Page 37 - 31MAR2019E

Bilateral relations

One will be to cut its expenditure in BJP on defensive. Pre poll surveys India, the risk of Indo-Pak conflict
non key areas (even roll back some are indicating that the ruling party reduces substantially for they might
welfare schemes), second will be to has lost ground and that Modi wave not have the political will for it. Thus
substantially increase its tax rev- though still a force, is no longer a the proxy wars that you have been
enues whose yield currently stands tsunami. The outcome that is most waging at both western and eastern
at 10 per cent of its GDP or thirdly to likely is BJP coming back with borders, might lose steam, impairing
borrow more from its Chinese lend- weakened numbers and as a coali- your relevance.
ers thus risking a debt trap. tion partner thus imperiling Modi’s As a strategic planner in Pindi
continuance as a dominant and then, you have two immediate stra-
Indian Political Hoopla assertive leader. tegic objectives to scope for — loss of
India’s general election are within budgets and loss of future. Your solu-
earshot. BJP being the incumbent Terror Calculus tion is Pulwama.
party has its track record to defend In a geopolitical scenario like this You calculate that with Uri hap-
while Congress as national challeng- if you are a deep state operative in pening and its film success still fresh
er has ample to attack on. Regional Pakistan’s Intelligence Directorate in Indian public psyche, if the at-
parties are arraying their forces in you have a situation to contend with. tack is brazen enough it will bring
their respective bastions and enter- India and Pakistan to brink of war.
ing into pre poll alliances. This conflict shifts the electoral dis-
In terms of issues for political par- Adding to Pakistan’s course from economy to national
ties to spar on, agrarian distress and security as it fans nationalism across
youth unemployment are at front financial woes, the India. Your bet is that BJP is shrewd
and centre. Congress is trying to tar US is in the process enough to convert this public mood
Modi with corruption scandal on into electoral gains. Modi’s chances
procurement of Rafale aircraft. of withdrawing its of getting re-elected are multiplied.
It is an all vs BJP scenario with troops from the The joker thus would have helped
region. This will dry batman back to his feet, for the fight
to resume.
Also, locally it ensures that your
up another billion relevance in ongoing and the war
dollar of annual you have brought to your door-
income, which US step will ensure that no politician is
able to contemplate slashing your
pays it from CSF for budgets. In fact, in this hyper tense
its help in the war standoff you can sue for a budget-
ary enhancement. Thus, both your
against terror objectives are checked. You have the
resources for it as also you have a
battle on hand.
So Mr Khan, this is what Pakistan
On one hand your budgetary allo- gets out of plotting and executing
cation might be slashed because of Pulwama attack on Indian security
the prevailing economic conditions establishment. It gets the continu-
when all non- strategic and immedi- ity for its deep state. Being a smart
ate expenditures will be pared. This political operator, as you so gra-
means you might have to shut down ciously decline the Nobel peace
sundry programs and disband many prize clamor, pivoting it to Kashmir
of the militia units that you have resolution, and as in days ahead you
nurtured over time. Apart from loss grapple with this civil military power
of these assets you run the risk of dichotomy, you will be well advised
tiger not going away once you stop to keep in mind the Shirky principle
feeding it. It turns back on you. which posits that “Institutions will
Now with likelihood of your pro- try to preserve the problem to which
tégé Afghan Taliban settling into they are the solution”.
afghan govt as partners , if a pacifist
or a coalition govt gets elected in letters@tehelka.com