China has warned that a newly formed lake higher upstream at the Tibet-Nepal border is at risk of breaching, which could worsen the ongoing flood-related crisis. It is good that China has now alerted people downstream of the Nepal-Tibet border crossing about the risk of a barrier lake bursting in the next couple of days.
While it is not easy, we can try to release the pressure in glacial lakes, as Bhutan did at Thorthormi Tsho. In 2009, the man-made spillway lowered the water level by five metres and helped keep farmlands and habitats safe. But the question is: when China has been developing such infrastructure for several years along the borders of Nepal, Myanmar, Bhutan and several other neighbouring countries, why has India not taken the initiative to put pressure on China to stop a Himalayan tragedy and catastrophe?
This is particularly important now. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is going to the SCO meeting in Kazakhstan, where there will be a bilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. He will also invite the Chinese President to come to India for the BRICS summit, with the 18th BRICS summit scheduled to take place in September.
In diplomacy, you have to keep the relationship sweet, but hard talk is also important. Mountain floods are becoming deadlier, and there are things we can do to minimise the loss of life and property.
The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment 2019 found that even if the world warms by 1.5°C, this region will still warm by at least another 0.3°C more than that. Under moderate-emissions assumptions, the region is headed for 2.5°C of warming by the end of the century, that is, 1.5°C plus additional warming. Under high-emissions assumptions, the warming could reach 5.5°C.
This information is very alarming. The same assessment found that the region is losing roughly one cold night and half a cold day every decade, while warm nights are becoming 1.7 nights more common each decade, and warm days 1.2 days more common. None of this is merely a forecast anymore. It is a trend already showing up in station data.
So we should not only be alerted; we should also understand that the warming of the mountains is creating conditions for dangerous rain and ice events. Glacial lakes are multiplying and filling up to the point where they can trigger outburst floods. Add to this China’s activities in Tibet. We are at the sharp end of all of this.
China’s recent activity on the Tibetan Plateau highlights how the catchment flows through three countries. A flood originating upstream does not respect a border, and neither can the response constructed to address it.
Roughly 73% of the land area lies within the floodplains of rivers, some of which rise in Nepal, including the Kosi, Gandak, Bagmati, Burhi Gandak and Mahananda. The state carries 22.1% of India’s entire flood-affected population, and according to a government estimate, roughly three-quarters of North Bihar’s residents live under a recurring flood threat. The 2017 flood alone killed 514 people and displaced or affected more than 17 million people.
The engineers’ response to this exposure has been embankments – more than 3,400 kilometres of them by 2004. But their record is genuinely uncomfortable. The flood-prone area of the state grew from 2.5 million hectares in 1954 to 6.89 million hectares in 2004.
The Kosi demonstrated exactly that danger in 2008 at Kusaha, cutting a new channel more than 100 kilometres away from its embanked course. This is a very dangerous situation for Bihar. Why does Bihar absorb the sharp end of this crisis? That question is also very relevant.
Sikkim got a preview of this failure mode in October 2023, when the South Lhonak Glacial Lake burst and tore down the Teesta Valley.
Whether the Bhote Kosi event will be formally classified as a GLOF, or glacial lake outburst flood, or as a combination of glacial events is still being worked out by scientists and authorities in the region. But different hazards are increasingly overlapping in exactly this kind of terrain.
The most important thing is that the countries exposed to these mountains and glaciers, India, China, Pakistan, Nepal and Bhutan, should coordinate to keep people safe across borders.
It is good that China has now issued an alert. Better late than never. But there should be a proper coordination committee, and I think the discussion on this should also take place at the BRICS Summit.
I don’t know whether they will do it or not, but India now wants to push this issue in the southern countries as well so that a resolution can be adopted to put pressure on China. The issue of the Himalayan flood threat and the need for greater coordination across borders should therefore also form part of the wider diplomatic conversation.
