Intro for cover story: The tragic killing of 26 tourists at Pahalgam by terrorists has shattered Kashmir’s fragile peace and escalated India-Pakistan tensions, posing a renewed threat to regional stability. A report by Riyaz Wani
A record number of tourists visited Kashmir in recent years. Statistics reveal a steep rising curve. In 2024, 2.95 million tourists visited Kashmir, up from 2.71 million in 2023 and 2.67 million in 2022. What is more, last year, the number included 43,000 foreign tourists.
According to the Economic Survey Report tabled by Chief Minister Omar Abdullah recently, this surge was a strong sign of the region’s return to peace and normalcy. Places like Gulmarg continued to charm visitors with its famous Gondola ride pulling in over 7.6 lakh tourists and earning more than Rs100 crore in revenue. Ditto for the summer capital Srinagar, which too had its moment in the spotlight, hosting its first international marathon in October last year. Events like the G20 Tourism Working Group meeting and the first F4 car show in Srinagar played a huge role in weaving a new narrative about Kashmir.
Pahalgam was the place that rivalled Gulmarg and Srinagar in drawing most of the tourists. And during June and August, it hosted thousands of pilgrims to Amarnath cave shrine. Last year alone, over five lakh pilgrims visited the shrine, a major chunk took the route through Pahalgam.
However, the terror attack at the South Kashmir resort, which resulted in the tragic loss of 26 tourists’ lives, has profoundly altered the situation. The tourists were at Baisaran, a bowl-shaped Valley close to hills when the attackers in camouflages are reported to have suddenly emerged and shot the tourists dead from a point-blank range. The news created panic, confusion and shock in the Valley. Over the past 35 years of the trouble in the Valley, it is rarely that the tourists have been targeted. This didn’t happen even in the nineties when the Valley was awash with guns. So, the deliberate killing of visitors has left people baffled.
However, the fallout of the atrocity was quick. The Valley was soon empty of the tourists. And the thousands who had made the bookings for the coming weeks and months cancelled them. There is little hope that the tourists will return to the Valley in the near term- or at least, in the numbers they have in recent years. Suddenly, the situation in the Valley is back to square one. From a place that was widely believed to have been on the path towards a sustainable normalcy, Kashmir has regained the tag of a deeply troubled place. The ghost of the past has returned to haunt the present.
Many see Pahalgam attack as yet another Pulwama-like incident, in which 41 security personnel lost their lives in a suicide bombing on their vehicle in 2019 – in fact, a notch above than that since those killed here are civilians. The aftermath is also shaping up in a similar fashion. Prime Minister Narendra Modi cut short his trip to Saudi Arabia and signaled a major shift in how India plans to deal with Pakistan going forward.
Five key measures were announced: the Indus Waters Treaty, long seen as a symbol of cross-border cooperation, was put on hold; the Attari land crossing was shut; Pakistanis will no longer get visa exemptions under SAARC; and diplomatic presence in both countries was scaled back significantly. These steps go beyond the symbolic: they reflect a deep rethink of India’s approach to its western neighbour.
The prime minister’s televised address struck a noticeably firmer tone than in the past. Switching to English midway through his speech in Bihar, he appeared to speak directly to the international community, declaring that India would not tolerate safe havens for terrorists or those who support them.
“I want to say in very clear words, those terrorists who have carried out this attack and those who conspired for this attack will get a punishment bigger than they could have ever imagined. Now the time has come to destroy the remaining ground of the terrorists. The will power of 140 crore Indians will now break the back of the masters of terror,” the PM said.
Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty has further scaled up the tension between the neighbours. The treaty has so far survived multiple wars and diplomatic flare-ups since it was signed in 1960.
Pakistan, in response, has threatened to withdraw from all bilateral agreements with India, including the 1972 Simla Agreement. The Simla Agreement, a landmark peace deal between the two nations, was signed shortly after the creation of Bangladesh in 1971.
In a statement issued after a meeting of Pakistan’s National Security Committee (NSC) – the country’s top civil-military leadership forum – Islamabad warned that any attempt to disrupt its water supply would be viewed as “an act of war.” The statement further said Pakistan was prepared to respond “with full force across the complete spectrum of national power.”
