By Tehelka Web Desk
Jammu and Kashmir’s climate-sensitive mountainous regions have witnessed pronounced warming over the past four decades, with some high-altitude locations such as Pahalgam and Gulmarg warming by nearly 1°C in the last 20 years, according to a new study published in Scientific Reports.
The study, conducted by researchers from the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kharagpur, analysed ground-based observations and reanalysis data spanning 1980 to 2024 and found that warming has been uneven across the Union Territory, with mid- and high-altitude areas heating up faster than lower-elevation regions.
“The region shows a clear but spatially heterogeneous warming,” the researchers wrote. They found that the strongest rise in annual mean temperature occurred at mid-elevation stations such as Bhaderwah, where temperatures increased by about 0.3°C per decade, while lower-elevation areas such as Jammu showed “weak or insignificant trends.”
The study found that night-time temperatures are rising more rapidly than daytime temperatures. “Minimum temperature (Tmin) shows the most rapid acceleration, by +0.1 to 0.5°C/dec at several mid-to-high elevation regions, whereas daytime maximum temperature (Tmax) trends remain modest.”
Researchers said these differences point to elevation-dependent warming (EDW), a phenomenon in which higher-altitude regions warm faster than lower elevations.
“These spatial and seasonal contrasts, along with enhanced warming at higher altitudes in specific seasons… indicate the presence of elevation-dependent warming (EDW) in these mountainous regions,” the study said.
The warming was especially pronounced during the pre-monsoon season, when minimum temperatures increased by as much as 0.6°C per decade in some higher-altitude locations. Overall, annual mean temperature increased with altitude at a rate of 0.18°C per kilometre per decade, while winter daytime maximum temperatures showed the strongest altitude dependence.
The researchers also investigated what is driving these changes. According to the study, “wintertime altitude-dependent temperature trends are statistically associated with albedo-related surface processes,” while increases in minimum temperatures were “more closely associated with atmospheric moisture and longwave radiative conditions.”
The findings underline the vulnerability of the Himalayan region to climate change.
“Overall, the region has warmed by up to nearly 1°C in last two decades at several high-altitude locations (e.g., Pahalgam and Gulmarg), highlighting the sensitivity of the Himalayan environment to ongoing climate change with severe implications for high-altitude hydrology, cryosphere stability, and regional climate resilience,” the study concluded.
The researchers said the findings provide fresh evidence that climate change is reshaping temperature patterns across Jammu and Kashmir, with potentially far-reaching consequences for glaciers, snow cover, water resources and ecosystems that depend on the Himalayan cryosphere.
