January 2025 saw India grappling with rising temperatures, marking the third warmest January in 125 years for the country. With climate change accelerating, the nation faces a mounting crisis, from crop damage to escalating health risks, caused by extreme heat. A report by Aayush Goel
The environmental nightmare of global warming stares the world in the face. After 2024 was declared the warmest year, it recorded the month of January 2025 as the third warmest in India since 1901. The dreaded global warming is getting real with each passing year.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the all-India mean temperature recorded last month was 18.98 degrees Celsius, up by 0.94 degrees Celsius. Likewise, the minimum temperature jumped by 1.04 degrees Celsius, taking the all-India monthly average minimum temperature to 12.51 degrees Celsius. The World Economic Forum ranked extreme weather events amplified by climate change as the second most considerable global risk after armed conflict and war.
According to The Copernicus Climate Change Service report, January this year was 0.09C hotter than the previous high of January 2024 – a “sizeable margin” in global temperature terms. Indian meteorologists attributed multiple factors for a warm January, which is normally dominated by cold waves to severe cold waves and cold day conditions.
During the winter season, rainfall or snowfall over the plains of the northwest and the hills of north India is mainly caused by the passing streams of western disturbances and the eastward propagating wind bands that carry moisture. Last month, seven streams of western disturbances moved across north India but didn’t do the expected. “Most of these western disturbances remained devoid of moisture being pumped in from the Arabian Sea, hence there was below normal rainfall or snowfall along the western Himalayas, covering Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, DG, IMD. Only during a handful of days, rain and snowfall were realized over North and Northwest India leaving January largely dry. IMD’s rainfall statistics for last month showed that the country received 72 percent below-normal rainfall. Interestingly the most rainfall-deficient regions were central India (-96 percent) and northwest India (-80 percent), which are largely agrarian states.
The warming effect has been universal and the key reason remains the weak phase of La Nina. The abnormal cooling of the sea waters along the equatorial Pacific Ocean is one of the reasons why the cool weather evaded large parts of India last month. The story doesn’t end here the Met Department has forecast a warm February over most parts of the country this year, with both maximum and minimum temperatures expected to remain above normal. The impact has rattled scientists across the world. Scientists warn that every fraction of a degree of warming increases the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events like heatwaves, heavy rainfall and droughts.
Weak La Nina Impact
While several parts of the world experienced cold temperatures and winter chills, the planet continued to be warm, breaching past records. The Copernicus Climate Change Service said January was 1.75 degrees hotter than pre-industrial times, extending a persistent run of historic highs over 2023 and 2024, as human-caused greenhouse gas emissions heat the planet. Climate scientists had expected this exceptional spell to subside after a warming El Nino event peaked in January 2024 and conditions gradually shifted to a cooling La Nina phase. But the heat has lingered at record or near-record levels ever since, sparking debate among scientists about what other factors could be driving warming to the top end of expectations.
Scientists worry that the heat waves across the oceans have become so large and strong that they are overwhelming the cooling influence of La Niña. “The fact that we’re still seeing record temperatures outside the influence of El Nino is a little surprising,” said Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Copernicus assesses that La Nina has not yet fully developed, and the world is currently in neutral conditions between the two phases. However, scientists feel even if La Nina does fully emerge, its cooling effect may not be enough to temporarily curb global temperatures – which are also affected by factors like the extreme heat seen in other ocean basins, and the main driver of climate change: emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases. It may be noted that greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels remain the primary driver of record temperatures. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) warned in December 2024 that warming fueled by these emissions might persist in 2025, despite La Nina.
The record-breaking January temperatures align with research suggesting an acceleration in global warming. Bill McGuire, a climate scientist from University College, London, said it was “astonishing and frankly, terrifying” that January remained at record highs despite La Nina emerging.
India faces challenge
Highlighting the consequences of globally increasing climate risks, a recent report by Germanwatch mentions that in the 30 years until 2022, more than 765,000 people lost their lives worldwide due to more than 9,400 extreme weather events, which caused economic damages totalling 4.2 trillion US dollars (inflation-adjusted). India ranked 6th and China ranked 2nd among the ten most affected countries worldwide over the past three decades.
In the wake of the existent trends, the heat wave is expected to emerge as the key disaster in India. Talking of immediate impact in the wake of the likely dry and warm February, IMD has warned of adversity on the health of standing wheat crops. Chickpea and mustard could experience early maturity due to such weather conditions. Fruits like apples could see early bud break, affecting the yield and quality.
“Below-normal rainfall along with higher temperature over the plains of northwest India would have a significant adverse impact on the standing crops like wheat at flowering and grain filling stages”, IMD DG Mohapatra said at the monthly weather briefing. “Crops like mustard and chickpea may also experience early maturity. Horticultural crops like apple and other temperate stone fruits may experience premature bud break and early flowering due to warmer temperatures, resulting in poor fruit setting and quality, which may ultimately reflect in poor yield,” he added. Major wheat-producing states such as Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan are likely to be the most affected. Other wheat producers, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, were likely to be impacted less with better rainfall, and therefore lower temperatures.
Meanwhile, according to experts, the long-term effect of annual heat wave crises will be multifaceted, affecting public health, agriculture, energy supply, and overall economic stability. It will make ninety percent of Indians vulnerable to heat-related health issues. This will majorly burden not-so-great healthcare systems, especially in rural areas. The health impact would eventually impact the productivity of the workforce. The World Bank estimates that India could account for 34 million job losses due to heat-stress-related productivity decline by 2030.
The elevated temperatures would further enhance water stress in the country which impacts fifty-four percent of India’s land according to the World Resources Institute (WRI). India has 18 percent of the world’s population and only 4 percent of its fresh water. High temperatures can also lead to crop failures, reduced yields, and increased irrigation demands affecting food security and water management. The heat waves will affect the power industry in India with increased demand for cooling systems. This will have an impact on the availability of power for industries and will pose a challenge for the manufacturing sector. Crisil Intelligence noted that India’s electricity demand rose by approximately 2.2% year-on-year to 138 billion units in January 2025, driven by strong industrial activity and warmer winter conditions.
The country is no longer oblivious to the fast-approaching danger and the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has come up with a National Framework for Heatwave Mitigation and Management (2024). The states, districts and cities are being made to develop Heat Action Plans (HAPs), a structured approach to mitigating heat wave impacts at the root level.
