This appointment comes on the heels of the formation of a new BJP government in West Bengal, led by Suvendu Adhikari. Following the government’s formation, Suvendu Adhikari announced that, in line with election promises, illegal immigrants would be sent back to Bangladesh. Union Home Minister Amit Shah has also supported this stance. Daily operations are underway along the border to identify and deport undocumented individuals. Practically, this can be termed as a “pushback,” although India’s Ministry of External Affairs has officially stated that it will not engage in unilateral pushbacks and that any repatriation process will happen only after formal discussions with the Bangladesh government.
Bangladesh, through its border security forces, is attempting to resist these actions. Dhaka maintains that individuals with unverified identities are being labeled as illegal immigrants and pushed back, a move it strongly opposes. This has escalated tensions along the border, leading to sporadic skirmishes in certain areas.
The stance taken by the BJP and Suvendu Adhikari on the infiltration issue has triggered sharp reactions in Bangladesh. Concurrently, Bangladesh is actively seeking to strengthen its ties with China and Pakistan. There are also ongoing discussions regarding an upcoming visit by the Pakistan Army Chief to Bangladesh.
During Muhammad Yunus’s tenure as well, efforts were made to foster closer proximity with China and Pakistan. Yunus visited China and made several statements that were perceived as anti-India. There were even discussions about colluding with Pakistan to exert strategic pressure on India’s northeastern region and the critical “Chicken’s Neck” corridor near Siliguri.
However, Tarique Rahman—the leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which hopes to win the upcoming elections and rise to power—has expressed a desire to maintain strong relations with India. India has also reiterated its commitment to advancing bilateral ties with Bangladesh.
Recently, India paid tribute to Tarique Rahman’s father, the late President Ziaur Rahman, honoring him as the first person to declare Bangladesh’s independence over the radio in 1971. India explicitly respected his pro-Liberation War (Muktijuddho) stance. Furthermore, India’s External Affairs Minister, S. Jaishankar, attended the funeral services following the passing of Khaleda Zia. Later, the Bangladeshi Foreign Minister visited India to hold discussions on various bilateral matters.
However, Tarique Rahman’s office and several Bangladeshi newspapers have recently reported that he is preparing for an official visit to China. Speculation suggests that even if he does not fly directly to China, he may transit through Malaysia to get there. Prioritizing a visit to China before visiting India is seen as a diplomatic signal that may not sit well with New Delhi.
Under these circumstances, India wants Tarique Rahman to defer his China trip, at least until Dinesh Trivedi formally takes charge in Dhaka. In return, India is considering easing its visa policy. Bangladesh has long been demanding a normalization of the Indian visa system. While India assured this during minister-level talks, it has not yet been implemented. It is highly likely that steps toward this will be taken once Dinesh Trivedi assumes office.
Another critical demand from Bangladesh pertains to the Ganga Water Sharing Treaty, which is set to expire this November. Bangladesh wants India to replace it with a new agreement, mirroring the previous 30-year duration. Technical and water experts from both nations recently held a meeting in Kolkata regarding this. India has expressed its willingness to continue dialogue, though New Delhi believes a shorter-term agreement might be more appropriate given changing environmental dynamics. Nevertheless, India has not adopted a negative stance, and Bangladesh expects a positive outcome.
Dinesh Trivedi has already held a lengthy meeting with the Prime Minister. While the details of this meeting have not been made public, it is evident that appointing an experienced political leader instead of a career diplomat is a calculated move aimed at injecting new energy into bilateral ties. Critical decisions regarding the Ganga pact may be finalized after his arrival in Dhaka.
However, if Bangladesh proceeds with the China visit without altering its schedule, aiming to send a firm message to India, the diplomatic gridlock could deepen. On the other hand, sources in Bangladesh claim that even if Tarique Rahman visits China, he will refrain from making any anti-India remarks and will not follow the friction-heavy path paved by Yunus.
Dhaka believes it can maintain balanced, positive relations with both India and China, aligning with Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s foundational foreign policy doctrine: “Friendship to all, malice towards none.”
Meanwhile, India has highlighted that Bangladesh is facing a severe power crisis, with Jamaat-e-Islami launching protests against rising electricity tariffs. India is in a position to offer significant assistance to mitigate this energy crisis.
New Delhi also cautions that over-reliance on China could ultimately harm Bangladesh’s long-term interests, citing the example of Sri Lanka, which faced severe economic and strategic distress due to heavy Chinese influence. India remains optimistic that just as Sheikh Hasina maintained a safe distance from such debt traps, the BNP will exercise similar caution.
Ultimately, while the current geopolitical landscape remains intricate, both sides maintain that sustainable solutions can be reached through consistent dialogue and diplomatic engagement.
