{"id":306502,"date":"2018-12-03T06:44:33","date_gmt":"2018-12-03T06:44:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/tehelka.com\/?p=306502"},"modified":"2018-12-03T06:48:09","modified_gmt":"2018-12-03T06:48:09","slug":"battle-of-rajasthan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tehelka.com\/battle-of-rajasthan\/","title":{"rendered":"“Battle of Rajasthan”"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>With\u00a0the polling day\u00a0of December 7 for electing the 200-member Rajasthan assembly in\u00a0Rajasthan drawing\u00a0close,\u00a0both the BJP and the Congress\u00a0are not only engaged in hectic flurry of electoral campaigning, but\u00a0are again raking up issues surrounding religion and cow in a bid to appeal voters.\u00a0The BJP camp is humming with\u00a0slogan \u201cEk hi naara ek hi naam: Jai Shri Ram, Jai Shri Ram\u201d (One slogan, one name…)\u00a0whereas the Congress has coined the parallel slogan of\u00a0\u201cNa jaat, na paat, is baar haath\u201d (No caste, no creed, only the hand).\u00a0Rajasthan is known for having set the precedent of change of government every five years as is discernible from the electoral history of the state for the past three decades.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

BJP\u2019s Stakes\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Stakes for the BJP in Rajasthan are very high, especially in view of the fact that it is seeking the mandate once again in the wake of anti-incumbency wave. Undoubtedly, the\u00a0BJP’s catchphrase\u00a0\u2013 \u201cBhajapa Phir se\u201d\u00a0(BJP once again) \u2013 has kept the state unit of the party\u00a0sanguine of its return; nevertheless, the emerging equations on the ground projects\u00a0a different scenario in which it will be difficult for the party to retain power. \u00a0In its bid to harness caste and Hindutva factors in its favour, the BJP leadership is depending on its star campaigners like PM Modi,\u00a0Yogi Adityanath, Rajnath Singh and Amit Shah\u00a0to tap their core constituencies, along with\u00a0chief minister Vasundhara\u00a0Raje focusing\u00a0her energies on Jats.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The tone and tenor of the campaign by BJP\u2019s star campaigners is characterized by the overemphasis on PM Modi\u2019s achievements, denunciation of Congress and reluctance to seek votes in the name of chief minister, a factor that speaks of BJP\u2019s apprehensions about anti-incumbency.\u00a0Simmering discontent among various segments of the society \u2013 farmers, medium and small traders, Rajputs, students etc., against the incumbent chief\u00a0minister is\u00a0worrisome for the BJP. The dissenting voices seeking a change in state leadership are echoing far and wide and one critic has opined: \u201cMost voters are not as angry at the BJP as they are at her\u201d (Vasundhra Raje).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Congress Stratagem<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Victory for Congress in Rajasthan is very crucial for Congress in its run for 2019 Lok Sabha. Anti-incumbency wave against the BJP is Congress\u2019s best bet despite its own house in disorder from organizational perspective. If winds of change blowing over the political landscape of Rajasthan become favourable to the Congress, then certainly then it would\u00a0end\u00a0party\u2019s prolonged political drought. \u00a0Congress campaigns are echoing slogans like\u00a0‘abki baar, Rajasthan mein Congress sarkar’\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

During his recent visit to various constituencies of Rajasthan this author could see simmering anger and discontent, especially in the rural areas, among various sections against the BJP government, which if properly harnessed could be turned into support for the Congress. Some experts opine that the Congress doesn\u2019t even seem to be trying to set the agenda on the groundand party\u2019s state leadership is hoping on anti-incumbency wave to catapult\u00a0it\u00a0into power.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Manifestoes<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Lofty promises to lure the electorate of Rajasthan are envisaged in the respective manifestoes released by the BJP and\u00a0Congress.\u00a0Congress\u2019s\u00a0manifesto\u00a0is\u00a0titled\u00a0as\u00a0\u2018Jan Ghoshna Patra\u201d, and the BJP\u2019s\u00a0manifesto\u00a0is\u00a0entitled as\u00a0Rajasthan Gaurav Sankalp.\u2019 In return of Congress terming\u00a0BJP\u2019s\u00a0manifesto,\u00a0a \u2018chhalava-patra\u2019 (document of deceit), the BJP has accused the Congress of \u201ccopying\u201d its manifesto.\u00a0In their endeavor to capitalize on agrarian crisis, both the parties have incorporated key demands of farmers, including waiving of debt, minimum support price,\u00a0concessions\u00a0on electricity and water and launching of rural welfare schemes etc.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Allusions to focus on cows, construction of\u00a0gaushalas\u00a0(cow-sheds) and\u00a0gauraksha\u00a0(cow protection) find place in manifestoes of both the parties along with Congress promise of camel protection as well. Promotion of Sanskrit language and Vedic education has been emphasized\u00a0by\u00a0both parties with slight variations in the modus operandi.\u00a0Providing free education for girls and restarting two universities started earlier by Congress and stalled by present dispensation constitute the hallmark of Congress manifesto. Constituting a regulatory authority\u00a0for private education institutes and coaching centres\u00a0has been promised by both the parties.<\/span><\/p>\n

