Kashmir faces an unprecedented dry winter, with historic Achabal spring running dry, Gulmarg’s famous ski slopes left bare, and vital water sources depleting. As the region grapples with climate change, the fallout is threatening agriculture, tourism, and livelihoods. A report by Riyaz Wani
For days in mid-February, the ancient spring at Achabal Mughal garden in south Kashmir’s Anantnag district ran dry due to a largely dry winter, during which Kashmir has recorded an 80 percent precipitation deficit in January and February. This is believed to be the first time in living memory that the spring that provides water to nearly 20 surrounding villages ceased to flow, triggering a water crisis. Although the spring was restored following a light snowfall in the hills, both the symbolism and fallout of Achabal spring wasn’t lost on anyone.
Built by Noor Jahan, wife of Mughal Emperor Jahangir, in the 17th century, the spring has never run dry before, claim the locals.
“In my entire life, I have never seen the spring being depleted of water,” said Mohammad Ashraf, 65. “Nor has father told me of such an occurrence in his lifetime.”
However, running dry of the Achabal spring isn’t the only instance of the growing impact of climate change in the Valley. In Gulmarg, where winter sports fuel the local economy, the famed ski slopes are nearly bare, forcing the government to postpone winter games which were due to be held from February 22 to 25. This has dealt blow to hoteliers, ski instructors, and small businesses that count on tourist footfall. For many, the winter season isn’t just about recreation—it’s their livelihood. Without snow, their earnings disappear.
Around 300 athletes from all over the country were expected to compete in four snow sports such as ski mountaineering, alpine skiing, snowboard, and Nordic skiing in the games. Although Gulmarg has witnessed some slight snowfall since then, the government doesn’t deem it sufficient to hold the games.
“The administration is closely monitoring the snowfall situation. Experts from the Ski Federation will assess the slopes in the coming days, and if they approve, the games could be held in the first week of March,” J&K Chief Minister said while speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the inaugural event for a year-round helicopter service in Gulmarg,
“At present, we are not in a position to make an announcement. If there is sufficient snowfall, the games will be held in early March; otherwise, it will not be feasible due to the approaching summer,” he added.
According to J&K’s meteorological department, the Valley recorded temperatures 12 degrees Celsius above normal in February, causing crops that should remain dormant until late February to become active in winter only.
The decline is conspicuously visible in Jhelum, the Valley’s primary water source, crucial for irrigation, drinking water, and hydroelectric power. The current data from the Irrigation and Flood Control Department reveals that water levels in the river have fallen below the Reduced Level (RL) of zero at Sangam, with similar declines recorded at Ram Munshi Bagh and Asham. Tributaries such as Lidder, Pohru, and Ferozpora are also flowing at unprecedented lows.
For now, this has affected the Valley’s hydropower generation the most, plummeting it by a whopping 84 percent. This has forced the administration to rely on external sources to meet the shortfall. Power plants generated only 250 MW in January, a fraction of the 1200 MW capacity, with February seeing a further 5% decline. Unless water levels improve, the situation is expected to deteriorate.
Glacier replenishment takes a hit
The snowfall, however, is important not merely for hydropower or tourism but as a lifeline for the glaciers which keep our rivers and streams flowing and agriculture fields irrigated. High-altitude areas retain their sub-zero temperatures, enabling the snow to endure throughout the year. Kashmir witnesses its heaviest snow during chilai kalan and the snowfall progressively reduces in February and March when spring sets in. This keeps glaciers replenished. Alarmingly, the experts fear a drastic reduction in snowfall by the century’s end, and this can have horrific consequences not just for Kashmir but the region.
Going forward, agriculture and horticulture are also going to be hit hard if the current dry spell lingers. With glaciers failing to replenish due to growing snow-deficit, and also melting prematurely due to an unusually warm winter, farmers are worried about the upcoming agriculture season. The likelihood of an impending drought could devastate apple orchards, paddy fields, and vegetable farms.
Kashmir witnesses its heaviest snow during chilai kalan and the snowfall progressively reduces in February and March when spring sets in. But this winter December, January and February have largely been dry, the last such seasons were in 2015 and 2018. Last winter, however, was no different. Though snow was delayed, February in 2024 witnessed recurring precipitation.
Heavy snow in these two months helps in the glacier formation which in turn charges up the Valley’s water bodies through summer. So increasing the frequency of dry winters signals trouble. More so, at a time when the Valley’s major glaciers have shown marked signs of depletion in recent decades. Biggest of them is the Kolahai glacier. The area of Kolahai, according to an estimate, has retreated to 11.24 square kilometers from 13.87 sq kms since 1976.
Impact on tourism
Needless to say, the tourism sector could be another casualty. Inadequate snowfall, even in the upper reaches, has already led to a sharp decline in visitors to the popular winter destinations like Gulmarg and Pahalgam, with hoteliers reporting a 50% drop in bookings.
“International tourism, particularly in the adventure and recreational segments, has sadly experienced a substantial downturn,” Faiz Ahmad Bakshi, secretary general of the Kashmir Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said. This decline directly impacts foreign exchange earnings and employment in the tourism sector.”
Over the last three years, the growing tourism has gone a long way to shore up the Kashmir economy and brought back employment lost to the successive security and Covid-19 lockdown. The boom in tourism, which forms 6.8 percent of Kashmir’s GDP and employs over two million people, has also had a positive spillover effect on other sectors.
Could there still be a possibility of snowfall? Yes, the Valley has witnessed some heavy snowfalls in March in the past, but it is less likely than in the previous three months. Also, snowfall in March, according to weather experts, is less helpful in terms of glacier replenishment in view of the relative rise in temperature in the month.
Going forward, however, the Valley will need a compensatory increase in rainfall to have a normal agriculture season.
