In a dramatic move that has raised diplomatic temperatures in South Asia, India has announced the suspension of the historic Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a water-sharing agreement that has withstood wars and decades of hostilities between India and Pakistan. The decision follows a brutal terror attack on Indian tourists in Pahalgam, Kashmir, which New Delhi has linked to Pakistan-based extremist groups.
Signed in 1960 under the auspices of the World Bank, the Indus Waters Treaty is one of the world’s most successful water-sharing pacts. It governs the distribution of six rivers of the Indus River system — with India receiving exclusive control over the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej) and Pakistan gaining rights over the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab).
The central government’s decision to suspend the treaty marks a sharp escalation in India’s response to cross-border terrorism, and is part of a broader package of punitive measures announced against Pakistan. These include diplomatic downgrades and economic reviews. But it seems that the treaty’s suspension is largely symbolic at this stage, with more long-term implications than immediate effects.
Despite the strong messaging, India’s ability to drastically impact Pakistan’s water supply is currently limited. The treaty, while allowing India “non-consumptive” uses such as hydroelectric power generation on the western rivers, prohibits storage or diversion of water flow that could impair Pakistan’s access.
India could potentially reduce the water flow to Pakistan by five to ten percent in the near term — a move that would mostly involve optimizing the use of eastern rivers and expediting run-of-the-river projects on western rivers. However, India lacks the necessary infrastructure to completely divert or block river flows into Pakistan. Building large storage dams or diversion structures would require several years of planning, environmental clearances, and massive investment.
Nonetheless, by suspending the treaty, India has effectively freed itself from its own previous constraints — possibly setting the stage for more assertive water policy in the future.
The announcement has triggered alarm in Islamabad. Pakistan’s energy minister, Awais Leghari, called the suspension an act of “water warfare” and vowed to challenge the move in international forums. “India’s reckless suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty is a cowardly, illegal move. Every drop is ours by right, and we will defend it with full force — legally, politically, and globally,” Leghari posted on X (formerly Twitter).
Pakistani authorities argue that India cannot unilaterally exit the treaty, which was brokered by the World Bank and includes clauses for dispute resolution and arbitration involving neutral experts. Legal experts suggest that while India can suspend implementation, a formal withdrawal would be far more complex and would likely face international pushback.
For Pakistan, the Indus River system is more than just a water source — it is the backbone of its agricultural economy, especially in the provinces of Punjab and Sindh. Over 80 per cent of Pakistan’s water needs are met by the western rivers allocated under the treaty. Meanwhile, the country is already grappling with a worsening water crisis, particularly in urban areas like Karachi, where groundwater levels are plummeting and reliance on water tankers is growing.
India, too, faces its own water challenges — especially in northwestern states where overuse and climate change are straining river systems. As climate pressures intensify, the Indus system’s strategic importance for both countries will only grow.
India’s suspension of the treaty may mark a turning point in how the two nuclear-armed neighbours approach their shared resources. While actual water flow changes may not be immediate, the political message is loud and clear: cross-border terrorism will no longer be met with restraint in the realm of bilateral agreements.
But any long-term shift would depend not just on political will, but on India’s capacity to build infrastructure and withstand international scrutiny. Meanwhile, Pakistan is preparing for a legal battle, one that could bring the world’s attention back to a treaty often lauded as a rare symbol of cooperation in an otherwise fractious relationship.
As the standoff unfolds, one thing is certain: water — the most fundamental of resources — is now firmly on the geopolitical chessboard.
