After having weathered wars and decades of hostility, the Indus Waters Treaty has finally been suspended by India. Triggered by Pahalgam terror attack, the move marks a significant escalation with wide-reaching diplomatic and economic consequences. A report by Aayush Goel
Having survived four wars, decades of tension between the two nations, and undeterred cross-border terrorism, the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) has been suspended for the first time by India. The decision, first mulled over after the Pulwama attack, has been implemented after the Pahalgam terrorist attack, which claimed 26 lives, the majority being tourists. With Pakistan-based terror outfit claiming responsibility, India has finally taken its stand on ‘blood and water don’t flow together’. “The Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 will be in abeyance with immediate effect, until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism,” Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri announced while sharing other diplomatic actions against Pakistan.
In its letter to Pakistan on Thursday, India invoked the provision for modification under Article XII (3). “These communications cited fundamental changes in the circumstances that have taken place since the Treaty was executed that require a reassessment of obligations under the various Articles of the Treaty read with its Annexures,” the letter by the Jal Shakti Ministry stated. According to the letter, the “changes” include “significantly altered population demographics”, “the need to accelerate the development of clean energy”, and Pakistan not acting in “good faith”. “The obligation to honour a treaty in good faith is fundamental to a treaty. However, what we have seen instead is sustained cross-border terrorism by Pakistan,” the letter said. Taking a strong stance, India has, in addition to the suspension of the treaty, announced closure of the Attari border post, cancellation of visas, and the expulsion of several Pakistani personnel from India. It is, however, the suspension of the water treaty that has rattled not just Pakistan but the entire world, is expected to have the most far-reaching ramifications.
What is the Indus Water Treaty?
The origins of the IWT are traced to the Partition of India in August 1947, which marked the end of British colonial rule and the emergence of India and Pakistan as two sovereign nations. At that time, the combined population of both nations stood at over 1.6 billion. A large part of Northern India and almost the entire Pakistan are critically dependent on the waters of the rivers flowing from the Himalayas. Given their shared reliance on these Indus River systems for agriculture and irrigation, the treaty became a necessity. It took decades of negotiations for both nations simmering in cross-border tensions to arrive at an agreement mediated by the World Bank. Finally, in September 1960, former Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and former Pakistani President Ayub Khan signed the treaty. The pact rules the division of the water of the Indus River and its tributaries equitably between the two countries. According to the treaty, India gets about 30% of the total water carried by the Indus River System located in India, while Pakistan gets the remaining 70%. The treaty gives India control over the waters of the three “Eastern Rivers” the Beas, Ravi, and Sutlej with a mean annual flow of 41 billion m3 while control over the waters of the three “Western Rivers” Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum located in India with a mean annual flow of 99 billion m³ to Pakistan. The treaty also permits both countries to use the other’s rivers for certain purposes, such as small hydroelectric projects that require little or no water storage. Other than the obvious reasons, a key impact of the suspension is that India will not have to intimate Pakistan while carrying out any work on the three rivers, leaving no scope for objection, feedback, or inclusion.
Economic impact on Pakistan?
The IWT cannot be altered unilaterally. Article XII stipulates that its provisions “may from time to time be modified by a duly ratified treaty concluded for that purpose between the two Governments.” It further clarifies that the treaty can only be terminated through a “duly ratified treaty” agreed upon by both states. India, however, with the suspension, will cease sharing any hydrological data like snow melt, quantity of discharge water flow, etc, with Pakistan. India will now be free to decide on the usage of water of western rivers and may construct new hydropower projects, dams etc, which is expected to hamper water supply to Pakistan. Though there is no major impact currently owing to lack of infrastructure to control the water flow from India, Pakistan is under pressure. More than 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture and around a third of its hydropower generation depend on the waters of the Indus basin. It is vital for agriculture and irrigation in the Pakistani provinces of Punjab and Sindh. And this region produces 85 per cent of the country’s food. Pakistan is an agrarian economy; the agricultural sector contributes nearly 25% to Pakistan’s coffers and is the only source of income for 70% of its rural population.
With Pakistan already facing groundwater depletion and cities like Karachi relying on private water tankers, any interruption to water flow from the Indus rivers will affect crop yields, leading to food shortages and possible economic instability. Also, many of Pakistan’s dams, including the Tarbela and Mangla dams, depend on the Indus River’s flow for hydroelectric power generation. Reduced water flow could exacerbate Pakistan’s existing energy crisis, leading to power shortages and hindering economic activity. The disruption could have a cascading effect on its economy.
But no visible immediate impact!
The silver lining for Pakistan is that there is no immediate visible impact of the suspension as India lacks the massive storage infrastructure and extensive canal systems that is needed to withhold tens of billions of cubic metres of water from the western rivers. At most, India can cut water flows by 5-10%. The treaty restricts India from building reservoir dams on the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. India could, however, develop hydroelectric “run-of-the-river” projects. This means that the projects cannot alter the flow of water or obstruct it. Suspending the treaty means India may not adhere to these restrictions and begin constructing reservoir dams to plug the water flow. However, building large reservoirs on these rivers will take years, if not a decade. It would require extensive surveys and funding for such a thing to fructify, considering the ecological impact. Thus, at this point, India’s move is more a pressure tactic on Pakistan to rein in terror groups and stop infiltration.
“The infrastructure India possesses does not have the capacity for large-scale storage. While water flow cannot be altered immediately, it’s the uncertainty that will severely affect Pakistan’s predominantly agrarian economy. If India begins regulating the flow using its existing infrastructure, Pakistan could experience significant disruptions, particularly during the upcoming summer season when water availability is already at its lowest,” says Dr. Happymon Jacob, associate professor at the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University.
Every drop of these rivers is ourst: Pak
India’s act of suspension of the treaty has triggered extreme reactions in Pakistan. Rattled by India’s suspension of the treaty, Pakistan’s power minister, Sardar Awais Leghari, said that the water was rightfully theirs and that India was hastily choosing water warfare. “India’s reckless suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty is an act of water warfare; a cowardly, illegal move. Every drop is ours by right, and we will defend it with full force legally, politically, and globally,” he said in a statement issued to Pakistani Media. His other counterparts, like Pakistani Minister Hanif Abbasi, are issuing harsh warnings in the wake of the suspension. Abbasi in a public statement issued to local media said that any attempt to block water would be interpreted as a declaration of war, potentially leading to nuclear conflict.” Islamabad’s stockpile Ghori, Shaheen, and Ghaznavi missiles along with 130 nuclear warheads has been kept “only for India.” If India stops the water supply to Pakistan by suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, it should prepare for a war, as Islamabad is ready to strike if provoked,” said Abbasi.
Similarly, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) has aggressively responded to escalating tensions by declaring,
“Either water will flow into Sindh, or the blood of Indians will”. Such extreme statements betray the deep anxiety within Pakistan over India’s latest strategic move.
