Three months in office, J&K CM Omar Abdullah is seen to yielding to the BJP-led centre despite coming to power on an anti-BJP plank. While Omar’s softened stance, evident during PM Modi’s recent visit to the valley, helps governance but risks alienating his base. A report by Riyaz Wani
Three months into leading the J&K’s first elected government following a six years long central rule, Chief Minister Omar Abdullah is struggling to navigate the constraints of his role. Elected on a strong anti-BJP platform and as a committed ally of the INDIA bloc’s secular alliance, Omar now finds himself with no immediate escape from the BJP’s control—both within J&K and at the national level. This explains a conspicuous modulation of his political stance since coming to power: he has maintained a low-key political profile, distanced himself from the INDIA bloc and reached out to the BJP. So, when the prime minister visited J&K on January 13 to inaugurate the strategically significant Z-Morh tunnel, Omar not only visited the spot a day ahead to take stock of the preparations, he also effusively praised him in his speech during the inauguration.
“People participated overwhelmingly in the polls, and there was no rigging or complaints of election malpractices. Not a single polling station required re-polling. The credit for this goes to you, your associates, and the Election Commission,” Omar said at the speech. He also thanked the PM for coming to inaugurate the Z-Morh tunnel, despite the harsh weather. “The weather favored you as not a single cloud is in the sky, and the sun is shining brightly. There is no lack of warmth in our hearts,” he added.
The contrast between Omar’s reception of PM Modi and that by the late chief minister Mufti Muhammad Sayeed’s during the PM’s 2015 visit couldn’t have been starker. Mufti then sought an Indo-Pak dialogue and resurrection of Vajpayee-Musharraf peace process, and Omar sought restoration of statehood to the now union territory of Jammu and Kashmir. Mufti’s tone was assertive and Omar’s conciliatory. But there’s hardly any scope for value judgement here. Between the context of the two speeches, their tone and tenor, there is a world of difference: Mufti was the chief minister of a constitutionally empowered state of Jammu and Kashmir including Ladakh and Omar that of a union territory where his elected government is subservient to Lieutenant Governor. And there’s little that he can do without the cooperation of the central government and the LG.
What’s more, the BJP is the largest opposition party in the Assembly with 29 seats. Backed by its government at the centre, the party will always be looking for an opening to form the government. Only thing that prevented the saffron party from forming the government in the union territory was that the voters in Kashmir largely rallied around the National Conference that got 42 seats. The NC-Congress-CPI(M) have 49 seats between them. And in the event of any unlikely defection in the NC in future, the BJP could very well be forming J&K’s first Jammu-dominated elected government, led in all likelihood by a Hindu chief minister. However, even otherwise, the BJP-led central government is a de-facto ruler in the existing hybrid arrangement with power being shared between the Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha and the NC-Congress alliance – albeit unequally in favour of the former. The arrangement suits the BJP and it may prefer to stick with it for an indefinite time. This reality is likely to keep the NC-led government’s urge to assert itself in check, lest it antagonize the centre.
This has drastically narrowed the maneuvering space of the NC government. And it is unlikely to change as long as the BJP remains a dominant force at the centre, and which looks certain until an indefinite period. In fact, the chances are that the party may become even stronger in near future. Assembly elections in New Delhi and Bihar will be keenly watched. The BJP will try to win New Delhi and retain the Nitish-led government in Bihar. Both prospects look very much possible, more so after the saffron party’s stunning win in Maharashtra. Over the past decade, the BJP has recurrently sneaked from behind to snatch electoral victories from the jaws of defeat, like in Haryana and Maharashtra. So much so, that this has made it challenging to take the party’s setbacks at their face value.
On the contrary, the opposition INDIA Bloc which got some wind back in its sails following a surprising turnaround in the Lok Sabha polls has again lost its momentum. Maharashtra loss has already caused rumblings within the bloc. Another electoral loss, and the alliance could come apart at the seams. This puts the elected J&K government apparently allied to the opposition alliance on a sticky wicket. It is not a part of the ruling BJP but is reliant on it for everything. And the BJP, which is a condescending benefactor here, will hardly make things easier except on its terms. The saffron party would also be loathe to alter this favourable arrangement by granting an early statehood to J&K. More so, when there also are far bigger reasons to withhold it. The centre, it is believed, is unlikely to let go of control on the security agencies and the allied security related matters, lest it unravel the gains made in recent years. The recent rise in militancy-related violence is likely to further dissuade the central government from handing over complete control over the region to an elected government. Should this happen, a future governor will continue to wield a strong say in the affairs of J&K.
There’s thus little hope that statehood will be restored anytime soon. Although Omar did ask for its reinstatement at the Z-Morh event, and the prime minister did assure him of his promise to do so, little is expected to change. For example, the prime minister in his speech once again stayed short of a timeline, nor did he specifically mention statehood.
That said, it will be politically unsustainable for Omar to continue to play the role of a conciliatory and subservient chief minister. Already his praise for the PM has lent some ammunition to his opponents in the Valley, who have termed it an appeasement of the BJP that goes contrary to the spirit of his anti-Hindutva mandate.
“Difference between a shortsighted politician and a true statesman. In 2003 then BJP PM Vajpayee during his visit to Srinagar showed great faith in Mufti sahab’s vision of peace with dignity even though PDP had a mere 16 MLAs. Today our CM despite 50 MLAs did everything to appease & normalise Delhi’s unilateral actions in August 2019 that cleaved & robbed J&K of its special status,” former J&K Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti posted on X, formerly twitter, about the Omar’s warm reception of Modi.
On the other hand, while people in the Valley have generally been understanding of the CM’s predicament, his Z-Morh speech was seen as a little more yielding than needed. It makes Omar’s job challenging, requiring him to perform a delicate balancing act – appeasing the Centre to ensure his government’s survival while addressing the sentiments of his core constituency still reeling from the loss of Article 370 and downgrading of the once empowered state.
