Prime Minister Narendra Modi
By Jayanta Ghosal
It is now evident to the entire world that Pakistan is passing through an extremely difficult phase. Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir believed that by acting as a mediator between Iran and the United States, Pakistan could establish itself as an important international peace broker. The expectation was that such a role would improve Pakistan’s global standing, strengthen its ties with Washington, and eventually help it secure greater financial support from the United States.
However, that strategy did not work. Instead, the regional situation has become even more volatile. The ceasefire efforts have failed, tensions have once again moved towards a war-like situation, and US President Donald Trump has adopted a far more combative approach. After consultations with NATO allies, he has argued for a stronger military response wherever necessary. As a result, Pakistan’s strategic position has become even more fragile.
For quite some time now, Pakistan has been trying to reopen discussions with India. It has gradually realised that India’s hardline position is creating serious economic pressure on Pakistan. One of Pakistan’s biggest concerns remains water. The country is heavily dependent on the Indus River system, and despite aggressive statements made by Pakistani ministers, such rhetoric has yielded no practical benefit. If India were to stop or significantly restrict the flow of water under the Indus system, Pakistan would face an enormous crisis. Apart from water, Pakistan is also under severe economic pressure and increasingly understands that continued confrontation serves little purpose. Many within Pakistan now believe that a practical understanding or dialogue with India would ultimately be in Pakistan’s own interest.
Even after the abrogation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan could do very little to change the situation. During his tenure as Army Chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa had also explored the possibility of restarting dialogue with India. At that time, the United States was supportive of such an initiative, believing that improved India-Pakistan relations would contribute to regional stability.
However, after Operation Sindoor, India’s position has become considerably stronger. At the same time, Pakistan’s conduct has become even more exposed. While Pakistan continues to speak about peace publicly, India believes it has not abandoned its support for terrorism. According to the Indian establishment, Pakistan continues to wage a proxy war inside India. There has been no visible change in Pakistan’s internal strategic thinking.
Because of this, several Pakistani think tanks, NGOs and private organisations have begun encouraging third-party facilitators and peace brokers to explore whether some form of negotiation between India and Pakistan can once again become possible. Such unofficial efforts are not new. Similar attempts have been made in the past.
There is nothing inherently wrong if individuals or independent organisations attempt to create an environment for dialogue between India and Pakistan. Any genuine effort towards peace can always be viewed positively. In fact, Narendra Modi himself made serious attempts to engage Pakistan directly after becoming Prime Minister.
At his swearing-in ceremony in 2014, Modi invited the heads of government of all SAARC nations, including then Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. The principal objective behind inviting all SAARC leaders was to create an opportunity for an early dialogue with Nawaz Sharif. Modi even went beyond diplomatic protocol by visiting Pakistan to attend a family wedding at Nawaz Sharif’s residence, an unprecedented personal gesture between the leaders of the two countries.
Despite those efforts, relations continued to deteriorate. Several major incidents followed, tensions escalated repeatedly into war-like situations, India adopted a far more aggressive security posture, and Pakistan had to bear the consequences of that shift.
Recently, another discussion generated attention when RSS leader Ram Madhav attended a meeting in Colombo organised by a private think tank. The meeting included discussions on whether future India-Pakistan talks could become possible under a peace-building framework. Once news of the meeting became public, many assumed that it represented an unofficial peace initiative.
RSS leader Ram Madhav
In reality, however, it had no official backing. It was neither authorised nor sponsored by the Government of India or the Government of Pakistan, nor was it part of any formal Track-II diplomatic initiative between the two governments. When details of the meeting were leaked, the controversy only deepened.
India’s Foreign Secretary immediately clarified that the Government of India had no role whatsoever in organising or endorsing the discussion. Ram Madhav also explained that he had simply accepted an invitation to participate in a private discussion. He stated that he had attended in his personal capacity, shared his views, and later chose not to elaborate further because of the sensitive nature of the issue.
The larger point, according to the current thinking within the Indian leadership, is that if Track-II diplomacy is to take place, it cannot be conducted in public. Diplomatic engagement involves multiple stakeholders, conflicting interests and several layers of negotiation. Publicising every conversation before any formal progress is made, defeats the very purpose of such backchannel diplomacy.
Another controversy emerged when an Indian NGO, along with several prominent civil society personalities, sent an open letter to the Prime Ministers of India and Pakistan urging them to restart dialogue between the two countries. The letter appealed for fresh talks but made no mention of India’s long-standing precondition regarding Pakistan-sponsored terrorism. It simply requested that both governments resume communication.
The matter became even more controversial after the letter was leaked to the media. Former Union Minister Mani Shankar Aiyar was among the signatories. Following the leak, both the BJP and the Ministry of External Affairs chose not to attach any importance to the initiative, making it clear that it had no official standing.
The broader view within the government is that if such initiatives are to be undertaken, they should be conducted quietly and discreetly. Only when conditions become sufficiently mature should they be allowed to evolve into formal diplomatic engagement.
Another important question is whether Pakistan itself genuinely wants meaningful dialogue or is merely seeking tactical engagement under difficult circumstances. This is something that India believes must be carefully assessed before any future steps are taken.
At present, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP leadership believe that India should not publicly express any willingness to restart talks with Pakistan. With Assembly elections approaching in Punjab and Uttar Pradesh, Pakistan remains a politically significant issue in both states.
Given the continued cross-border attacks, Pakistan’s aggressive rhetoric, and India’s concerns over terrorism, the government believes that agreeing to dialogue at this stage could be interpreted as a sign of weakness. Such a perception is something the BJP leadership is unwilling to allow.
For now, therefore, the relationship remains in a state of “no war, no peace”. India is not seeking military escalation, but neither is Narendra Modi prepared to resume any formal dialogue with Pakistan under the present circumstances.
