The historic Indus Water Treaty, signed in September 1960 which governs the use of six rivers shared between India and Pakistan has now been suspended by the central government following the barbaric terror attack on tourists in Kashmir’s Pahalgam.
The move is one of the five strict measures taken against Pakistan which has triggered concern in the country. While this may have significant consequences in the long-term, the immediate effects are expected to be minimal.
Under the agreement, India has exclusive control over the eastern rivers, including Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi while Pakistan relies on the western rivers, Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. Over 80 per cent of water supply comes from these rivers which turn this water treaty into a lifeline for the agriculturally vital provinces of Punjab and Sindh.
However, the question remains if India can stop water to enter Pakistan and leave it dry? Already grappling with groundwater depletion and a growing dependence on private water tankers in urban areas like Karachi, Pakistan’s water vulnerability is stark. Yet, India’s suspension of the treaty is more symbolic than immediately impactful.
On ground, India at present lacks the storage infrastructure to completely block or divert the flow of water from the Indus system.
India could reduce water flow to the neighbouring country by five to 10 per cent in the near future. The treaty also bars India from constructing storage dams on the western rivers, permitting only “run-of-the-river” hydroelectric projects that do not obstruct water flow.
By suspending the treaty, India effectively removes these self-imposed restrictions. However, any significant move to construct reservoir dams would take years to materialize, involving complex environmental assessments, substantial investment, and extensive planning.
Meanwhile, Pakistan has called the suspension an act of “water warfare” and an illegal move. Vowing to challenge the move legally, Pakistan said India cannot unilaterally exit from a treaty that involves global organisations like the World Bank.
“India’s reckless suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty is an act of water warfare; a cowardly, illegal move. Every drop is ours by right, and we will defend it with full force – legally, politically, and globally,” Pakistan’s energy minister Awais Leghari posted on X.
