed during the
negotiations for the controversial
deal has been upheld. Under the
prevailing circumstances, President
Rouhani’s troubles are bound to
increase manifold. The pressures
mounting on him may lead to his
removal from power sooner or
later. Thus, the US decision is a ma-
jor setback for the reformist move-
ment in Iran. It is going to suffer the
people’s wrath as the revival of US
sanctions will affect the Iranian
oil and gas exports considerably,
leading to a substantial decline in its
export revenues.
Iran, too, is going to hit India
hard and in various ways. Iran is the
third biggest oil supplier to India
after Saudi Arabia and Iraq. India’s
oil import from Iran was expected
to double to about 396,000 bpd
(barrels per day) in 2018-19 from
about 205,000 bpd in 2017-18 after
• Deal breaker growing anger against the then has also been getting substantial Iranian President Rouhani’s visit to
The US exit government. The conservatives or financial and other kinds of as- New Delhi in February.
from the Iran anti-reformists in Iran denounced sistance from Teheran for fighting India’s relations with Iran may
nuclear deal the deal but they could not stop it as on the side of the Damascus regime, suffer a setback as New Delhi
has hurt his it was the need of the hour for Iran. which remains discredited in the may find it difficult to honour its
alliance with As projected by the Rouhani eyes of its own people. commitments on the Chabahar
EU countries government, Iran’s coffers began The US and its allies in West Asia, port project. Its total commitment
to swell with oil and gas revenues perhaps, never imagined that the for Chabahar port stands at $500
rising fast and steadily. As a result nuclear deal would ultimately ena- million which can go up. Last year,
of the JCPOA, Iran had its frozen ble Iran to play more effectively the India sent a wheat consignment of
assets, estimated to be between power game in the region to harm 1.1 million tonnes to Afghanistan via
$100 billion and $150 billion, avail- the interests of the countries which Chabahar, but the US took a lenient
able to it. Besides this, the lifting or have always depended on the US view of it. The US now is unlikely
suspension of sanctions in 2015 by to help them sustain themselves. to react the same way to any such
the US, the UN and the EU led to an Surging oil revenues have enabled activity involving Iran. There are
upswing in its oil exports — from Iran to openly come to the rescue some regional blocs in which India
1million barrels to 2.5 million bar- of its friends in West Asia. Russia, is involved along with Iran like the
rels a day. Iran now was financially too, has got involved in the region Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
well placed to drastically increase militarily as an ally of Iran on the (SCO). India along with Pakistan will
its spending on armed forces and pretext of having been invited by formally be inducted into the SCO
intensify its overt and covert activi- the beleaguered regimes to silence next month, and there are reports
ties in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen their opponents. that Iran too will be provided the
and Bahrain to the chagrin of the The aftereffects of the US with- SCO membership this year with
US allies in West Asia. According to drawal from the Iranian nuclear Chinese help. Once Iran gets entry
one estimate, Iran has been spend- deal have unnerved Teheran in two into it, the SCO may be treated as an
ing between $6 billion and $15 bil- ways despite the efforts to save the anti-US regional grouping. Obvi-
lion annually to help its Syrian ally JCPOA by its signatories other than ously, India will not feel comfort-
President Bashar Al-Assad defeat or Washington. The anti-reformists, able in it, given the growing interest
eliminate his enemies in the ongo- the conservatives, in Iran are up- of Washington in New Delhi.
ing civil war there. The pro-Iranian beat as they now proclaim that their
Hezbollah militia based in Lebanon viewpoint — that the US cannot be letters@tehelka.com

Tehelka / 15 june 2018 53 www.Tehelka.com

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