Once a vocal champion of agrarian causes, Aam Aadmi Party’s confrontational stance—marked by police action, arrests, and eviction of protesting farmers—may turn out to be a strategic mistake by the political outfit.
The AAP, under the leadership of Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann, has recently found itself at odds with one of its most crucial support bases, the farmers of Punjab.
While this shift in strategy may stem from immediate governance pressures, it risks alienating a community that played a pivotal role in AAP’s rise to power in Punjab in 2022. In fact, many in the party termed the eviction of farmers as a short sighted move by AAP government.
AAP’s ascent in Punjab was intricately tied to the farmers’ movement, particularly the 2020-2021 protests against the Centre’s contentious farm laws. During that period, AAP positioned itself as a staunch ally of the agrarian community, with leaders like Arvind Kejriwal offering logistical support to protesters at Delhi’s borders and criticizing the central government’s policies.
This solidarity resonated with Punjab’s rural electorate, where agriculture remains the backbone of the economy and identity. The party’s promise of a legal guarantee for Minimum Support Price (MSP), compensation for flood-affected farmers, and a comprehensive agriculture policy further cemented its pro-farmer image, helping it secure a landslide victory in the 2022 Punjab Assembly elections.
However, now the narrative seems to have shifted dramatically. The Mann-led government has faced mounting farmer unrest over unfulfilled promises, leading to protests. Instead of dialogue, the AAP government responded with preemptive arrests, police blockades, and eviction of protestors. This pivot from ally to adversary has left many questioning AAP’s long-term strategy.
Punjab’s farmers are not just an economic force; they are a political powerhouse. With small and marginal farmers constituting over 86% of the state’s agrarian workforce, their votes can sway elections. AAP’s 2022 triumph was built on rural support, particularly from regions like Doaba and Malwa, where farmer discontent with previous governments—Congress and Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD)—opened the door for AAP’s populist appeal. By cracking down on protests and failing to deliver on key promises like MSP for all crops, AAP risks eroding this trust.
The recent standoffs, including the police action have provided ammunition to opposition parties. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress have seized the opportunity to paint AAP as “anti-farmer,” a label that could stick in a state where agrarian identity runs deep.
However, with the 2027 Punjab Assembly elections looming, the party cannot afford to antagonize a group that has historically dictated electoral outcomes. The farmers’ protests of 2020-2021 not only forced the Centre to repeal the farm laws but also reshaped Punjab’s political landscape, weakening SAD and Congress while elevating AAP. Repeating that cycle of discontent could embolden rivals, particularly Congress, which has expressed open sympathy for the farmers, and the BJP, which is keen to expand its footprint in Punjab.
The timing of AAP’s farmer crackdown is particularly precarious given its recent loss in the Delhi assembly elections. Punjab remains AAP’s only major state in power, making it a critical battleground for the party’s survival and expansion. Alienating farmers could jeopardize its 2027 prospects.
By alienating a core constituency, misreading the political mood, and contradicting its own history, AAP is gambling with its future in a state it cannot afford to lose. Farmers have proven their ability to shape Punjab’s politics, and their memory of betrayal is long. If AAP hopes to retain power beyond 2027, it must pivot back to dialogue and deliverables, lest this misstep become a defining mistake in its Punjab story.