Issues like promise for reservation for tribal communities,\u00a0specific measures for women, BJP\u2019s promise of universal health insurance and Congress\u00a0promise\u00a0of giving a legal identity to right to health, absorption of contractual workers in the government sector, creating jobs for the youth and stipend to unemployed youth, Congress promise of simplifying GST in the State and BJP\u2019s promise of simplifying regulation of mining industry etc., find echo in the respective manifestoes of both the parties. While the\u00a0Congress\u00a0manifesto promises removal of the minimum education\u00a0eligibility\u00a0criteria to\u00a0contest in the Panchayati Raj elections, the BJP manifesto, in\u00a0order to\u00a0please the Nath sect in Rajasthan, promises to\u00a0build a national memorial for him and restore monasteries of the Nath sect.<\/span><\/p>\n

Opinion Polls<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Pre-poll surveys\u00a0on Rajasthan\u00a0have articulated mixed predictions, with many opinion polls showing the BJP government on its way out.\u00a0A Times Now-\u00a0CNX\u00a0survey\u00a0has\u00a0shown that\u00a0the Congress\u00a0is likely to\u00a0storm to power in Rajasthan with 110 to 120 seats in the 200-member Legislative Assembly, while the BJP, on the other hand, is predicted to wind up getting between 70-80 seats.\u00a0The survey\u00a0further reveals that\u00a0the Congress could bag 43.5% vote share in the state, while the BJP could manage only 40.37%. The BSP is expected to win between one to three seats – repeating its 2013 performance.<\/span><\/p>\n

Another survey conducted recently by the ABP News-CSDS has\u00a0predicted\u00a0a clear lead\u00a0for\u00a0Congress in the\u00a0ensuing\u00a0polls wherein the Congress is predicted to win\u00a0110 seats while the\u00a0BJP\u00a0is\u00a0expected to bag 84 seats.\u00a0A\u00a0poll of polls, based on several other surveys conducted for Rajasthan ahead of the December 7\u00a0elections,\u00a0shows\u00a0the Congress could come to power with 119 seats while the BJP may finish second with 73.\u00a0The authenticity of these pre-poll surveys will be tested\u00a0on\u00a0December\u00a011 when the votes will be taken up for counting.<\/span><\/p>\n

Way Ahead<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

The assembly elections in Rajasthan\u00a0are\u00a0not an easy cakewalk either for the BJP of Congress. Despite their best foot forward, both the BJP and Congress are faced with the dilemma of rebel candidates,\u00a0who have been denied ticket in one party have joined the rival party. The Jats,\u00a0disenchanted with the BJP have either switched their loyalty to\u00a0Beniwal\u2019s party or to the Congress and the Rajputs disenchanted with the Congress\u00a0have\u00a0reportedly gone\u00a0back to the BJP.\u00a0The resultant outcome is\u00a0that both\u00a0parties are wary of the\u00a0electoral outcome. According to some analysts, caste\u00a0is going to be the most decisive factor in the ongoing polls in\u00a0Rajasthan they\u00a0further opine that despite\u00a0ideology, poll philosophy or chemistry\u00a0playing crucial role in the polls, the only factor that\u2019s going to decide the outcome\u00a0in Rajasthan this time is caste\u00a0arithmetic.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Bulk of\u00a0Rajasthan\u2019s\u00a0population lives in rural areas\u00a0and only\u00a0a quarter of Rajasthan\u2019s households live in urban areas, withfarmers constituting\u00a0a strong and influential block of voters in the state.\u00a0Simmering farm discontent in rural Rajasthan is emerging as the biggest challenge for the BJP in its attempt to retain power in the desert state.\u00a0There is seemingly a\u00a0general consensus\u00a0among many experts that\u00a0the BJP may retain the urban vote, while the Congress will take the rural.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Outcome of this election is significant for both the BJP and Congress, for BJP it is a prestige issue to retain the state and\u00a0for\u00a0Congress it\u00a0is\u00a0\u201cthe most important election\u201d\u00a0for\u00a0its\u00a0revival,\u00a0a semi-final, before 2019.<\/span><\/p>\n

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With\u00a0the polling day\u00a0of December 7 for electing the 200-member Rajasthan assembly in\u00a0Rajasthan drawing\u00a0close,\u00a0both the BJP and the Congress\u00a0are not only engaged in hectic flurry of electoral campaigning, but\u00a0are again raking up issues surrounding religion and cow in a bid to appeal voters.\u00a0The BJP camp is humming with\u00a0slogan \u201cEk hi naara ek hi naam: Jai Shri […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":27,"featured_media":303026,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[2009,2560,2014],"tags":[453,236,1478,5405],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/tehelka.com\/rest-api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/306502"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/tehelka.com\/rest-api\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/tehelka.com\/rest-api\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tehelka.com\/rest-api\/wp\/v2\/users\/27"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tehelka.com\/rest-api\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=306502"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/tehelka.com\/rest-api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/306502\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":306507,"href":"https:\/\/tehelka.com\/rest-api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/306502\/revisions\/306507"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tehelka.com\/rest-api\/wp\/v2\/media\/303026"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/tehelka.com\/rest-api\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=306502"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tehelka.com\/rest-api\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=306502"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tehelka.com\/rest-api\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=306502"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}