The BJP, with Prime Minister Modi leading the party from the front, coined the slogan “Ab ki bar 400 par” just before the Parliamentary elections got underway. The INDIA bloc, on the other hand, has managed to draw attention through a show of solidarity of its leaders. By Dr. Anil Singh
The BJP’s prospects of scoring a hat trick at the Center still look fairly good after the completion of six out of seven stages of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections with the fate of the candidates at about 390 Lok Sabha seats sealed in the EVM machines. These phases have triggered a frenzy of analysis and discussions. The pre-poll surveys suggested a clear edge for the BJP over the INDIA Alliance, but the low voter turnout in the first phase and in subsequent five phases compared to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections have left experts and observers struggling to find out the reasons behind the phenomenon. The BJP, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi leading from the front, coined the slogan “Ab ki bar 400 par” before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The INDIA Alliance managed to draw attention through a show of solidarity of its leaders. The outcome on June 4 will decide the winner; however, it is appropriate to scrutinize the contemplations of the BJP and the responses of the INDIA Alliance to start with now.
The BJP’s prospects of scoring a hat trick at the Center still look fairly good after the completion of six out of seven stages of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, with the fate of the candidates at about 390 Lok Sabha seats sealed in the EVM machines. These phases have triggered a frenzy of analysis and discussions. While pre-poll surveys suggested a clear edge for the BJP over the INDIA Alliance, the low voter turnout in the first phase and the subsequent five phases compared to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections have left experts and observers struggling to understand the reasons behind this phenomenon. The BJP, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, coined the slogan “Ab ki bar 400 par” before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The INDIA Alliance managed to draw attention through a show of solidarity among its leaders. The outcome on June 4 will decide the winner; however, it is appropriate to scrutinize the strategies of the BJP and the responses of the INDIA Alliance starting now.
Having been in power at the Centre since 2014, the stakes for the BJP are very high in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The top brass of the BJP, especially PM Modi, is very sanguine about achieving a hat trick by wresting power at the Centre for the third consecutive time. Even before the commencement of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, PM Modi had given the slogan “Ab ki bar 400 paar”, denoting that the BJP will win 370 seats and NDA, including the BJP, will win over 400 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. To whet his electoral blitzkrieg, PM Modi embarked on ensuring the “Modi ki Guarantee” on various socio-economic issues to gain traction among voters.
Undeniably, the stakes for the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls are very high but the odds are not in its favour this time as compared to the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections. In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP was the contender for power and in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the Pulwama terror attack and Balakot surgical air strike helped the BJP to ride the crest of power on the back of assertive nationalism, despite the prevailing anti-incumbency.
There is a section of experts who says that the recent shift of the Congress leaders to the BJP fold on the eve of elections is a positive sign as it can help it in achieving a significant success, especially in the constituencies where the saffron party expects to win the election by a huge margin. Others remain positive regarding the effect of active election campaigning and addressing multiple rallies by PM Modi in the final that probably left a favourable impression on undecided voters.
The BJP’s promises to take action on these issues may not entirely address the voters’ concerns as increased inflation and rising unemployment can significantly affect voting sentiment with these issues becoming critical factors for the BJP as well. First, the factionalism within the BJP, the ticket allocation disputes, and the Rajput and Kshatriya protests in the Hindi belt are also major factors that could affect the BJP’s 2024 LS poll prospects.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has its share of internal squabbles and strains that have the potential to shrink the party in the next elections and erode its public trust. It is imperative to deal with these internal problems on the way to getting voters’ support. Moreover, the BJP decided to not stand for the major portion of seats. Five percent of the constituency members as party nominees is a strategic attempt to address any anti-incumbency feelings. Nevertheless, this decision has raised a lot of anger in the state heads, such that a lot of defections are being predicted. Additionally, regular demonstrations of the Kshatriya group in Gujarat, Rajasthan, and western Uttar Pradesh against the BJP. The party’s efforts to connect with the community notwithstanding their anger, most specifically towards Union Minister Parshottam Rupala’s comments, are unyielding. According to some reports, in certain localities, the Rajputs, a group that has strongly supported the BJP in the past, did not show up to vote which may hurt the party’s performance.
Prospects for INDIA Alliance
Whether the INDIA bloc can gain edge in the initial four stages of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, a subject that has gained huge popularity is the one concern. The content and the promises made in the Congress manifesto and the commitments made by the alliance parties of INDIA can change the minds of voters. The central points of the manifesto of the Congress party, Nyaya Patra, constitute a total of 5 “planks of justice” which will have 25 promises falling under them. Some of the key commitments are a pan-India socio-economic and caste census, a constitutional amendment to raise the 50% cap of the reservation for poor, tribes and backward classes, a legal assurance for MSP, and the re-establishment of statehood of Jammu and Kashmir. The Indian National Congress has the same agenda as the INDIA alliance (Independence, Democracy, Inclusion and Reform)
It aims at the development of social justice, economic well-being, and good governance. When their common ground is put forward, the voters who yearn for change/ specific policies will likely be attracted to it.
Certain pundits are forecasting that the BJP’s share of the vote would fall short of what it was in the 2019 elections, but it would probably still get the highest number of votes. The storyline has now somewhat changed, and the opposition has now gained traction and has become the one that questions the BJP’s claim of a resounding win. The competition for BJP’s slogan of ‘400 paar’ (over 400 seats) is high. This implies there will be a more tighter race.
The BJP is still the most popular party but the majority of people also notice a decline in the satisfaction towards the government, especially in urban areas, as compared to 2019. The competitor’s offerings, especially those linked to economic relief and social justice, are likely to appeal to people with worries about price hikes and unemployment. The BJP is strong in the north and west and its influence in the south has not been much. Nevertheless, the betterment of Karnataka instances shows some positivity of the BJP which may supplant the benefit that the INDIA alliance might reap in other regions.
The opposition has learned from BJP’s tactics and has avoided being entangled by some issues but Modi’s relationship with Indian voters remains strong. The Congress and INDIA members have put forward grand commitments, but the real challenge is converting them to votes. The manifesto of the Congress party and the INDIA coalition’s promises have presented new factors that could affect the election, but PM Modi’s extensive support and appeal remain formidable competitors. The final results might be guided by the factors’ performance in the forthcoming stages of the election and the way people vote. It is essential to follow the up-to-date news and in-depth analysis to get the complete picture of the escalating political situation.
The Way Forward
These puzzling issues, if not resolved, will result in a loss of votes for the BJP in strategically important constituencies. How the party deals with these obstacles and keeps its electorate base intact will be crucial for its winning three straight elections in the middle. However, political dynamics are in a state of flux and ultimately the consequences will only be known when the outcome of the election is out. All through the election, these factors will unfold, and eventually, the result will be a choice of the majority vote.
