After enjoying sole power from 2014 to 2019 during the Modi wave, the BJP formed a coalition with the newly created JJP, with the party head Dushyant Chautala as Deputy CM, from 2019 to 2024. Now, it stands alone, facing strong anti-incumbency. A report by Aayush Goel
Seeking a third term in the forthcoming Haryana assembly elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has a tough road ahead, especially following the recent setback in Lok Sabha elections. The party surely is not oblivious to the fact and is going to a great length to ensure that they manage to battle anti-incumbency and ensure maximum winnability. In the Lok Sabha elections that concluded in June, the BJP which was pompously laying claim to a minimum of 8 out of 10 seats in the state was confined to just five and witnessed a vote share drop by almost 15 percent.
The BJP led in 44 of the state’s 90 assembly segments, the Congress in 42, and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in 4. The results were a morale booster for Congress and an eye opener for BJP whose last-minute CM-change formula failed to work. The Nayab Singh Saini-led government got in damage control and voter-wooing mood by making lucrative pre-poll announcements. Though the party is heavily banking on these, there are several issues plaguing its prospects.
According to the Leader of the Opposition, Bhupinder Singh Hooda, the elections will mark an end to BJP’s rule in the state and the return of Congress. “The BJP has done nothing in the name of development in Haryana in these 10 years. The ruling party has just tried to fool people with slogans. People are waiting for 5 October. The results on 8 October will mark the ouster of the BJP government from Haryana,” said Hooda.
The BJP, however, is confident of a third term as party spokesperson Sanjay Sharma says, “We have worked hard during our tenure of 10 years and people have felt the difference in their day-to-day lives. Even for this election, that party is ready to fight for a third victory. We have multiple teams on the ground assessing the situation and working on making any modifications to campaign plans. We have researched candidates and will prioritize winnability. We are activating our panna pramukhs. The workers are mobilized on one principle that every vote counts.”
A recent post-Lok Sabha poll survey titled Lokniti by Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) indicates that Congress made substantial inroads into BJP’s traditional voter base in Haryana. According to the survey, while BJP retained most of its upper-caste votes, it saw a significant decline in OBC support, with nearly 29 percent shifting towards the Congress. The Congress also gained support among Dalit voters, with two-thirds of this bloc voting for it in the general elections. It further secured the crucial Jat vote, with two of every three Jats siding with them. Like Lok Sabha, Jats are expected to be the key deciding factor in Vidhan Sabha polls. The BJP’s fallout with Dushyant Chautala’s JJP (Janayak Janata Party) has dented its Jat voter base amidst other factors.
Anti-incumbency
Anti-incumbency is a strong sentiment in the state of Haryana. Since 1977, voters in Haryana have never given any party an absolute majority (more than 45 of the total 90 seats) for a second consecutive time. The party, having enjoyed sole power for five years from 2014-21019 during the Modi wave had a coalition government with newly formed JJP with Dushyant Chautala as Deputy CM from 2019 to 2024. It now stands alone facing strong anti-incumbency. The voters are questioning the party over national issues like unemployment, inflation, and local grievances like civic crises, pending recruitments, or resentment against incumbent legislators. The opposition Congress has found an easy campaign tool in the form of this anti-incumbency narrative as seen through its popular campaign ‘Haryana Maange Hisaab’ questioning the 10-year rule and highlighting reported failures.
Farmers’ discontent
Haryana is an agrarian state that simmered in anti-BJP sentiment after the 2021 farmer protests. Standing with Punjab farmers, who have continued the protests ever since, the farming community is upset over Haryana government sealing of Shambhu border in 2024 and alleged violence against farmers headed for Delhi. The Haryana government, then led by ML Khattar, stopped farmers from marching from Punjab to Delhi near Ambala and Hisar and they have been resenting ever since. The BJP leaders have faced the wrath during Lok Sabha elections where the majority were barred even from entering villages by farmers. As a damage control exercise, CM Saini has announced MSP on all 24 crops as against 14 earlier but it has not made any major impact. The farmer associations claim this a mere eyewash saying crops like ragi, soybean, kala seed (fennel), jute, khopra (copra), moong, niger seed, Suraj Mukhi (sunflower), jaun (barley), and jowar (sorghum) added to the list have marginal production in the state.
Amidst the resentment, the state government reportedly went on to nominate police officers who used “brutal force” against protesting farmers for gallantry medals on August 15. The furore left BJP rattled though they were never awarded. The latest factor adding to the fire was a recent statement issued by BJP MP from Himachal, Kangna Ranaut, through which she compared farmer protests with Bangladesh crises and alleged rapes and murders by protesting farmers. Though the BJP has distanced itself from the statement, the damage is done as Haryana farmers seek an apology and refuse to let BJP leaders campaign in their areas.
Caste dynamics and polarization
Though the BJP has tried to balance the caste equation by opting for an OBC CM, it is losing out on Jats who not just form a major chunk of voters but are decisive in the majority of state elections. The party’s failure to highlight any Jat leader prominently in Lok Sabha elections has weakened its support base in Jats. Similarly, the Ahirs of Ahirwal region which contributed majorly to Lok Sabha victory too are not happy.
The tallest leader and six-time MP, Rao Inderjit Singh was retained only as MoS while former state CM ML Khattar despite being one one-time MP was included in cabinet as Power and Housing Minister. The Ahirs which have clout in around 25 assembly segments are upset over alleged indifference by BJP. Ahir leaders like Rao Inderjit Singh’s daughter Arti Rao, and former Minister Rao Narbir have openly announced that they will contest elections with or without the party. Narbir has warned the BJP to choose the right people or it will be wiped off the Ahirwal. The party trying to make up to Rao Inderjit has been all for fielding Arti from the segment of her choice after denying her a ticket in 2014 and 2019.
The party also faces tough resistance from Meo-muslims who dominate five assembly segments. The Meos nurse anti-BJP sentiments after the 2023 riots and eventual bulldozer action, which was further aggravated by Home Minister Amit Shah’s statements about reservation to Muslims and the Waqf Board Bill.
While factionalism in the Haryana Congress has been the talk of the nation, BJP is not untouched by it either. Many party leaders are upset over extra attention to the GT road belt and Khattar camp. Union minister Rao Inderjit Singh is upset at not getting a Cabinet rank, his close associate Bhiwani MP Dharambir Singh too not just being vocal about the state leadership but has also announced this will be his last election. His brother, Rajbir Singh Lala has sought a Congress ticket from Tosham. Former Minister Rao Narbir Singh who was denied a ticket in 2019 too is upset and reportedly weighing all his options. The former Home Minister Anil Vij has been sulking ever since he was dropped from the state cabinet in March this year.
The Phogat factor
The party which has already been facing image crises owing to treatment meted out to the wrestlers during the protest against Wrestling Federation of India (WFI) former chief and former BJP MP Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh has been caught in the crossfire again after the Paris Olympics. Haryana contributed maximum to the country’s sports scene and was handed out one of the lowest funds in Khelo Bharat.
Vinesh Phogat’s disqualification from the Paris Olympics, where she was eyeing a gold medal, though not a political issue turned against BJP as videos of her being dragged during wrestlers’ protest went viral. The party was accused of warming up to her for political mileage after mistreatment. Wrestlers like Bajrang Punia and Sakshi Malik openly voiced the fact.
Congress MP Deepender Hooda has been at the forefront in welcoming Vinesh Phogat and Congress has managed to strengthen its base in the sporting community. The Agniveer issue, too, is believed to have led to a sizable dent in the BJP’s prospects in Haryana, with the Congress demanding its rollback.