However, from hereon, the situation is expected to go down the path traversed following the Pulwama attack. Or the two countries can choose to pull back from the brink. But it won’t be easy. The Pahalgam attack has flared up the situation in India, with the media demanding revenge for the killings. But then the challenge for the Modi government would be to control the escalation, as things could easily get out of hand and lead to a full blown war between two nuclear armed neighbours, alarming the world.
Fallout for Kashmir
Would Kashmir be the same again? If anything, the Pahalgam killings have revived the old unpredictability of the situation in Kashmir. Over the past five years, and this goes to the credit of the Modi government, the situation had largely remained peaceful, so much so that its continuance was now taken for granted. On March 25, Home Minister Amit Shah told Rajya Sabha that separatism in Kashmir had become history. Shah also highlighted some data to underline the redeeming change in ground situation. While in 2004, 1,587 incidents of violence were reported in J&K, the number in 2024 dropped to just 85. Similarly, civilian deaths, according to home ministry figures, have fallen from 733 to 26, and security personnel casualties have declined from 331 to 31 over the same period. It is also obvious that the stone-pelting is now virtually non-existent. Strikes, once a routine method of expressing dissent, have also disappeared. Separatist politics has truly become extinct.
This was never the case over the preceding three decades. But, no longer. However, the Pahalgam attack has made the path to lasting peace uncertain. It will be difficult to bring the sense of certainty about the peace in the Valley back. The truth is that the violence has lingered on the fringes, in the hills, and has never been quelled completely, largely because the infiltration has continued to replenish the depleted cadre. It has already lasted for over 35 years, going through its rise and fall, and may persist in the near future in some form.
This is not to downplay the gains made on the security front in the valley in recent years. Terrorism has by and large shrunk into insignificance in the region. Jammu division, on the other hand, has been in the news in recent years mainly for security reasons. Militancy in the region has revived after over a decade of absence. Recurring attacks have brought Jammu to the edge.
It is believed that the militants mounting these attacks – both in Jammu and now also in Kashmir – have infiltrated from across the border, although their exact number is not known. The dense forests of the region have made it difficult for security forces to track them.
The situation is made even more concerning by the fact that the forest area where the militants are hiding extends to hills of South Kashmir, the district that until 2020 was a hotbed of militancy. But up until now the militants have largely chosen to stay in Jammu only, possibly because the region has a lower concentration of security forces than the Valley and also a warmer climate throughout the year. Now this seems to be changing as the frequent attacks in the Valley since the last year seem to suggest.
Kashmiris unite against the carnage
One positive takeaway for New Delhi is that this time round, Kashmiris have taken an unambiguous position against the killings. They have observed a shutdown and publicly protested against the killings, something that has never happened before. The Srinagar-based Federation of Chambers of Industries Kashmir (FCIK) extended its support to the “Kashmir Bandh” call, which was jointly issued by several social, trade, and religious organizations, including the influential United Association of Scholars (Muttahida Majlis-e-Ulema or MMU), led by Kashmir’s chief cleric and moderate Hurriyat leader Mirwaiz Umar Farooq.
“The killings have pierced our hearts. We heard that these people were first asked about their religious identities and then murdered in front of their families. This is an act beyond belief,” Mirwaiz said in his address to the congregation at Srinagar’s Grand Mosque. He said the people of Jammu and Kashmir, irrespective of their religion, strongly condemn the killings.
“Who understands the pain of losing their own better than the people of Kashmir? Who can feel the pain of the loved ones of those killed more than us? The incident has made our hearts bleed. We pray to God to give them patience. We also pray for the speedy recovery of those injured,” he added.
But at the same time, there’s an understanding of the fact that the situation can’t be normal anytime soon. More so, if the hostilities break out between India and Pakistan, which could lead to a bigger confrontation.
Fluidity of Kashmir situation
What the Pahalgam attack has done is that it has once again brought home the inherent fragility of the situation in Kashmir. While normalcy can be managed and prolonged as it was in recent years, one incident can set the situation back again, as the Pahalgam attack has done. And as has been the recurring phenomenon in Kashmir, the new outrages tend to obscure the past ones. For example, the attack on tourists on such a massive scale is first of its kind. Last year in October, the attack on Z-Morh tunnel linking Kashmir Valley with Ladakh killed seven people. Days after the tunnel attack, the militants struck again, this time at the Valley’s prominent tourist hub Gulmarg, killing three soldiers and two porters. In over three decades of the turmoil in the Valley, even when militancy was at its peak in the nineties, it is rarely that Gulmarg witnessed a militancy-related incident. As things stand, Kashmir is likely to always remain prone to sensational terror incidents, with sometimes major losses of life, bringing India and Pakistan again to the brink of war.
