Bihar 2025: Seat-sharing struggle in both NDA and Mahagathbandhan; Congress pushes for more winnable constituencies, RJD resists; In NDA, Chirag Paswan eyes bigger role as allies haggle over winnable seats
With Assembly elections drawing closer in Bihar, the real contest for now is not between the NDA and the Opposition Mahagathbandhan but within the alliances themselves. Both the RJD-Congress bloc and the JD(U)-BJP-LJP camp are caught in tough negotiations over seat-sharing, with each partner insisting on a bigger slice of “winnable” constituencies.
In the Opposition camp, the Congress has taken a strong stance, demanding around 70 seats out of the 243 in the Assembly — similar to its 2020 tally — but this time it wants a larger share of winnable constituencies. Its leaders claim that the RJD keeps the best seats for itself, leaving Congress to fight on weaker turf. The RJD, meanwhile, seems reluctant to cede ground, especially with new allies like the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), the Pasupati Paras faction of the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), and Mukesh Sahani’s Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) in the mix. The presence of Left parties further complicates the arithmetic.
In the 2020 Assembly polls, the RJD contested 144 seats and won 75, emerging as the single-largest party. The Congress could manage only 19 wins. Together, the Opposition fell short as the NDA secured 125 seats. This time, with broader alliances and sharper ambitions, arriving at a consensus is becoming more difficult but, as analysts point, posturing too is part of the game and eventually everything falls in place.
The NDA is facing its own issues. Chirag Paswan, Union Minister and leader of the LJP (Ram Vilas), is said to be pushing aggressively for winnable constituencies. Riding high after his party’s clean sweep in the Lok Sabha elections — where the LJP contested five seats and won all — Paswan is talking of “100 percent strike rate” in the Assembly polls. His assertiveness is being read as more than just bargaining, a possible projection as a chief ministerial candidate.
For Paswan, the timing is critical. With Chief Minister Nitish Kumar reportedly ailing and speculation rife about a leadership transition in the JD(U), the young LJP leader senses a rare opening. “It is now or never,” a senior party functionary remarked, underlining his determination to stake claim to Bihar’s top job.
Seat distribution within the NDA is expected to follow a tightrope balance—JD(U) around 101–103 seats, BJP 101–103, LJP 25–28, HAM (Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha) 6–7, and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Morcha 4–5—according to the local buzz. How it happens remains to be seen, for now the battle of Bihar 2025 is being fought across negotiating tables in both blocs.
