By Riyaz Wani
Kashmir’s glaciers are retreating at an alarming pace, with new scientific studies warning that rising temperatures, changing snowfall patterns and increasing pollution are rapidly transforming the Valley’s upper Himalayan landscape and threatening long-term water security across the region.
A series of recent studies by researchers from the University of Kashmir and other scientific institutions have revealed that glaciers across Kashmir Himalaya have undergone severe shrinkage over the past several thousand years, with the pace of melting accelerating sharply in recent decades.
Among the most striking findings is the rapid collapse of the Thajwas Glacier near Sonamarg, which researchers describe as a remnant of a much larger glacier system that once dominated the valley. A study published in the journal Geoscience Frontiers found that the glacier has lost nearly 86 percent of its area and close to 88 percent of its ice volume since the Neoglaciation period around 4,200 years ago.
The study reconstructed the glacier’s evolution over nearly 21,000 years using cosmogenic Beryllium-10 exposure dating and geomorphological mapping, providing one of the most detailed glacial chronologies from the Kashmir Himalaya.
Researchers identified four major glacial phases linked to major climatic events, including the global Last Glacial Maximum, the Younger Dryas cold phase, the Early Holocene and the Neoglaciation period.
According to the findings, the Thajwas Glacier once covered nearly 54 square kilometres during the Last Glacial Maximum around 20,770 years ago. Today, it has shrunk to roughly 2.76 square kilometres.
Scientists found that the glacier’s ice volume declined from around 2.73 cubic kilometres during the Ice Age to just 0.09 cubic kilometres at present. The glacier also experienced a sharp upward shift in its Equilibrium Line Altitude, the elevation where snowfall accumulation equals melting, reflecting sustained warming in the Himalayan region.
The studies estimate that temperatures in the Thajwas Valley during the Ice Age were nearly 5.7 degrees Celsius lower than present-day conditions, allowing the glacier to extend almost 10 kilometres farther down the valley than it does today.
Researchers say the glacier’s retreat is part of a much larger transformation unfolding across the Kashmir Himalaya.
Another major assessment by researchers from Kashmir University based on satellite imagery, GPS surveys and geomorphological mapping between 1980 and 2018 examined 147 glaciers across Kashmir and found that nearly 30 square kilometres of glacier area disappeared during the 38-year period. Six glaciers vanished completely, while several others fragmented into unstable ice bodies.
Scientists observed that the upper Himalayan landscape is gradually shifting from a snow-dominated terrain into an increasingly exposed rocky environment. As glaciers retreat uphill, barren slopes, loose sediments, moraine-dammed lakes and braided meltwater streams are emerging across areas once permanently covered by snow and ice.
The most severe glacier retreat occurred between 1992 and 2013, a period associated with rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns across the Valley.
Researchers found that winter precipitation in many high-altitude regions is increasingly falling as rain instead of snow, weakening the natural replenishment cycle that historically sustained glaciers.
Glaciers located at lower elevations and on south-facing slopes were found to be retreating faster because of greater exposure to solar radiation. Smaller glaciers proved particularly vulnerable, with many losing more than 40 percent of their area during the study period.
The Lidder and Sindh basins, which contain most of Kashmir’s surviving glaciers, recorded some of the highest rates of glacier loss.
Scientists have also identified black carbon pollution, commonly known as soot, as a major factor accelerating glacier melt in Kashmir.
A separate study examining nine glaciers between 1992 and 2020 found that black carbon particles settling on glacier surfaces are reducing snow reflectivity and increasing heat absorption, causing glaciers to melt faster.
The study recorded black carbon concentrations ranging from 500 to 1,364 nanograms per cubic metre around glacier sites, among the highest levels documented across the Himalayan and Tibetan Plateau regions.
Researchers found that polluted air reaches Kashmir’s glaciers through atmospheric transport driven largely by westerly winds, carrying emissions from diesel vehicles, industrial activity, biomass burning and forest fires.
The study also revealed that debris-covered glaciers in Kashmir are melting faster than cleaner glaciers. Scientists believe uneven debris layers trap and absorb heat, intensifying glacier recession instead of insulating the ice.
Experts warn that the consequences of rapid glacier retreat could extend far beyond the mountains.
Kashmir’s glaciers serve as critical freshwater reservoirs feeding rivers, streams, springs and wetlands that support agriculture, drinking water supplies and hydropower generation across the region.
Scientists caution that accelerated glacier melting may initially increase flood risks and glacial lake outburst events, but shrinking ice reserves could eventually weaken river flows and reduce long-term water availability.
Researchers say the findings underline the urgent need for sustained glacier monitoring, pollution control measures and climate adaptation strategies as the Himalaya, often described as the “Third Pole” because of its vast ice reserves, faces mounting pressure from global warming and environmental degradation.