The only way the militancy could be credibly brought to an end is by sealing off the Line of Control. Although, the centre has fenced much of the border over the past two decades. Infiltration has continued in small numbers. To address this, the home minister Amit Shah during his April 6-9 visit had outlined his vision for tech-fortified borders. He unveiled technology-driven 26 initiatives including anti-drone technology, tunnel identification and electronic surveillance to plug the Line of Control with Pakistan. The home minister said that the results of some of these tech-driven initiatives would be available by next March, facilitating BSF personnel in performing their arduous duties with ease.
Referring to two models of electronic surveillance systems developed for deployment on the border, Shah said that they (e-surveillance models) would simplify and expedite information about intrusion or intel reception, and response to enemy actions.
“Technology is being used to identify infiltration; detect and destroy tunnels. Such experiments are underway. In the next three to four years, the entire India-Pakistan border will be enabled by e-surveillance and later this special tech-driven project will be extended to the India-Bangladesh border as well,” the Union Home Minister had shared with the soldiers.
Statehood issue pushed further down the line
When home minister Amit Shah visited Kashmir during early April, he directed security forces to ensure “zero infiltration and complete eradication of terrorism.” What he didn’t talk about was the restoration of statehood to J&K. After the Pahalgam attack, the prospect of reinstatement of statehood looks more distant than ever. The attack has again tipped Kashmir into turmoil, giving the centre a stronger reason to further delay it, if not rule it out.
Both the prime minister Narendra Modi and the home minister Amit Shah have time and again promised the restoration of statehood at an appropriate time. What they have not given so far is the timeline. This is because the existing arrangement is seen as ideal from the centre’s standpoint and the union government might be loath to alter this favourable arrangement by granting an early statehood to J&K. More so, when there also are far bigger reasons to withhold it.
The centre, it is believed, is unlikely to let go of control on the security agencies and the allied security related matters, lest it unravel the gains made in recent years. The recent rise in militancy-related violence, more so the Pahalgam attack, is likely to further dissuade the central government from handing over complete control over the region to an elected government.
Will the centre eventually settle for a truncated statehood for J&K, one where the union government directly controls the security affairs? This may or may not happen. Although this applies to no other state in the country, J&K could be made an exception for its troubled situation. But this could effectively mean no change in the existing state of affairs, except for the name-change from a union territory to a state: the current hybrid arrangement where real powers are vested in the LG does the very same thing. However, contrary to the expectations, both the LG-led senior bureaucracy and the elected government have by and large struck a good rapport so far. Chief Minister Omar Abdullah also shares a good relationship with the centre.
“It is unnecessary to pick a fight with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led NDA government at the Centre when there is not the need for one,” Omar had told the media recently. “I believe that having pragmatic relations with the Centre is key to ensure progress and development in Jammu & Kashmir.”
But, for now, it seems, the statehood is off the table as the centre would now focus to get a handle back on the situation.
India-Pak ties hit dead end
After PM Modi’s few unsuccessful attempts to reach out to Pakistan during the first two years of him being in power, the NDA government has been resolute about not engaging Pakistan unless the latter stops fomenting violence in J&K and elsewhere. But since the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019 and ever since the largely successful pacification of Kashmir, the centre doesn’t now even feel the need to reach out to Pakistan, except on its terms.
The Pahalgam attack is certain to further set the two countries apart. The differences between them are now too entrenched and irreconcilable to immediately lead to any engagement. More so since the abrogation of Article 370, which has sunk the relations between the two neighbours to their lowest. Ever since, Pakistan has sought reversal of the move which India has rejected. India, on the other hand, has asked Pakistan to end support to terrorism in Kashmir, with the latter denying it has any role in. The mutual stance ensures that nothing changes on the ground. India’s approach now is that Pakistan is no longer a factor in Kashmir.
The Pahalgam attack has not just shattered the fragile calm in Kashmir but has also pushed the region — and the India-Pakistan equation — back into a familiar, fraught uncertainty. While efforts to restore normalcy may continue, the deep scars left by the killings will take a long time to heal. For now, Kashmir stands at a crossroads once again, its future clouded by a mix of fear, fragile hope, and the daunting reality that peace in the Valley remains as elusive as ever.
